2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

2015 SC Monthly RE Stats – Part 2

Detached Sales by Price Range:

Next up...the tables and charts showing the distribution of single detached home sales by price range (below $1million). My data source is the ‘Sunshine Coast Sales’ table in the REBGV’s monthly Sunshine Coast chart package. I create my monthly tables and chart based on that data. The image below covers January to March and is pretty...pretty long. As you scroll forever, note the size of the pie slices and you head towards March.
(Click on image to open in new browser tab and click on image again to enlarge)

   

When I saw the March distribution of sales, the size of the $400,000 - $499,999 and $500,000 – 599,999 slices caught my eye. I couldn’t remember sales in these ranges being that high this early last year. So, I went and pulled the March tables as far back as I could (to 2012) and here they are below.

March 2015 sales under $1million exceed all three previous years by 13 to 21 sales. The increase in volume seems to be distributed in the price ranges from $400,000 to $799,999 compared to the last two years, but not 2012. I’m not sure if I should read anything into this, but I wonder if incredible low mortgage rates are having an impact. Are buyers saying, “At these rates, we can afford to borrow more (since monthly payment threshold remains the same) and buy our “dream” home now. Or, we could just be seeing lower mainlanders moving to the SC after selling their crack shacks for a gazillion dollars and buying up for what they now think of as cheap, cheap, cheap.

Detached Median Sales Price:

I mentioned at the beginning of my first stats post directly above that I have recalculated the Sunshine Coast median sales price going back to 2012. My impetus - to remove “$1mill+” property sales which I feel significantly distort the data. As I’ve mentioned before, my primary sales data source has been SC Realtor© Gary Little’s web stats. Initially, he used to report the average sales price every month but changed to the median sales price in 2014. However, if you compare his figure with the REBGV you will note they don’t match. Here’s why:

REBGV SDH Median Sales Price = MOPs + SDHs + $1mill plus sales
Gary Little Median Sales Price = SDHs + $1mill plus sales

I’ve decided walk a line between the two because I am going to include MOPs but remove the ‘$1mill+’ properties. After looking at the monthly sales figures, there have been many months where the value of a mobile on a pad has exceeded in value one, two even up to three of the lower priced single detached homes on a lot; so, I agree with the board on this one and feel MOPs should be included in my median sales price.

Skook Median Sales Price = MOPs + SDHs - $1mill plus sales

In the image below, the top table contains my recalculated median sales prices and the charted results are on the right. My older table and chart (I used Little’s data) follow and are included for comparison. Note the yearly “AVG” figure in my table compared to Little’s – up to $20,000 difference in come years. Compare also the vertical axis labels between the two charts – I think that is noteworthy.

Comparing the tables month by month, you will notice some significant changes. Now, imagine you want to put your house on the market and you think its value is $425,000. Which table/chart would give a more accurate picture of the market’s current and historical median sales price?

Here’s some more supporting data for the step I’m taking. Last month, there were two MOP sales: $69,000 and $183,000. The lowest single detached home sale on a lot: $181,123. There were two ‘$mill plus’ property sales: $1,160,000 and $6,600,000. Generally speaking, calculating the median sales price will eliminate lowest and highest figures and find a price in the middle of what remains.

The REBGV March 2015 Median Sales Price: $418,154
Realtor© Gary Little March 2015 Median Sales Price: $424,443
Skook March 2015 Median Sales Price: $408,154

March 2015 SC Average Sales Price (with MOPs & ‘$mill+’ sales): $544,455
March 2015 SC Average Sales Price (removed ‘$mill+’ sales): $415,011

Ya gotta love that first average sales price with its million dollar home sales, eh? Now, if you’re determined to find a buyer for that $425,000 home of yours what should your list price be set at based on the above information? Or, perhaps based on the information above, you’re overvaluing your home...hmm?

MLS® HPI & Benchmark Price:

I think the 1.5% rise in the HPI last month reflects that movement toward homes in the higher price ranges that I mention above. I don’t believe it signals an end just yet to falling home prices – my new Median Sales Price table continues to show a downward trendline). I still think that even though buyers can borrow more due to falling mortgage rates they still want a bargain. It’s the “Wal-Mart” effect: the commoditization of the market place...LOL. I think that is why the Benchmark has flat lined over the last year. So, don’t get too excited over the higher HPI figures so far this year compared to 2014 – look at what happened in 2013. We just don’t know what “shocks” may or may not lie ahead.

I am going to reduce the size of the Benchmark Price table to 2012 – 2015 in future posts. This month’s post can act as a reference if you need earlier data. I will keep the Benchmark Price chart as is.

To be cont’d...