2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

(March 5, 2014: added HPI & Benchmark data)

January/February Sales Stats

I began this thread (post #1) with an quoted article that showed a number of local Realtors were feeling very optimistic in early January that the market could finally be showing signs of turning around. This optimism was based on office activity up to mid-January and on the preceding month’s sales.

December, 2013 total sales stats (all types) was the best in three years on a year-over-year basis (Dec 2010 - 44 sales, Dec 2011 - 27 sales, Dec 2012 - 16 sales, Dec 2013 - 38 sales) and the same increase applied to single detached home sales (Dec 2010 - 30 sales, Dec 2011 - 21 sales, Dec 2012 - 10 sales, Dec 2013 - 23 sales). On a month-to-month basis, December matched November’s sales (38) which halted a two month decline.

So, did January sales back up Realtor optimism? They sure did as the ‘SC January Sale YOY’ table below shows. Total sales (all types) up +55% over January 2013 with single detached home sales up +35% versus the year before.

Now, what did I say at the end of my first post above? “Unfortunately, February looks like is going to suck” - well, it did. On a month-to-month basis, total February sales declined -18% from January and detached sales dropped -30%. On a year-over-year basis, February’s detached sales declined for the third straight year since 2011.

Since October, it has been attached sales that have helped pump up the stats and townhomes in particular. Remember, their sales have been languishing for the last couple of years and with so many resales on the market prices have been dropping steadily. (Check out the listing situation this past November in Gibsons by scrolling to the bottom of this first ‘Soames Place’ post. Brutal. By the way, nothing has moved at Soames Place or the other new Gibsons condo proposal - Blue Heron Village. Why pay their condo prices when nearby you can pick up a 1520sf, 3bd/2ba resale townhome for $289,500?)

So, what pumped up December’s and January’s sales? Don’t know. What happened in February? Well, buyers could have had a few distractions such as the lousy weather or staying indoors to watch the Olympics because of that lousy weather. So, we’ll have to see how March plays out.

The next two tables break down January/February sales by area for 2014 compared to 2013 and are followed by the year-to-date tables. Next are the January/February single detached home (SDH) sales by area on a year-over-year basis followed by the year-to-date (Jan & Feb) versus year-over-year single detached home sales (SDH) table. The 2014 total year-to-date SDH sales are even with 2013 (47 sales), but since Jan/Feb 2013 sales were so poor this is nothing to cheer about. Again, we will want to watch what happens this month (March) as the spring selling season begins.

As I’ve mentioned before, I pull this monthly sales data from SC Realtor Gary Little’s great website. For 2014, he made some substantial changes to his Stats page. For one thing, he no longer reports the Average Selling Price. Some may miss that data, but not me. As I mentioned many times in the past, the ASP data for single detached home sales on the Sunshine Coast was distorted by the inclusion of homes sales valued at $1 million and over which would pump up the ASP by a 100-thousand and more depending on how many million dollar plus homes sold in the month.

Little is now going solely with the ‘Median Sales Price’ which knocks off the very high and very low sale prices, so the result is much more realistic to what is occurring in the market. So, the table and chart below shows the SDH Median Sales Price by month for 2011-2014.

After I entered February's price, I looked at the chart and thought despite the wild swings the overall momentum seems downward. To verify this, I decided to add a trendline and it bears this out. According to the trendline, the SDH ‘Median Sale Price’ has slowly dropped roughly $35,000 in value over the last three years. The drop may seem insignificant, but I think it reinforces other data showing declining property values on the Sunshine Coast (Property Assessments, Benchmark Prices).

In the last half of 2013, I began to take a closer look at the REBGV Sunshine Coast ‘Sales by Price Range’ table that is released every month. I used that info in a November 29th post (scroll down) to query whether a new subdivision in Sechelt (Silverstone Heights) would have much luck moving its 30 homes (not built but all listed on MLS) valued between $479,900 and $579,900. I also created a Pie Chart with the full year’s data and added it to my 2013 year end summary thread, ‘Sunshine Coast, BC: 2013 Real Estate Sales - The Big Picture’.

The table below shows January’s Sales by Price Range illustrating that the trend is continuing - few buyers are interested in homes priced $400,000 and over.

   

Now, what happened on the last day of February? Can you remember? Kudos to those who know the answer: CMHC raised its default insurance premiums for the first time since 1998. While that got lots of press, what didn’t get mentioned by most of the main stream media was private insurer, Genworth, followed suit the very same day - in fact, the company has wanted to up those rates for a long time but felt hamstrung by the publically-owned CMHC. So, this is another issue that will impact those SC listed homes valued above $400,000. Oh, dear, what is going to happen at Silverstone Heights?

Did February’s detached sales follow January’s pattern? Oh, you bet and here is how those 19 sales broke down:

• 6 sales between $200,000 - $299,000
  
• 7 sales between $300,000 - $399,000
  
• 6 sales between $400,000 - $699,000
  

So, for all those with homes listed above $400,000 and who are desperate to sell keep dropping those prices!

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The HPI and Benchmark Price moved up ever so slightly by 0.2 and $500. In January, the Benchmark was -26.7% off the July 2010 Peak and in February it rose by 0.1% to -26.6%. From October 2013 to now, it looks like both the HPI and Benchmark are flatlining. This is mirroring what occurred to both between May and October, 2012.

It was in June 2012 that the feds announced those first significant changes to CMHC (amortization dropped to 25 years from 30, refinancing limit dropped to 80% from 85%, insurance limited to homes under $1 million, buyers of homes priced higher than $1 million must have 20% down - at least $200,000). Last summer, the first increase in mortgage rates occurred and we had a spurt in buying from late summer into fall.

Obviously, the type, value and location of homes sold would have an impact, too. If not many homes above $400,000 are moving then neither will that benchmark price.

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As I mentioned above SC Realtor Gary Little dropped 'Average Sale Prices' from his stats page. He has also added new features that are interesting to play with - 'Moving Averages' tables for:

• Median Sales Price
  
• Median Days on Market
  
• Median Discount from Original Price
  
• Sales:New Listing Ratio
  

With each table, you can choose property type and duration (3-month, 6-month, 9-month, 12-month). I know that with stock trading a lot of value is placed on moving averages especially in the short term to determine trends; however, I am not sure how valuable such info is in a real estate market the size of the Sunshine Coast.

**Also a note about Little’s February data - his Gibson’s data is wrong. There were 5 detached homes sales and 7 attached sales and not the 6 and 6 he has indicated. Therefore, this lowers total detached sales to 19 and increases attached sales to 12.