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Bowen Island/Gulf Islands - help please?
01-25-2015, 04:54 PM,
#41
RE: Bowen Island/Gulf Islands - help please?
(01-25-2015, 08:37 AM)Skook Wrote: December 2014 Sales Stats


So, that’s a wrap for 2014. JimmyWW predicted a while back that 2015 will be a pivotal year for sales and pricing and that prediction has been given momentum with the current oil shock and its ramifications for the Canadian economy. Of course, that is on the “macro” level. On the “micro” level, we have the collapse of the Wakefield Construction and it, too, could be felt in the months ahead if BI business owners and former Wakefield employees and subcontractors are unable to meet their mortgage obligations as a consequence. This will be an interesting year - don’t change the channel!

Amazing post, Sir (Lord?) Skook - you've outdone yourself. I want to offer a couple of on-the-ground anecdotes as I was on the island just before Christmas and viewed some properties and got some background - hope these flesh out your ingeniously sleuthed and dissected numbers:

1. Your December sales stat was right on the money. I can add to your data that one of those sales was approx $975K, so that will have pushed the overall number up a bit.

2. Whilst Dee's right about the average being 115% of assessment, there is wild fluctuation in those figures. In fact, the median (ie most commonly occurring) sale price on island is 104% of assessment. If you then consider that initial list can be as much as 175% over assessment, that tells its own story - as does the 350 average days on market: again, in such a small area, there are wild fluctuations inside that number. I can't prove it but I would be that 500 days would be the median, and 350 includes a few properties that are correctly priced and sell in days. Two homes I know for a fact have been on the market for 23 months and 62 months respectively.

3. Last anecdote - one property on Salal Road was first listed April 2013 for 1160000 and is now listed for 838600 following a foreclosure. I will wait with interest to see what it sells for, but my best guess would be low sevens - stunning, given its assessed value of 975000. Again this highlights the wild fluctuations in sale price to assessment in such a small community.

Finally and having mulled over my impressions and your brilliant data, I believe -- notwithstanding the rise in numbers of sales and an uptick in the average selling price in the last few months - that what we have here is a continued stand-off between buyers and sellers on the island. Two properties have just come back on the market with prices reduced by 3% and 5% respectively, having failed to sell for six months at the higher prices. Quite what difference the sellers believe a 3% price reduction will achieve is beyond me.

Whilst Skook has been too kind to me in not pointing out my failed prediction that average sales price would drop in Dec 14, I nonetheless repeat my prediction that the upcoming Spring market will be crucial to the next few years in the Gulfs - if its flat or there is a minor correction, that will set the tone; if not, things will more or less stay as they are until 2017.

One last comment: there are clearly some seriously un-motivated sellers on Bowen, as around 40 properties seem to have been on list for around 18months/2 years. When you consider that peak listings last year reached 100 properties , you're talking about 40% of sellers who aren't in any rush to sell - another factor which might explain the stickiness of prices.

I'll close by thanking Skook again: my wife is a professional statistician and she speaks admiringly of your work!

Jimmy
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01-28-2015, 04:22 PM,
#42
RE: Bowen Island/Gulf Islands - help please?
Minor rant - more relistings today with 2-3% price drops... anyone explain the point of these to me? If it didn't sell at 919000, why will it suddenly do so at $20l,000 less??
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01-29-2015, 11:43 AM,
#43
RE: Bowen Island/Gulf Islands - help please?
Aw, Jimmy. As each month and year passes, I think we have to conclude that real estate markets are not rational especially on the BC coast...LOL.

Thanks for all the kind words in your previous post. However, it's your on-the-ground experience that is most valuable as far as I'm concerned. Hope you'll keep posting what you see and hear on your journeys to Bowen Island even if you might think it trivial. All those little gems add up.
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