2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

June/July 2015 SC RE Sales Stats - Part 2

Home Price Index & Benchmark Price

The REBGV tells us that: so says the HPI & Benchmark then so goes the market. In other words, it indicates how prices are trending and for the Sunshine Coast that’s up. This month’s HPI stands at 131.8 which is but a tad under the Apr 2012 high of 132.1. In January 2012, the Board “rejigged” the HPI index and Benchmark which is why my HPI figures begin Jan 2012.

I wanted to show the SC Benchmark peak price which is why that data goes back to Jan 2010. The 2015 Benchmark Price continues to rise and July came in at $376,200 (-17.8% below peak); June hit $368,800 (-19.4% below peak).

Just as a refresher, here's what the Board says about the HPI:

Quote:The MLS® Home Price Index is modelled on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures the rate of price change for a basket of goods and services including food, clothing, shelter, and transportation.

Instead of measuring goods and services, the HPI measures the change in the price of housing features. Thus, the HPI measures typical, pure price change (inflation or deflation).

And, here is what it says about the Benchmark Price:

Quote:The HPI benchmarks represent the price of a typical property within each market. The HPI takes into consideration what averages and medians do not – items such as lot size, age, number of rooms, etc. These features become the composite of the ‘typical house’ in a given area.

Each month’s sales determine the current prices paid for bedrooms, bathrooms, fireplaces, etc. and apply those new values to the ‘typical’ house model.

So, in my opinion, the HPI and Benchmark are reflecting what I said above about the shift in detached sells by price range: buyers are moving into higher price ranges as a consequence of lower mortgage rates due to the Bank of Canada cutting its rates – never have mortgage rates been so low.

I would like to point out the trendline in the HPI chart – it is almost flat. In other words, selling prices are “poised” to rise – it hasn’t started yet, but its close and, again, this supports what I said above when discussing the median selling price.

Sales-to-Listings Ratio

Given what we’ve seen with the median selling price, the HPI and Benchmark Price then one can’t help but anticipate movement towards a “sellers” market. In each of June and July, the ratio jumped into the 80 percentile range due to the higher volume of sales in relation to the number of new active listings in each of those two months. Historically, you have to go back to 2005 to see the ratio hit and exceed 80%.

Hmmm, 2005. You know that was an interesting year on the SC. That year developers flooded municipal and district governments with development applications; however, I don’t think we’ll see the same scenario ten years later – not when you have Trail Bay Estates staring every potential developer in the phase and some current projects treading water (more about those soon). No, if developers are doing their homework they will be cautious.

As for that Sales-to-Listings Ratio, year-to-date it now stands at 54%; and, according to the Board, the SC is oh so close to crossing over into a “Sellers” market – a mere 1% to go.

Quote:A buyer’s market is when there are many more homes for sale than there are buyers. As a result, prices may drop over time as home owners become eager to sell their property.

A seller’s market is when interest rates are low so there are many qualified buyers and not many homes for sale. Buyers must make quick decisions and face multiple offers on the home they have chosen to buy and prices can rise.

To measure market activity, the Real Estate Board has a unique tool. It’s our Sales-to-Listings ratio which measures the balance between demand and supply.

• a ratio of three sales for five listings means we are in a seller's market (also known as a ratio of 55 – 60%).
  
• a ratio of less than 7 sales for every 20 listings means we are in a buyer’s market (also known as a ratio of less tan 35%).
  

To wrap up the stats, here are the REBGV July 2015 Sunshine Coast real estate charts. If you head to the Detached Average/Median Price chart (2nd below on left), you see the Board has pegged the July average selling price as just touching $500,000 mark. Remember the Board includes detached, MOP and million plus property sales. My calculation which removes the million plus properties is $442,211 – for what it’s worth.

I thought I would end with a small discussion I came across between one Adam Braden and SC realty firm The Robinson Group (mom, son and assistant) on the latter’s Facebook page. So what options do TRG offer a disheartened Mr. Braden who I fear is heading for a deep depression? Well, the average homeless working stiff can suck money out of his/her RRSP (up to $25,000 which increases to $35,000 in 2017 if we reelect the Harper Tory government). Or, he/she can go begging to family members (i.e. bank of mom & dad) to get that down payment which is all he/she really has to worry about because once he/she gets that low monthly mortgage it’s just like paying rent, right?

Okay, so his/her/their “maybe” average working income doesn’t quite cut it for buying a home and likely its best to stick to renting; on the other hand, it might be worth rolling the dice since “our market is still easier than most to get in to.” And, as we all know, when you're a homeowner you’re too sexy...too sexy for your mortgage...too sexy...too sexy for your mortgage.