12-31-2012, 01:34 PM

01-07-2013, 11:21 AM

[attachment=8]

Here is VW SFH inventory from public MLS. Note that in 2012 the big runup was really in January. From Feb 1st to April 1st 2012, inventory stalled out at 800. We're starting this year about +100. Do we expect the big January listings bonanza again?

Here is VW SFH inventory from public MLS. Note that in 2012 the big runup was really in January. From Feb 1st to April 1st 2012, inventory stalled out at 800. We're starting this year about +100. Do we expect the big January listings bonanza again?

01-10-2013, 08:59 AM

[attachment=10]

Here is the newest inventory graph.

Since the beginning of the year the average daily increase was: 79

At this rate we would reach 13,000 in 10 days (Jan-20-13)

At this rate we would reach 21,000 in 98 days (Apr-18-13)

and 25,000 by June 21, 2013

So, far inventory has increased faster in 2013 than in 2012.

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Here is the newest inventory graph.

Since the beginning of the year the average daily increase was: 79

At this rate we would reach 13,000 in 10 days (Jan-20-13)

At this rate we would reach 21,000 in 98 days (Apr-18-13)

and 25,000 by June 21, 2013

So, far inventory has increased faster in 2013 than in 2012.

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

01-24-2013, 10:20 AM

[attachment=16]

Inventory is at the 2nd highest level for this time of year. Only 2009 was higher and inventory is climbing much faster than it did in 2009. This is a pretty strong indication that we will have price declines greater than 2008-2009.

Over the last week the average daily increase was:

96

At this rate we would reach 14,000 in 3 days (Jan-27-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 73 days (Apr-06-13)

and 25,000 by June 3, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Inventory is at the 2nd highest level for this time of year. Only 2009 was higher and inventory is climbing much faster than it did in 2009. This is a pretty strong indication that we will have price declines greater than 2008-2009.

Over the last week the average daily increase was:

96

At this rate we would reach 14,000 in 3 days (Jan-27-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 73 days (Apr-06-13)

and 25,000 by June 3, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

01-31-2013, 11:26 AM

[attachment=22]

Over the last week the average daily increase was:

54

At this rate we would reach 15,000 in 15 days (Feb-15-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 73 days (Apr-14-13)

and 25,000 by June 16, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Over the last week the average daily increase was:

54

At this rate we would reach 15,000 in 15 days (Feb-15-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 73 days (Apr-14-13)

and 25,000 by June 16, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

02-07-2013, 02:41 PM

[attachment=25]

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

73

At this rate we would reach 15,000 in 8 days (Feb-15-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 77 days (Apr-25-13)

and 25,000 by July 2, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

73

At this rate we would reach 15,000 in 8 days (Feb-15-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 77 days (Apr-25-13)

and 25,000 by July 2, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

02-14-2013, 09:53 AM

[attachment=29]

Inventory is just about to pass the 2009 level for this time of year and move into record territory.

Last year the rate of inventory growth slowed in the second half of February and basically stayed at that slope until July. This year it seems to be staying at a steeper slope but it is too early to tell if that will continue.

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

72

At this rate we would reach 15,000 in 0 days (Feb-14-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 69 days (Apr-24-13)

and 25,000 by July 2, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Inventory is just about to pass the 2009 level for this time of year and move into record territory.

Last year the rate of inventory growth slowed in the second half of February and basically stayed at that slope until July. This year it seems to be staying at a steeper slope but it is too early to tell if that will continue.

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

72

At this rate we would reach 15,000 in 0 days (Feb-14-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 69 days (Apr-24-13)

and 25,000 by July 2, 2013

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

02-21-2013, 09:44 AM

[attachment=30]

Inventory is now at the highest point it has been in the last 8 years for this time of year.

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

59

At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 11 days (Mar-04-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 79 days (May-10-13)

and 25,000 by

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Inventory is now at the highest point it has been in the last 8 years for this time of year.

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

59

At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 11 days (Mar-04-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 79 days (May-10-13)

and 25,000 by

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

02-28-2013, 09:39 AM

[attachment=31]

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

56

At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 6 days (Mar-06-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 77 days (May-16-13)

and 25,000 by August 13, 2013

Last year during this same 30 day period the averages was: 57

Last week the average was 59

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

56

At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 6 days (Mar-06-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 77 days (May-16-13)

and 25,000 by August 13, 2013

Last year during this same 30 day period the averages was: 57

Last week the average was 59

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

03-07-2013, 09:12 AM

[attachment=33]

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

55

At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 5 days (Mar-12-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 78 days (May-23-13)

and 25,000 by August 22, 2013

Last year during this same 30 day period the averages was: 57

Last week the average was 56

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!

Over the last 30 days the average daily increase was:

55

At this rate we would reach 16,000 in 5 days (Mar-12-13)

At this rate we would reach 20,000 in 78 days (May-23-13)

and 25,000 by August 22, 2013

Last year during this same 30 day period the averages was: 57

Last week the average was 56

Thanks PaulB for the numbers!