2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

SC Realtors® The Robinson Group posted a very interesting document image to their Facebook page last week. It’s titled “Realtor® Report” and directly below in smaller print it says “A Research Tool Provided by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver”. I mentioned back in an April post that Realtors® can log into a portal courtesy of CREA where they can access real estate stats from any board across Canada and make reports from that data. Sunshine Coast and lower mainland Realtors® can also login to the REBGV website and access the data and I image that is how this document was produced.

There’s some interesting SC data in that report including this chart...

I’m been looking at the chart off and on over the last two days wondering about the Y-axis and how those percentages were produced. This chart is very different from the Sales-to-Listings tables and charts I’ve produced based on the REBGV monthly stats package. I finally clued in this afternoon. The ratio is this chart is based on the month’s sales to total active listings. In the REBGV monthly data, the ratio is based on the month’s sales to total new listings.

So using Detached Sales-to-Active Listings:

June = (107/588) x 100 = 18.2 = 18%
July = (81/571) x 100 = 14.7 = 15%

Now, looking at the chart again, we see that below 12% is a “Buyer’s Market”, 12% to 22% is a “Balanced Market”, and above 22% is a “Seller’s Market”.

So, June and July are well within “Balanced” Market territory.

Now, I’ll recalculate using the data the Board makes available to the plebs – sales and new listings. Now, what does the Board tell the public...oh, right:

Quote:To measure market activity, the Real Estate Board has a unique tool. It’s our Sales-to-Listings ratio which measures the balance between demand and supply.

• a ratio of three sales for five listings means we are in a seller's market (also known as a ratio of 55 – 60%).
  
• a ratio of less than 7 sales for every 20 listings means we are in a buyer’s market (also known as a ratio of less than 35%).
  

Here we go:

June = (106/120) x 100 = 88.3 = 88%
July = (81/98) x 100 = 82.6 = 83%

Well, that is some unique tool, isn’t? It tells us that on the SC June and July were both helluva “Seller’s Markets”.
Every month, the REBGV does this percentage calculation for all its market areas and posts the result on the ‘MLS Listings Facts’ page for us simple folk to marvel and drool over.

Seeing those ridiculous monthly Sales-to-New List percentages is why I chose to plot Year-to-Date numbers – it was the best and only way I could make any sense of the data. After seeing the chart above from this “Realtor® Report”, I’m wondering if I should even bother since the YTD now stands at 54% (scroll up to previous post for chart).

The data for that eye opening chart above came from the table at the top of the ‘Realtor® Report’ which I have posted below.
The general public doesn’t have access to the total active listings data unless they know a Realtor® who will share. There is a way to get a figure close to it; however, I’m afraid to publicize it. Using it to redo my July calculation, I get:

(79/548) x 100 = 14.4% = 14%.

Now, the million dollar question is: Which method is a true reflection of what is taking place in the market? I think Sales-to-Active Listings reflects reality because it’s the only way to explain the daily volume of price drops I’m still seeing on the SC. In the last two weeks (Aug 2 – 16), there were 24 detached home price drops and 33 new lists/relists and some of those relists dropped prices, too. Would this be happening in a Seller’s Market with an 83% Sales-to-List ratio?

The second item of note on this Realtor® Report I have circled in red. I’ve known all year inventory levels were down and it’s due to two factors: higher sales volume last year and this year; and, falling prices so some potential sellers are holding back. That being said at July’s sales pace there's a 7 month supply of listings. However, if demand remains high in the months ahead with few new listings, then prices should begin to rise and I pointed out in my stats post above that chart trendlines seem poised to reverse.