SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013

[Skook]

August 2013 SC Sales Data

Up until this month, I have been posting Sunshine Coast monthly sales data without a truly clear understanding of what these various sales reporting methods entailed particularly for the Sunshine Coast. So, in the last weeks of July, I decided to sit down and take a close look at Average Sales Price, Median Sales Price and Benchmark Price - the latter via the MLS Home Price Index. I decided it was worth sharing what I learned and posted the new thread ‘Interpreting Sunshine Coast Real Estate Sales - The 3 Amigos’ last week. I would encourage anyone in the same boat as me to take a look at that thread and for those who have a good understanding of the ‘3 Amigos’ you still might find the graphs interesting.

Now, in the last post of the ‘3 Amigos’ thread, I quoted from a Garth Turner blog post. I would like to add that quote to this post, too, before you look at the SC August stats.

On May 29, 2013, in his blog post, ‘The Day it Died', Turner introduced readers to Greater Toronto Area Realtor, Ross Kay. Turner quoted from an email he had received from Kay…

Quote:On May 19th, 2013 we recorded the lowest value of Canadian consumer engagement in real estate since 2010. What is scary here is that on April 8th 2012, we reached an all time high engagement value. The May 19th numbers for 2013 represent about a 72% decline over that peak number. This massive decline raises grave concerns not being reported in newspapers across the country.

So we project 60 to 90 days from May 19th that MLS sales will be reported that will reveal the market died on May 19th. Our numbers have not been wrong since 2008. So as it turns out the peak of the real estate market in Canada was April 8th 2012, as posted here on Greater Fool. Peak pricing was established and as recorded MLS sales prices now show, anyone who bought in competition around that date paid too much.

Here is what Ross Kay wrote on his own website on May 29, 2013…

Quote:For the first time, since 2008, RossKay.com is going live publicly with it's industry leading Real Estate Sales Trends Index because of the drastic downward trends it has recorded since April 8th, 2013. Over the course of the last 9 weeks, our index has revealed a downward spiraling real estate marketplace, with results that will not reveal themselves in MLS sales data for another 60 to 90 days, when they will finally be reported by Organized Real Estate Associations. (For Reference on March 6th, 2013, we projected a 7.7% decrease in sales volumes to be reported on national MLS sales numbers for May 1st. Since our index only projects trends the official drop of 6.2% recorded by MLS sales nationally, was indicative of the trend we stated. Our Index was the only index value in Canada to statistically project this trend.)

The radical drop in index value calculated for May 19 and again on May 26th shows a 37.22% drop and 39.11% drop over respective weekly values calculated in 2012. This drop has historical significance, as this represents the largest plus or minus percentage change, year over year, ever recorded by the index. To date 2013 respective weekly values have been lower than not only 2012 but also 2011 and have been increasing in decline week over week.

After reaching an all time Peak Index Value of 806 on April 1st 2012, the index was off 22.33% for the same Sunday in 2013 and the decline in index value has been steadily recorded.

What should the Consumer do?
First the trends our index reveals is just that a trend. We do not expect a decline of 37% to 40%, 60 to 90 days from today's date but we do expect when sales are finally reported massive drops in sales volume will be recorded.

For Sellers,
As we have been advising our own clients since April of 2012, Sell and Sell Now.

For Buyers,
As we have been advising our own clients since April 2011, wait.

Here are the Sunshine Coast August total sales figures….

Here are the August residential sales figure breakdown by area and type with year-to-date comparisons…

The August ‘Average Sales Price’ and ‘Median Sales Price’ info is next; however, I would like to issue two warnings regarding the ASP data:

1) As I mention in the ‘3 Amigos’ thread, the average sales price info for the Sunshine Coast includes the sale of million dollar plus single detached homes and in August a property sold for just over $1,700,000 - if you removed that property, the average sales price for single detached home sales would drop to $435,035.

2) My source for these monthly reports has been SC Realtor Gary Little’s Stats page (http://www.garylittle.ca/stats.html). I really appreciate the work he does putting his together and for making it available for the public. However, this month I found a mistake and the ‘Average Detached Sales Price’ is wrong. I discovered the error when I was recalculating the ASP without that million dollar home sale.

When the REBGV releases its August Stats Package this week, I plan to sit down and look at the ‘3 Amigos’ in relation to the August sales figures and I will explain then how I found that error.

This month I also plan to present the August Benchmark Price data (is in REBGV stats package) and will add it to this post hopefully by the end of the week.

Sept 4, 2013 Update:

Here is the August Home Price Index and Benchmark Price Data. The Benchmark Price dropped to $334,800 from July's $338,800 - the Benchmark is now down -22.5% from the all-time peak reached July, 2010 ($432,224). The HPI dropped a further 1.4 points to 117.3 from July's 118.7. Both the Benchmark Price and HPI indicate the price of 'typical' home on the Sunshine Coast continues to fall in value. For a more detailed explanation of the HPI and Benchmark Price, please see my post ‘Interpreting Sunshine Coast Real Estate Sales - The 3 Amigos’.

I will upload the REBGV Charts has soon as they become available.