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2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
08-08-2014, 04:05 PM, (This post was last modified: 08-08-2014, 04:15 PM by Skook.)
#21
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
I have just finished adding the remaining July sales date to post #24 above and here are the REBGV July 2014 Sunshine Coast sales charts. This post completes the SC July sales stats.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=957]


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08-23-2014, 11:23 AM, (This post was last modified: 08-29-2014, 05:10 PM by Skook.)
#22
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
August 1-21, 2014 Sales Update:

Let’s see how sales are shaping up so far for August. According to the data, there were 37 detached home sales (12 + 13 + 12) between August 1 - 21 and that figure includes 2 mobile homes (MOPs).

At this pace of sales, the month could end with detached sales of between 53 to 55 and total sales (all types) of around 75. You can see by the 2010 - 2013 sales data directly below August sales could generate some buzz. In fact, this could be the best August showing for detached sales since 2007.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect anything less given the precipitous drop in house values on the SC. Yes, day after day list prices continue to be revised downwards and many are now below their 2014 assessment (for the majority of home owners it’s a fourth straight year of falling assessments - waterfront properties included). Let the good times roll.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=970]

August 29, 2014 Update:

So, how do sales stand on the SC with just three days left to go in August? Here’s the sales data for the week of August 22 - 28 to help us with our projections.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=988]

The sales pace slowed a tad; however, when considering all the data over August we’re on track to see the month end with 51 single detached home sales and 72 total sales (all types). This would give us the best August showing for detached home sales since 2009 (52 sales).

On a month-to-month basis, we would tie July’s 51 detached sales, but exceed its total sales (59) by 13. We’ll find out on Monday with the release of August sales figures just how hard SC real agents were working this weekend to meet or exceed these projections. I'll have that early data up as soon as I can.


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09-01-2014, 09:33 AM,
#23
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
On the 1st of every month, I head over to SC Realtor Gary Little’s website and take advantage of his sales data totals that I then use to make my own tables, charts and statistics (percentage totals, changes, etc). Today was no different; however when I started to plug in his numbers, it just wasn’t making sense because I was expecting higher sales figures based on the pace of sales during August (see post above).

I kept asking myself, “What happened?” and then it dawned on me - this is a long holiday weekend and the REBGV office was closed Saturday and Sunday, August 30th and 31st; and, of course, it is closed today. So, is Little’s data missing the 30th and 31st sales? If so, would he correct his stats sometime tomorrow after the Board opens? If his stats remain the same, then I will not report SC sales until the Board releases its August stats package because I need to compare Little’s and the Board’s sales figures especially that critical single detached sales info.

I have a feeling my sales data won't be posted until the end of week; but, for accuracy sake I think it is worth the wait.
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10-07-2014, 02:11 PM,
#24
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Hi Skook

New poster here, though I've read your site for the last year or two.
Do you know when you might have the latest data up?

thx




(09-01-2014, 09:33 AM)Skook Wrote: I have a feeling my sales data won't be posted until the end of week; but, for accuracy sake I think it is worth the wait.
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10-08-2014, 01:48 PM,
#25
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
The best-laid plans of mice and men
Often go awry…

I’ve been thinking about those August and now September stats, Philpout; yep, been thinking about them real hard. Alas, the mind is willing (barely) but the body is weak (definitely), so I’m sad to say I have no idea when I’ll prep and post them. Right now, going with the flow (napping) is the best I can manage. Sound just like a stoner…lol.

By the by, welcome to VanPeak, Philpout! Perhaps if you and others send really positive thoughts my way (think them - don't post them), I’ll be inspired to tackle those stats sooner rather than later...Tongue
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11-08-2014, 11:36 AM, (This post was last modified: 11-09-2014, 06:15 AM by Skook.)
#26
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
October 2014 SC Sales Stats:

I have three months of data to pull together and make images for and I hope to begin posting it within days. In the meantime, I have prepared a chart and table to keep you occupied while waiting. I decided to revisit the “3 Amigos”: Average and Median selling prices and the HPI Benchmark price. (See: Interpreting Sunshine Coast Real Estate Sales - The 3 Amigos)

My primary data source was the REBGV monthly stats packages; however, I also turned to a few other sources and that meant recalculating median and average sale prices to reconcile them to the REBGV data. The REBGV includes Manufactured Homes on Pads (MOP) and “$1mill+” properties in its detached sales data while another source separates out MOP sales but keeps in the “$1mill+”. So, the data below is not perfect; however, I believe it gives an acceptable picture of what has been happening on the SC over the last four years.

I have pointed out in previous sales data postings that the inclusion of “$1mill+” detached property sales has really distorted the average and median sale price figures on the SC because it is such a small market. For example, the surge in the 2011 Average Sales price occurred because of 3 “mill+” sales in August and September and 4 in October. Median price calculations removed some of those sales as well as the very low ones and so gave a better reflection of the market. In May 2012, there were 4 “mill+” detached property sales followed by 5 in June and only 1 in September, hence that big spike and drop.

Note: months with an asterisk (*) beside them saw no “mill+” detached property sales. The purple columns are the number of single detached home sales per month.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=997]

In the table above, the 2010 Average Price is highlighted because the source was an REBGV chart and required some guess work.

I have mentioned before that I have used SC Realtor Gary Little’s monthly sales data. This year he stopped reporting the Average Sale price and my guess it was due to the issues I raise above. So, he now reports only the Median Sales Price on his stats page.

Something that has caught my attention over the course of my posting here is the discrepancy I noticed between Little’s monthly number of detached sales (MOP+DET) and the REBGV. You can see what I mean in the table below:

   

I assumed at one point that perhaps the difference was due to collapsed sales that the board does not account for until perhaps the end of the year. I thought this might explain why every month this year, Little has made revisions to his previously reported Median Sale Price data. This month he upped the October 2012 Detached Median Sales Price while lowering the Attached Median price for both October 2012 and 2013.

A difference of 1 sale between GL and the board is no big deal but August and October are noteworthy. While looking at another source of SC sales data, I realized there might be another answer for the difference – maybe the board includes sales on Gambier and Keats Islands (considered part of Gibsons’ market?) and Little does not. Unfortunately, I will never know for certain and in the grand scheme of things it really isn’t a big deal – just another thing to keep in the back of your mind when looking at different sources of SC sales data.

(More data to be posted soon)

Table Correction: October 2014 Median Price should read $379,000. I will replace this image at the earliest opportunity.


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11-10-2014, 09:18 AM,
#27
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Great posts, Skook. thank you as always. My full reply, for what it's worth, is in the BI Thread. Jimmy
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11-30-2014, 12:18 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-30-2014, 12:22 PM by Skook.)
#28
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
At noon on November 17, this was the Globe & Mail website’s top news story:


The headline line caught my eye as did remarks within the article. This is what CREA’s chief economist, Gregory Klump, had to say about October’s sales...
  • “While the strength of national sales activity is far from being a Canada-wide phenomenon, it extends beyond Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto,”
  • “Sales in a number of B.C. markets have started to recover from weaker demand over the past couple of years,”
As you will see in the August, September and October Sunshine Coast stats below sales are the best since 2009; however, the operative word here is “sales”. You see there is a significant difference between 2009 and 2014: in 2009, property values on the SC were still rising despite the unfolding worldwide financial meltdown that year. In fact, the HPI Detached Benchmark Price would continue to rise until July, 2010 when it peaked at $457,777. As of October, 2014, that Benchmark Price sits at $353,700 – a drop of -22.7%.

Now, when you look at the Benchmark data that will be posted in Part 2, you will notice that in 2014 it has been increasing albeit slowly. In my opinion, this increase is due to two factors:
  • the number of property sales valued at $1 million dollars and over
  • the number of properties sold less than 10 years old
Anyone who has been following BC Assessment values for the SC knows that those values have continued to fall over the last 4 years. My June, 2013 post, Sunshine Coast's Million Dollar Babies: Hush now, don't you cry!, illustrated falling waterfront land values up and down the SC.

My March 2014 post, Sunshine Coast & Bowen Island - 2014 Property Assessment, pointed out that 2014 failed to show much if any improvement. There’s a waterfront property south of Sechelt whose land value has dropped a quarter of a million dollars (yep, $250,000) since its 2011 assessment. When SC property owners get their 2015 assessment there will be more gnashing of teeth if there was any hope of a turnaround in falling property values. That assessment will be based on market value as of July 1, 2014 and if you wanted to give 2014 SC Real Estate sales a title my suggestion would be: 2014: The Year of Listing Price Drops.

Yes, sales are the best they’ve been since 2009; but, I’m not hearing any cheering, are you?

******************************

August, September, October SC Sales Stats – Part 1

Total real estate sales on the SC took a substantial jump in August after July’s holiday break but June’s smoking hot 93 sales will prove to be the 2014 peak. October’s -5% drop heralds the beginning of the end of this year’s turnaround in real estate sales; however, on a year-over-year basis October 2014 total sales are still +39% above 2013 sales; +21% above 2012 total sales; and, a whopping +79% above 2011 sales. This is nicely reflected in the “Total Sales by Month 2011 – 2014” chart below.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1000]

Roberts Creek continues to be the one market area of the Sunshine Coast that failed to join the party as illustrated in the “Year to Date Sales by Area” tables on the right above. Its total sales are in the red for all three months when compared to 2013 YTD sales. Perhaps there were fewer listings this year compared to 2013? If so, then my guess is that home owners are waiting for property values to rise. Well, for sure, that won’t be happening in 2015.

Single Detached Home Sales

It is here with detached home sales that we see 2014 proving to be the best year since 2009 for August and September; but look at October sales – you have to go back to 2005!

Again, I point out that in the 2001-2014 tables I use REBGV sales figures which include Manufactured on Pad (MOP) sales and may include sales on Gambier and Keats Islands. In the monthly YOY tables, I show those MOP sales (e.g. Gibsons: 12+1) while in the YTD-YOY, I have combined those MOP sales into the totals. Also, a reminder that the percentage change in the tables is 2014 vs 2013, 2014 vs 2012 and 2014 vs 2011; so, in August, Gibsons’ YOY sales for 2014 were up +18% vs 2013, on par versus 2012 sales and up +30% compared to 2011. Gibsons’ January – August 2014 sales were up 29% compared to 2013 YTD sales, down -8% compared to 2012 and up +13% compared to 2011.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1001]

Right, so we know that 2014 has been a great year for detached home sales compared at least to the last 5 years. Now, let’s look at the REBGV’s SC detached home sales by price range to find out where most buyers are heading with their money. I have broken down the data for all three months: August, September and October.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1002]

$300,000 - $399,999 continues to be “the” price point for the majority of SC buyers and by the end of October accounted for 34.8% of single detached home sales. What is noteworthy in “sales by price range” is that in August the $400,000 - $499,999 range matches the $200,000 - $299,999 range with each at 15.9% of sales, but then begins to pull ahead in September and by October is at 17.7% versus 15.3%. The reason – significant and continuous price drops for properties initially listed in the $500,000 - $599,999 range and these properties were often acreages which made those price drops doubly attractive.

The table below shows the overall single detached sales by price range. Sales of SC million dollar plus properties are posted separately here in the forum and the August, September, and October tables and chart can be found here.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1003]

to be continued...


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12-01-2014, 01:49 PM, (This post was last modified: 12-01-2014, 02:42 PM by Skook.)
#29
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
August, September, October SC Sales Stats – Part 2

When I first began posting about the Sunshine Coast, I pointed out that my primary source for sales data was SC realtor Gary Little’s incredible website. Over time as I began to understand more about real estate sales, I turned to other sources with the most important being the REBGV and its monthly stats package.

On November 11 in post #31 above, I offered a table and chart showing Benchmark, Median and Average prices for the SC since 2010. I pointed out that there are discrepancies between my SC sales sources. In a market the size of Vancouver, the differences wouldn’t be noticed; however, in a small market like the Sunshine Coast they should be kept in mind when looking at the data. I pointed out that the REBGV detached sales total includes all detached homes sales (regardless of value and land size) plus MOPs (mobile homes on pads) and may include property sales on Gambier and Keats Islands. Little, on the other hand, separates single detached and MOP sales ( I add them together in my stats) and I don’t think he includes Island sales. This difference is important to mention because it helps to explain why the two sources offer remarkably different median selling prices.

So, in October, the REBGV SC stats package shows 59 single detached home sales with a median selling price of $379,000. Little’s website stats page shows 51 detached home sales with a median selling price of $414,000. However, Little also shows there were 5 mobile home on pad sales with a median selling price of $118,000. Adding Little’s detached and MOP sale together gives 56 detached sales and combining the two would definitely drop that $414,000 figure.

I’m pointing this out because I have been mixing these stats sources in my own posts and the result may have had you scratching your head. The median sales price table and chart below uses Little’s median selling price and there is no point in changing that practice now. The HPI and Benchmark price data comes from the REBGV which explains why there is such a gulf between my median and benchmark selling price tables. We have to remember, too, that the number of “$1mill+” property sales each month can greatly impact the median selling price regardless if its Little’s or the REBGV’s figure. Okay, I think I’ve mentioned this enough times already so it should be clear now to those viewing my postings here at VanPeak.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1004]

The HPI and Benchmark Price show exactly the same trajectory and both rose slightly in 2014; although, they appear to be in a holding pattern now. From what I can see regarding the value of November detached property sales, I am expecting a slight rise in the Benchmark. Is this significant? Not according to VanPeak moderator RFM. I encourage one and all to read or reread his August 27th post, HPI? BFD!

SDH Sales to Listing Ratio

In the Part 1 post above, we see that overall SC SDH sales are reaching 2009 levels. In the chart below, we can see the same occurring with the SDH ‘Sales to Listing Ratio’. Year-to-date (Jan-Oct 2014) the ratio has reached 43% - only 2% off the 2009 year end total of 45%.

On a month-to-month basis August’s ratio was 66%; September’s jumped up to 77% and October fell back to 55%. The latter decline was due to the jump in new listings relative to those 59 sales. (Reminder: the Sales-to-Listing Ratio is calculated by dividing the number of sales by the number of new listing and multiplying the answer by 100).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1005]

You can see how the Sales-to-Listings Ratio (green line) has risen this year and is now close to the 2009 ratio. I learned something during the last few months – according to real estate boards, ratios between a buyers’ market (≥ 35%) and a sellers’ market (≤ 55% to 60%) indicate a “balanced” market (that's anywhere between the red lines). That being the case, it looks like the SC entered a “balanced” real estate market in the spring of 2007 and never escaped. Hmm, how does the substantive loss of home equity on the SC fit into this “balanced” market designation?

Finally, the REBGV SC charts showing all kinds of stuff since October 2012.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1006]


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12-03-2014, 08:33 AM,
#30
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Greetings Skook, big thank you for your amazing research/information on SC real estate. So impressive! I understand you have been battling some health issues over last few months, hence your posts have been delayed. Happy to have you back -- which I hope means you are feeling better. I have been waiting for your updates (checking weekly!) and was excited to see your posts this week. I am a Gibsons owner (purchased in 2003) and am considering selling in 2015. Selling will come w/costs (RE fees & capital gains) but I will still pull "profit" out of the house. The plan will be to move further up the Coast to Maderia Park and pick up a "fixer upper" to start the process again. Having said that, curious if you have been following the proposed George Hotel development ongoing in Town of Gibsons? I spoke with RE agents early in 2014 who declared that Gibsons property values will rise by $100K IF The George gets approved (and with the new council in place, looking quite likely). Anyways, thanks again for all your hard work keeping us SC and area RE junkies with a fix!
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