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+--- Thread: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. (/showthread.php?tid=5251)
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - JimmyWW - 02-16-2015
(02-16-2015, 05:06 PM)alexcanuck2.0 Wrote: We already have more than a sniff! I'm sure you've seen this one:
<b>Property values plummet on B.C.'s Mayne and Saturna islands.
Over the last four years, Alan Watts has watched the assessed value of his Mayne Island property plummet by more than a third.
Yes indeed assessed values are down, but the question is really when the sellers will get the memo? Where I'm looking, it has taken two years in some cases for sellers to drop their ludicrous prices by $100,000...all very well for facts to be facts, but if they won't sell, what does it mean?
(02-16-2015, 05:06 PM)alexcanuck2.0 Wrote: I really don't think any sort of a bottom is remotely in yet, but prices have been declining in our target areas for sure. Whether it continues to drift down for years (death-by-a-thousand-cuts "soft landing") or breaks quickly depends on the bigger picture world economic problems and is yet to be seen.
Completely agree with you here. My own best guess is a kind of slow drift down but others think there will be a more raid decline this year/next. All I'm saying is if we don't see it this year/next then it will look like the slow drift down for many years to come. I still see a lot of sellers out there looking for the "greater fool"... relisting each spring for $30,000 less, etc.
Full respects to you for your patience and drive!
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - alexcanuck2.0 - 02-17-2015
Sellers (that's sellers, not delusional listers) are getting the memo. Assessments are supposed to be based on sales, and I believe for the most part they are.
Actual sales are what matters, serial re-listers chasing the market down and properties that aren't listed because they have more owing than they could possibly sell for merely represent pent-up supply. Waiting for the market to recover so they can get out alive! At some point some of those properties become must-sell, but those are generally intended as investment anyway, with many built up as the huge mansions we don't want anyway. Even if it drops 75% from a delusional 4 million to the market clearing price, we still don't want it. The place we want tend to be ones that are owned to live in, remain owned, thus aren't part of the market until the owners eventually get too old to remain there and then they become must-sell if there isn't family wanting to assume the live-in role. That's a big theme coming up, a lot of people on the Islands and Coast are in that boat.
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - JimmyWW - 02-17-2015
(02-17-2015, 06:00 AM)alexcanuck2.0 Wrote: Sellers (that's sellers, not delusional listers) are getting the memo. Assessments are supposed to be based on sales, and I believe for the most part they are.Alex - thank you. You may not know it, but your reply just answered a bunch of questions I have about how the property market on the Coast and Islands works. Now I get why there is what I call "shadow inventory" - and also why there's so much property on the market in the Islands. Thanks again, much appreciated - scales have fallen from my eyes! Cheers - Jimmy
Actual sales are what matters, serial re-listers chasing the market down and properties that aren't listed because they have more owing than they could possibly sell for merely represent pent-up supply. Waiting for the market to recover so they can get out alive! At some point some of those properties become must-sell, but those are generally intended as investment anyway, with many built up as the huge mansions we don't want anyway. Even if it drops 75% from a delusional 4 million to the market clearing price, we still don't want it. The place we want tend to be ones that are owned to live in, remain owned, thus aren't part of the market until the owners eventually get too old to remain there and then they become must-sell if there isn't family wanting to assume the live-in role. That's a big theme coming up, a lot of people on the Islands and Coast are in that boat.
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - alexcanuck2.0 - 02-25-2015
Remember a lot of those old properties are mortgage-free, so they can be sold at the market clearing price without distress. Many will be must-sell as the property doesn't meet the needs of the owners anymore (either facing-reality owners or the heirs, power-of-attorney relatives and executors).
If the owner of the speculative ones remain solvent they will need a macro-economic shock to force into must-sell category. Enough will not remain solvent that even in the absence of the macro economic shock that, when combined with the old-timer properties, means there will be considerable pressure on all levels of inventory for some time to come.
Say Jimmy, are we gonna be neighbours? Should we talk about a nice waterfront piece just a little too dear for either alone? Or a slow simmering cooking feud, periodically erupting in omelette blitzes? I want a cooking feud with a neighbour, loser gets rewarded by eating winner's creation.
(Cooking feuds are fun, collaborative and tasty, unlike most feuds.)
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - JimmyWW - 02-26-2015
(02-25-2015, 09:57 PM)alexcanuck2.0 Wrote: Remember a lot of those old properties are mortgage-free, so they can be sold at the market clearing price without distress. Many will be must-sell as the property doesn't meet the needs of the owners anymore (either facing-reality owners or the heirs, power-of-attorney relatives and executors).
If the owner of the speculative ones remain solvent they will need a macro-economic shock to force into must-sell category. Enough will not remain solvent that even in the absence of the macro economic shock that, when combined with the old-timer properties, means there will be considerable pressure on all levels of inventory for some time to come.
Alex - as you seem to know a lot about this stuff, do you mind if I ask a few more questions, e.g.
- it sounds as if it's smart to be targeting un-reno'd, relatively old properties; would that be right?
- when you talk about specuvestors, do you have any way of spotting when a specuvestor is trying to sell? What's their mindset?
- when you say specuvestors will not remain solvent, are you basing that on a slow (or rapid) decline in values against the mortgages they took to buy the properties in the first place?
I'd be grateful for your thoughts. And I'm always game for a cook-off. But right now I'm in TO, won't arrive on the islands til 2016. But I consider the gauntlet duly thrown down...
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - Robert McKenzie - 02-28-2015
It's unfortunate that this gentleman and his wife had such difficulties with their property. As it stands my building partner and I have some first hand knowledge about his situation. We were called over from galiano to put a bid in on constructing what could only be described as a mega home. Actually it was to operate as a dive lodge as well as a home. In preparation for this development they had blasted a house site which appeared to cover the majority of the property. We immediately realized that this was a disaster in the making and declined the job. besides destroying this beautiful property he must have gone against every common sense way of developing land.
In all this is a terrible example of property resale.
It's unfortunate that this gentleman and his wife had such difficulties with their property. As it stands my building partner and I have some first hand knowledge about his situation. We were called over from galiano to put a bid in on constructing what could only be described as a mega home. Actually it was to operate as a dive lodge as well as a home. In preparation for this development they had blasted a house site which appeared to cover the majority of the property. We immediately realized that this was a disaster in the making and declined the job. besides destroying this beautiful property he must have gone against every common sense way of developing land.
In all this is a terrible example of property resale.
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - alexcanuck2.0 - 03-08-2015
And I'm always game for a cook-off.
OK, that sounds pretty casual, like Costco patties, buns and salads. I take my cooking feuds are rather more seriously than that, we're talking multiple ongoing battles of finely nuanced variations on many themes, evolving for years. That was not a gauntlet thrown down, more a discrete invitation to an exclusive event.
And since you are contemplating island life, I think you get the importance of filling time with constructive highly enjoyable social hobbies.
As far as your questions, it all depends on what you want. The worst financial disasters will likely occur in the high-end new build speculative properties, but they'll still be expensive sterile uncomfortable mansions IMVHO. We just plain don't want that, on a personal level.
Be open to alternative arrangements, still more common than you'd think in rural coastal BC. (Likely in many places, not just in the areas I know.) In our case retirement is ~10 years out, if someone is in desperate need of money but wants to remain in their home a deal could be made. Or the right place may show up early and need to be rented out for some years before we are ready to move. Two (or more) dwelling properties open up a whole host of possibilities. Bare land stratas are not to be thought of like normal stratas, very different and quite workable.
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - JimmyWW - 03-09-2015
(03-08-2015, 09:22 PM)alexcanuck2.0 Wrote: And I'm always game for a cook-off.
OK, that sounds pretty casual, like Costco patties, buns and salads. I take my cooking feuds are rather more seriously than that, we're talking multiple ongoing battles of finely nuanced variations on many themes, evolving for years. That was not a gauntlet thrown down, more a discrete invitation to an exclusive event.
Be open to alternative arrangements, still more common than you'd think in rural coastal BC. (Likely in many places, not just in the areas I know.) In our case retirement is ~10 years out, if someone is in desperate need of money but wants to remain in their home a deal could be made. Or the right place may show up early and need to be rented out for some years before we are ready to move. Two (or more) dwelling properties open up a whole host of possibilities. Bare land stratas are not to be thought of like normal stratas, very different and quite workable.
Thanks Alex. And I will one day offer you my three-meat (if you eat meat) chocolate chili with lime basmati rice as my first salvo... :-)
RE: Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. - alexcanuck2.0 - 05-30-2015
The unfinished nightmare is still there, still marring a lovely piece of waterfront, now for 389K. It would be worth more today if it hadn't been touched. What a sad story.