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Downtime Chat Room
03-01-2013, 09:31 AM,
#1
Downtime Chat Room
We can gather here during VCI downtimes.

I'll start:
Feb/13 vs Feb/12: (projected)
Inventory +4.8% YoY.
Sales -29.2%.
New Lists -13%.
MOI: 8.2 vs 5.5, firmly in Buyer's Market, unusually weak Feb.

Compared to 2 years ago (vs Feb 2011):
Sales -42%,
Total Inventory +23.5%,
Months-of-Inventory 8.2 vs 3.9.
How time has changed.

Larry's Avg price graph and other sales data
http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/03/ave...nake-bite/
- as yvr2zrh already discussed, we expected Avg price to go up due to skewed sales-mix and very low sample-size.

Vancouver West SFH Feb individual Sold price data:
http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/02/hair-cut/
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03-01-2013, 11:08 AM,
#2
RE: Downtime Chat Room
Funny, I can still post on VCI in the most recent thread. (Don't worry, you're not missing out -- it's just me talking to myself.) Pilfering those posts and posting them here:

Since I’m talking to myself –

The other hilarious thing about the whole Laura McLaren debacle is the reception that the fictional design is getting. This design was done by FX40 Building Design Corporation. They are quick to point out that they are not architects but have a background instead in interior design — so presumably the interior design would be well conceived, even if the building isn’t expected to remain free-standing as designed?

The UK Daily Mail was one of the outlets mistaking the renderings for an actual building, and their commentary dug a pretty deep hole for FX40′s visionary expertise to climb out of:

Quote:This gaudy and decrepit looking seafront mansion in west Vancouver is the most expensive residential listing in Canada with an asking price of a quite staggering $37.9 million.

The 5,500 square feet mansion is described as a suburban waterfront palace but in reality look [sic] more like something from the land that taste forgot with hideous gold and white interiors and dated features including a dome and minarets rising from the roof.
[...]
The gaudy mansion in Vancouver is expected to sell for $38 million with property developers eager to pull it down and build several smaller and more contemporary properties instead.
Other descriptors include “monstrous” and “interior disaster”.

Journalistic mistakes or not, FX40′s images feature pretty heavily in the article and I doubt it’s the reaction FX40 intended to provoke.
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03-01-2013, 11:30 AM,
#3
RE: Downtime Chat Room
Another "artist's rendition" listing uncovered:

http://thethirtiesgrind.com/2013/02/28/a...y-28-2013/
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03-01-2013, 12:00 PM,
#4
RE: Downtime Chat Room
(03-01-2013, 11:30 AM)VMD Wrote: Another "artist's rendition" listing uncovered:

http://thethirtiesgrind.com/2013/02/28/a...y-28-2013/

Hey VMD,

Did you see the YoY sales stats? What do you think of these stats?

2013 = 1,790 sales
2012 = 2,568 sales
2011 = 3,097 sales

Can you say screwed much? Sales are WAY down. And MOI is sky high for us so far. What do you think we will see for MOI come summer? Could we hit 15 or higher overall for REBGV areas?
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03-01-2013, 01:00 PM, (This post was last modified: 03-01-2013, 01:02 PM by VMD.)
#5
RE: Downtime Chat Room
@ScubaSteve

Below is my "conservative" projection, assuming Inventory and Sales #s follow similar trajectory as last year (no major adverse global/national financial event in 2013).

MOI Projections based on 20% YoY sales decline, and +5% YoY Total Inventory count.
MOI 2012 2013
Sep 12.1 15.9
Aug 10.7 14.0
July _8.6 11.3
Jun _7.8 10.3
May 6.3 _8.2
Apr _5.9 _7.8
Mar _5.3 _7.0
Feb _5.5 _8.2

So Yes, it's possible that we hit 15+ MOI by mid summer
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03-01-2013, 01:20 PM,
#6
RE: Downtime Chat Room
(03-01-2013, 01:00 PM)VMD Wrote: @ScubaSteve

Below is my "conservative" projection, assuming Inventory and Sales #s follow similar trajectory as last year (no major adverse global/national financial event in 2013).

MOI Projections based on 20% YoY sales decline, and +5% YoY Total Inventory count.
MOI 2012 2013
Sep 12.1 15.9
Aug 10.7 14.0
July _8.6 11.3
Jun _7.8 10.3
May 6.3 _8.2
Apr _5.9 _7.8
Mar _5.3 _7.0
Feb _5.5 _8.2

So Yes, it's possible that we hit 15+ MOI by mid summer

It would probably depend on how prices hold, right? If prices don't drop, the MOI would keep increasing as excess inventory builds up. If prices start dropping, inventory will start selling, and the MOI will lower as prices lower. My guess is that it will be slow to start in the beginning, so MOI will go higher and higher and prices slowly creep down. After that, price drops might start accelerating. Just a guess though!
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03-01-2013, 01:26 PM, (This post was last modified: 03-01-2013, 01:27 PM by VMD.)
#7
RE: Downtime Chat Room
Let's compare Feb 2013's sales # (by dwelling type) vs 2012 and 2011
Year DETACHED _ ATTACHED _ APARTMENT
2013 _707_______ 333______ 760______
2012 1103 (-36%) 424 (-21%) 1020 (-26%)
2011 1402 (-50%) 489 (-32%) 1206 (-37%)

The glory days of Vancouver realtors are over.
Expect unemployment/under-employment to rise in F.I.R.E and housing-related industries.
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