2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest

[jesse]

This thread outlines the rules for the 2013 VCI Price Prediction Contest.

One entry set per person.
You will need to come up with a handle.
'Anonymous' won't be accepted.

- You can guess for any or all of the items, within each of the three categories below.
- You can guess for June'13 and December'13.
- You can change your guesses before the deadline.
- All data are from REBGV official reports.
- Points are awarded for each item, for first, second, and third closest to the actual number, for both June and December, according to the following schedule:

June gauge gets
3 points for first
2 points for second
1 point for third
0 for every other entry

December gauge gets
6 points for first
4 points for second
2 points for third
0 for every other entry

- Points awarded to each contestant in a category are summed. The contestant with the most points in a category wins the category. (There will be one winner per category.)

Categories are as follows:

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012 (3 items)
1-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI
2-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI
3-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012 (3 items)
1-Greater Vancouver detached average
2-Greater Vancouver attached average
3-Greater Vancouver apartments average

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012 (8 items)
1- Burnaby South SFD
2- Coquitlam SFD
3- North Van SFD
4- New West SFD
5- West Van SFD
6- Van East SFD
7- Van West SFD
8- Richmond SFD

December 2012 data are available at
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files...ackage.pdf

Entries can be sent to me via
- a comment on this thread
- PM on vancouverpeak (jesse) or realestatetalks (jesse1)
- a comment at http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca
- a comment at vancouvercondo.info (make sure I confirm you have been entered as I may not scan all the comments.)

Entry deadline is 12:01am PST on Saturday January 26, 2013.

[admin]

Can we post entries in this thread?

~Via phone thanks to Tapatalk.

[jesse]

(01-03-2013, 04:14 PM)admin Wrote: Can we post entries in this thread?

Yes, I modified the original to make that clear. Some may not want their predictions to be public so I added the ability for them to contact me anonymously/privately.

[Clockbike]

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI
-16.2%
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI
-19.5%
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI
-13.8%

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average
-21.3%
-Greater Vancouver attached average
-18.7%
-Greater Vancouver apartments average
-14.1%

Don't think too deeply about my decimal places, I haven't actually put - that - much research into it.

[VMD]

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI 575000 (-3.4%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (-3.6%,-8.5%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (-3.1%,-7.5%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (-2%,-10%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-3.5%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (-4.0%,-9%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby South SFD (-3.5%, -8.5%)
- Coquitlam SFD (-3.3%,-8.0%)
- North Van SFD (-3.3%,-8.5%)
- New West SFD (-3.0%,-7%)
- West Van SFD (-4%,-9%)
- Van East SFD (-3.3%,-8%)
- Van West SFD (-3.3%, -10%)
- Richmond SFD (-3.5%,-9%)

[wreckonomics]

I don't know, but the deadline looms so I might as well throw some guesses in the ring:

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI
-9%
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI
-8%
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI
-11%

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average
-11%
-Greater Vancouver attached average
-12%
-Greater Vancouver apartments average
-14%

[J D]

My entry:
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (-5%, -12.5%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (-5%,-12%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (-5%,-13%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (-5%,-12%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-4%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (-6%,-13%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby South SFD (-4%, -9%)
- Coquitlam SFD (-5%,-13%)
- North Van SFD (-4%,-9%)
- New West SFD (-3%,-7%)
- West Van SFD (-4%,-13%)
- Van East SFD (-5%,-8%)
- Van West SFD (-4.4%, -13%)
- Richmond SFD (-4.4%,-13%)

[VMD]

Mid-year Stats (June 2013 vs Dec 2012)

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (+1.9%)(vs +2.7% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (+1.7%)(vs +3.4%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (+2.2%)(vs +2.2%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (+3.5%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (+2.2%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (+17.2%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby S SFD +2.4% (vs +7.1% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
- Coquitlam SFD +0.6% (vs +6.1%)
- North Van SFD +4.4% (vs +3.6%)
- New West SFD +3.7% (vs +4.6%)
- West Van SFD +2.7% (vs +7.8%)
- Van East SFD +2.0% (vs +4.5%)
- Van West SFD +3.3% (vs +3.9%)
- Richmond SFD +0.6% (vs -0.5%)