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2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
12-05-2014, 02:13 PM, (This post was last modified: 12-05-2014, 02:32 PM by Skook.)
#32
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
November 2014 SC Sales Stats

Total SC November real estate sales are down -31% compared to October, but no big deal because, “Hey, it’s November!”, and because sales in the last four months are the best on a year-over-year basis since 2009. We see total November sales up +37% vs Nov 2013; +24% vs Nov 2012 and Nov 2011 in the YOY table below. 2014 year-to-date shows 698 sales which is nearly 100 more than all of 2013 and by the end of December could match and possibly exceed all sales in 2012 and 2011. Oh, happy days!

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1014]

Total residential sales-by-area continues to show Roberts Creek in the red for 2014 YTD vs YTD 2013; however, all other areas of the SC continue their positive march in the green. Remember though we’re talking sales not value and the latter continues to fall which is spurring those sales. So, if you want to join the party, keep dropping those list prices!!

Single Detached Home Sales

The REBGV reports there were 38 single detached home sales (Gary Little reports 37 and he may not be included the one November sale on Gambier Island). Of course, regardless if we use 38 or 37, the November figure is still the best since 2009 as the table directly below shows.

November detached sales on a year-over-year were positive for each market area except Gibsons. The latter’s sales were neutral compared to 2013 and negative when compared to Nov 2012 and Nov 2011; but , on a year-to-date basis, it’s green all the way for Gibsons and its those year-to-date sales that hold more weight in my opinion than those monthly year-over-year reports that the real estate boards love to shout (especially when sales are increasing).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1015]

Sales By Price Range

For whatever reason, in November and December it’s the higher priced properties that move on the Sunshine Coast. I am constantly reading that if you want to find good bargains then you should do your property search in those two months. Yes, there will be fewer listings; but, those selling may be the most desperate, too, and with fewer buyers about they just might accept that “relatively-speaking” low-ball offer you make. I think that’s what happened with that $950,000 November sale that I reported on here. There you go - another reason why some have more money to play with than others – they’re smart with it (which may explain why there were no sales above a million dollars).

So, we can now see those year-to-date % totals rising for property sales $500,000 and above. Mind you, it still has me scratching my head because if it's retirees buying these properties I can’t understand why they would want so much house and/or so much land. I guess they can hire someone to clean and maintain the property; but, those individuals are getting harder to find on the SC, too – yep, everybody’s getting grey even the plebs!

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1016]

When I watched November’s sales unfolding and saw the prices being paid, I really expected to see the MLS Home Price Index and Benchmark Price to increase this month but it didn’t happen. The HPI dipped 1.1% points and this is reflected in the Benchmark Price which dropped $3,200. It’s not much of a drop at first glance, but in my opinion takes on more significance when you look at the November median sale price of $420,000 - up $6,000 from October. Strange, eh? This is why no one understands the HPI and why Garth Turner (The Greater Fool blog) refers to it as the “Frankenumber.”

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1017]

Remember the real estate boards all say that it’s the HPI that denotes trends in the marketplace and we see it dipping now on the SC. The question is what will happen in the months ahead as the reality of dropping oil prices takes hold. We are all smiling at the gas pumps; but, we don’t know the overall economic impact on the country as a whole if those prices continue to fall and stick around well into 2015.

Sales to Listing Ratio

New single detached listings took a real dip in November compared to October and, in fact, were the lowest in 2014. That drop coupled with the month’s relatively good sales resulted in bumping up the sales-to-listings ratio to 68%. This increase in turn raised the year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio to 45% - exactly the same figure reached in 2009.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1018]

So, the SC real estate market is perfectly “balanced” (according to real estate boards) as it sits there between 35% and 55%. I think we will see more of the same in December since sales are starting off well and there have been next to nil new listings; but, beyond that is anyone’s guess. Will the SC’s seven years of falling prices be impossible to ignore especially for lower mainland buyers or will falling oil prices shock the Canadian economy to such an extent that everyone panics and retrenches or throws the major real markets into that long anticipated free fall? This will be interesting.

To conclude, here are the REBGV’s SC November charts.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1019]


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RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats - by Skook - 12-05-2014, 02:13 PM

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