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2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats
12-11-2014, 10:57 AM, (This post was last modified: 12-11-2014, 11:09 AM by Skook.)
#9
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats
VIREB Aug-Nov 2014 Sales Stats – Part 3

There is no doubt that 2014 has been good overall for detached home unit sales in the VIREB real estate market. The tables above prove year-to-date sales have bettered every year back to and including 2010. So, what are sellers buying on the island? The table directly below shows monthly detached sales-by-price range for the VIREB market as whole. The pie chart maps the year-to-date totals for each price range.

The $300,001 - $400,000 price range accounts for 32.7% of year-to-date sales followed by $200,001 - $300,000 (26.4%) and $400,001 - $500,000 (17.3%). For comparison, the majority of year-to-date sales on the Sunshine Coast likewise occurred in the $300,000 - $399,999 range (33.8%); however, that market reverses the VIREB’s next two results with 17.8% occurring in the $400,000 - $499,999 range followed by $200,000 - $299,999 at 15.1%. I’m not sure if the Sunshine Coast results are a reflection of the listings (stock available) or buyers (more money to spend) – I think it might be more the latter if the majority of buyers are coming from the lower mainland.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1024]

According to media reports in October, real estate boards in the major markets (Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto) were reporting that detached home sales were attaining levels not seen since 2009 and this is certainly the case now for VIREB year-to-date sales (same for the Sunshine Coast, too). The figures in the November ‘sales-to-listings’ table in the second row below show that YTD (Jan-Nov) detached sales stand at 4092 surpassing the year-end totals for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. The November ratio itself (55%) now matches that attained in 2009 which is at the “cusp” of being a “sellers” market which according to an individual board’s interpretation begins at ≥ 55% or ≥60% - I decided to be generous at set the bar at 55% in the chart.

With only December left to report, it is highly unlikely 2014 will end above 55% and according to the VIREB the current “balanced” market will continue next month and into 2015.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1025]

(Note: The sales-to-listings ratio is calculated by dividing the month’s sales by the month’s number of new listings and then multiplying the result by 100).

The following charts are a welcome break from all those data tables above. The SFH chart visually reinforces what can be seen in the 2014 Market Statistics table posted earlier – that 2014 total active listings are at a lower level than 2013 and significantly lower than in 2012.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1026]

If buyers are chasing fewer detached listings, do we see an increase in prices? The answer has to be no according to the Benchmark price tables above. In fact, detached home prices have barely kept up with inflation. According to a recent comment (#26, bullwhip29) on VancouverCondoInfo.com:

Quote:...mkt corrected in 08/09 and basically flatlined for some 6 yrs or so (while RE prices elsewhere, global stk mkts etc ripped higher);...confirmation that island RE as an investment is a dog.

Here is a look at VIREB vacant land listings, total active listings and sales.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1027]

Waterfront property 2014 Year-to-date (Jan-Nov) sales stand at 243 exceeding the 2013 YTD figure by 2 sales (241); at the current pace, 2014 will definitely exceed the 2013 total of 251 sales.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1028]

Each month, the VIREB contacts Cameron Muir, BCREA’s chief economist, to get his two cents on market conditions. I will end this four month VIREB update with those report quotes...

August:
Quote:BCREA economist, Cameron Muir, reported that things continue to look very positive overall on the Canadian economic front. While improved economic conditions are expected and welcomed, Muir noted that, “We may see slightly higher mortgage rates by the end of the year, as a result.”

September:
Quote:BCREA’s chief economist, Cameron Muir, reports that the VIREB coverage area saw its strongest summer since 2009 and expects that upward trajectory to continue.

“The retail sector has seen a boost in activity, indicating increased consumer confidence, which is certainly reflected in the housing numbers,” said Muir. He doesn’t expect interest rates to rise any time soon, noting that they continue to echo the reality of Canada’s overall housing demand.

October:
Quote:BCREA’s chief economist, Cameron Muir, reports that although job growth isn’t as strong as hoped, consumer spending is on the upswing, which indicates optimism regarding the economy and has a positive effect on home sales.

“We’re seeing continued economic growth year over year, but do expect that rate of growth to relax somewhat in the coming months,” says Muir. “However, we nevertheless expect balanced market conditions in line with inflation to continue into 2015.”

November:
Quote:Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist, states that the housing market is improving and expects balanced market conditions to continue, with housing prices reflecting an inflation rate of approximately two per cent.

“2014 is shaping up to be the best year we’ve had for some time, and 2015 is looking even better,” says Muir. “Although overall economic growth in 2015 likely won’t accelerate to 2006 levels, we’re certainly expecting housing sales to continue ratcheting upwards to a higher plateau.”

2015 is looking even better? With these new oil prices? Well, we shall see.


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Messages In This Thread
2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 03-16-2014, 11:33 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 04-11-2014, 04:59 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 04-18-2014, 08:22 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 08-10-2014, 11:04 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 08-10-2014, 03:42 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 08-22-2014, 12:16 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 12-09-2014, 09:58 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 12-09-2014, 01:41 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 12-11-2014, 10:57 AM

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