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2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
04-01-2014, 05:46 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-04-2014, 06:19 AM by Skook.)
#11
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
March 2014 Sales Stats:

SC Realtors, you did it!

March 2014 will not go down in history as the worst March for SDH sales over the last 13 years.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=844]

Nope, March 2014 will not be the worst - it'll be the 2nd worst!!



(You can check out those March detached home sales from 2001 - 2014 in the top table below.)

Okay, let’s get busy with the March 2014 stats. In the 2014 Monthly Sales table, we see that March has done much better than February especially its single detached home sales, and I would hope so it’s the start of the spring market. So, total sales by all types jumped +24% compared to February and not so much compared to January, but those January sales surprised everyone since they were the best January in 4 years. They certainly raised expectations for 2014.

Now, if we look at March’s sales on year-over-year it’s not so good. Total sales have been declining since 2011 and especially those single detached home sales. Those detached sales totals in the YOY table come from SC Realtor Gary Little’s stats. You will notice that they differ from the table above which are from the REBGV monthly stats packages. I am inclined to go with Little’s stats because his numbers may take it account sales that failed to close. This is something to keep in mind when Board’s report their monthly stats.

When an offer is made and accepted on a SDH, it will be reported as sold to the Board. However, likely a majority of those “sales” have conditions that must be met within a certain time frame - likely 30, 60, or 90 days; for example, conditions such as repairs to the roof, or septic system. But, more than likely those conditions will hinge on the buyer selling his/her home or obtaining financing. If these conditions are not met, then the sale falls through and I am sure the Board will have to be notified to correct its stats. However, we likely won’t see that correction until the end of the year; or, maybe even the year following. So, as I said let’s stick with Little’s stats since they may be closer to the mark. So, on a year-over-year basis March 2014 sales are nothing to cheer about.

(April 2nd: I have added an important note to the bottom of this post regarding this discrepancy issue.)

[Image: attachment.php?aid=841]

The next table directly below breaks down March sales (all types) by market area and compares 2014 to 2013. In the small table on the far right, we can see that both Roberts Creek and Halfmoon Bay are in the “red” on a year-to-date basis compared to 2013; Pender Harbour is coasting and that total sales (all types) are up +11% compared to Jan-Mar, 2013.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=842]

The table directly above show that March single detached home sales in Gibsons and Sechelt bettered 2013 but have failed to improve on 2012 and 2011 results. The three remaining SC market areas are in the “red” and, as we know from above, total detached homes sales continue to drop on a year-over -year basis. With the year-to-date (Jan-Mar) DSH sales, only Sechelt showed improvement over 2013. The table shows that total detached year-to-date sales (Jan-Mar) are in the “red” for the third straight year since 2011.

I recently explored the issue of “sales-to-list” ratio (new listings per month only) in the thread, ‘Sunshine Coast Real Estate: A Seller's or Buyer's Market?’ and according to the REBGV when the ratio is less than 35% it is a “buyers” market. When the ratio is equal to or greater than 55%-60%, it is a “sellers” market.

Here is the single detached home sales-to-list ratio for the first three months of 2014:

Jan: 26%, Feb: 19.2%, Mar: 25.6%

Those percentages are indicating a strong ‘buyers’ market and will likely remain so if the present pace of new listings continues. Yesterday, total single detached listings reached 647 and last year it took until May 7th to obtain that number.

Now, let’s look at the “unofficial” detached March ‘sales-by-price’ - I’ll have the official results from the REBGV within the week. Here is how those 31 sales were distributed:
  • Less than $200,000 = 1 (house in Sechelt)
  • $200,000 - $299,000 = 6
  • $300,000 - $399,999 = 11
  • $400,000 - $499,000 = 5 (2 in Gibsons, 2 in Sechelt, 1 in Halfmoon Bay)
  • 1 at $700,000 (Gibsons)
  • 1 at $835,000 (Gibsons)
  • $900,000 - $999,999 = 2 (both in Gibsons)
  • $1mill+ = 2 (1 in Halfmoon Bay, 1 in Gibsons)
There were 2 manufactured homes on acreages that are also thrown in the detached sales count but I have not included them here, but both were under $300,000.

So, not only is it a “buyers” market those buyers are no longer interested in blowing their “wad” on becoming house rich but investments poor. I honestly think they’re beginning to worry about not being able to sell down the road in 10 on ten years or so because they will be chasing a far smaller pool of buyers who will be far poorer than the baby boomer generation.

For anyone trying to sell their homes today, I think most may have to accept the fact they won’t move until they drop below assessment. This is sad, but I think it is true.

I will finish with the March SDH homes Median Sales Price, but don’t get excited that it’s up vs February. While one of those $1mill+ homes would have been removed from the calculation, the second would have remained and influenced that median sales price; so, that figure is off the mark.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=843]

I will add the sales-by-price range pie chart, the HPI and Benchmark price data when the REBGV releases it March stats and charts packages.

April 2nd Note:

There is another reason for this "detached" discrepancy between the Board tally in the 'SDH Sales 2001 - 2014' table and Little's figures that I remembered late last night. Little lists Mobile homes on Pads (MOP) separately from Detached sales in his stats. So, if you look at the 'SC March Total Sales YOY' table and add the Mobile and Detached tallies together you will see that the totals now match the Board totals for 2011 and 2012. For 2013, there is a difference of 1 sale which I believe would be a collapsed sale (likely late in Nov or Dec) that the Board has yet to account for in its stats but will likely do so at the end of 2014.

Therefore, this would increase March 2014 Detached sales to 32, March 2013 to 36, March 2012 to 40, and March 2011 to 44. The percentage differences between the years would look like this:

32 (-11%), 36 (-10%), 40 (-5%), 42

This tally change and its subsequent effect on the percent differences definitely impacts how we view the drop in March detached sales over the last 4 years. It definitely gives greater significance to the drop happening in 2013 vs 2012 and makes last month's sales drop far worse than indicated in the table. (If we compare March 2014 detached sales to March 2012, it is a significant drop of -20%)

For a few months last year, I did put Mobile sells in with Detached sales but then thought it was helpful to know how many of the sales were MOP and went back to following Little's accounting method. Now, I am not so sure. I think mid-month, I will sit down and redo all my tables to include MOP sales with detached sales and see this how this impacts percentage changes from Jan - Mar. That will be fun - not!

April 4, 2010 Update:


Here is the HPI and Benchmark Price data for March. Both show a slight increase; the HPI rose by 0.8 and the Benchmark is back up to December 2013 figure. I’m attributing the Benchmark increase to the 4 properties that sold in Gibsons in the $700,000 to $999,999 price range.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=857]

Despite the rise in the Benchmark price, the drop from the July, 2010 price peak nudged up only slightly; it now stands at -26.1% vs February’s -26.6%.

Still to come: the SDH Sales-by-Price Range YTD chart, Detached Sales-to-Listing ratio and the REBGV SC charts.


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04-04-2014, 09:50 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-04-2014, 10:47 AM by Skook.)
#12
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
March 2014 sales stats continued…

Here are the REBGV stats for SC detached home sales-by-price range for March and the year-to-date results which are illustrated by the pie chart. Despite sales this month in the $500,000 - $999,999 range, the majority occurred under $400,000. The chart shows that those under $400,000 sales now account for nearly ⅔ of the year-to-date detached sales.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=858]

Let’s see how March’s poor detached sales have impacted the year-to-date ‘sales-to-list’- ratio. Total detached sales according to the Board stands at 84 - this includes 3 manufactured homes on land, and 4 manufactured homes on pads. The YTD total of “new” monthly detached listings now stands at 348 or 4.1 times the number of sales. As a result, the ‘sales-to-list’ ratio remains a bleak 24% for the first three months of year (it increased only 1% over last month’s YTD ratio); and, according to the REBGV, a ratio under 35% is a “buyers” market. I expect sales to pick up somewhat; however, if new listings continue at the present pace, any increase in sales will make little difference.

So given this 24% ratio, if I were a SC Realtor and someone came into the office saying, “I want to list my home”, the first question I would as is, “Why?” If the answer was, “Oh, I’m just curious to see what offers I get” or “I want to see how the market values my home” I would then say, “Don’t bother because the current market won’t be placing the same value on it as you do and you will just get frustrated or angry at any low-ball offers you get, if you get any. I suggest you come back and see me next year.”

Here’s the complete REBGV SC ‘Sales-by-Price’ table showing detached, attached, and apartment (condo) sales for March and the year-to-date figures.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=859]

Finally, here are the remaining REBGV SC charts. The ‘Average Price & Median Price’ detached table shows a good jump for both figures, however it is important to remember that they include two ‘$1mill+’ property sales which significantly skew those figures. Those two sales are also reflected in the detached ‘Dollar Value’ chart. The five townhome sales this much including one at Wakefield Beach ($435,000) resulted in a nice jump in the attached ‘Dollar Volume’ chart. There were also five condo sales (apartment) this month; however, since there were no sales at the Watermark in Sechelt, the dollar volume has dropped significantly from February.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=860]


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04-11-2014, 08:45 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-11-2014, 12:12 PM by Skook.)
#13
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
It’s time to look back on March’s Sunshine Coast with our favourite bard, Prudential Sussex Realtor Kenan MacKenzie. I have to admit I have been tih-tih-tingling with anticipation to read his ‘Real Estate Reflections’ which appeared in the April 4th edition of the Coast Reporter’s Real Estate Weekly.

I did have a bit of fun with his February report, but I paid the price. This month I am taking a more sober approach to Kenan’s March analysis (need my wits about me), so I am preparing this post in the morning.

Now, we saw that whether intentionally or not, Kenan pumped up February’s detached sales by actually giving the total sales figure (all types) rather than just the detached sales figures; but, who can fault him as he has a tough row to hoe. He needs to excite buyers while not depressing sellers. So, let’s see how he manages this herculean task given March’s depressing sales figures. Without further delay, Kenan MacKenzie…

Quote:Sunshine Coast Detached listings
There are 669 current detached listings up from March. Year to date detached sales ending March 31, 2014 there were 78 detached sales, in 2013 there were 99 sales and in 2012 there were 122 sales for the same time period. The current market’s hot price range is below $400,000, with 50 sales occurring in this price range. With the current pace of sales this represents a 25 month supply of listings.

(Skook: Bravo! Rather than giving March’s sales figures, Kenan took a ‘year-to-date’ approach. That was a truly brilliant solution. Unfortunately, he had to throw in the 2013 and 2012 YTD numbers which was a real bummer, but hopefully no one sat down long enough to compare the results. 25 month supply of listings = 2 years 1 month.)

Sunshine Coast Attached Listing
There are 157 current attached listings. Attached sales ending March 31, 2014 totalled 26, in 2013 there were 25 sales and in 2012 there were 26 sales for the same time period. With the current pace of sales this represents an 18-month supply of listings. Attached listings represent strata unit apartments, condos and townhouses. Attached sales are up slightly over the previous year.

(Skook: The year-to-date comparison continues for attached sales; however, the REBGV reported 19 sales in 2013 and 23 sales in 2012. Oh well, not a big deal since 2014 YTD betters both those years and that’s what matters. 18 month supply = 1 year 6 months).

Sunshine Coast Land listing
There are 380 bare land listings. Land sales ending March 31, 2014 totalled 11, in 2013 there were 12 sales and in 2012 there were 13 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents a 121-month supply.

(Skook: Hmm, Kenan must be reporting YTD land sales of less than 1 acre which would be 11; however, if you include land sales equal to or greater than 1 acre, the YTD total is 16. My 2013 YTD total = 11 (above and below 1 acre). The 2012 YTD sales = 11 (above and below 1 acre). A 121 month supply = 10 years 1 month.)

The Stats below are for detached sales only and for the entire Sunshine Coast for the month of March:
  • $000 to $300,000 with 26 sales
  • $301,000 to $400,000 with 24 sales
  • $401,000 to $500,000 with 10 sales
  • $501,000 to $600,000 with seven sales
  • $601,000 to $700,000 with four sales
  • $701,000 to $ 800,000 with three sales
  • $801,000 to $900,000 with one sale
  • $901,000 to $1,000,000 with three sales
  • Two sales over $1,001,000 this month
(Skook: I’m not going to bother checking these numbers, time’s a wasting so I’m heading to directly to Kenan’s conclusion. However, you can confirm Kenan's figures by comparing them to the REBGV 'Sales by Price Range' table in the post directly above.)

Buyers are getting a lot more for their money we can see by the stats that most of the sales have occurred below $400,000. What the stats do not show is what the buyer is getting for their money. When I look back at 2007 and compare to what a $400,000 home looked like, today the buyer is doing quite well. The wages set the limit and we can see across other markets that $400,000 is the sweet spot. In Vancouver you get a condo for that price on the Sunshine Coast you get a beautiful home. The Sunshine Coast has some terrific buying opportunity for someone looking for a great deal, history shows us that it will not last and the seller will be in the driver’s seat soon.

Let’s break this down that conclusion sentence by sentence.

“…most of the sales have occurred below $400,000.” - Yep, agree with that.

“What the stats do not show is what the buyer is getting for their money. When I look back at 2007 and compare to what a $400,000 home looked like, today the buyer is doing quite well.” - My interpretation: House prices are collapsing and, in fact, the collapse is picking up steam.

“The wages set the limit and we can see across other markets that $400,000 is the sweet spot.” - My interpretation: Huh?

Does this mean that wage earners on the SC are now piss-pot-poor? Or, that all the full-time, well-paying construction jobs have disappeared? Or, that the only work now available on the SC is part-time paying minimum wage? Or, that small businesses are disappearing and so are the jobs which explains the increase in house listings which is driving down prices? Or, all of the above?

“In Vancouver you get a condo for that price on the Sunshine Coast you get a beautiful home.” My interpretation : I can make this look good.

Well, since condo prices in Vancouver are collapsing, and if there exists a synchronicity between SC home sales and Vancouver condo prices, then buckle up and hold on folks because the roller coaster ride is on the downward slope and that slope is getting steeper and steeper.




“The Sunshine Coast has some terrific buying opportunity for someone looking for a great deal, history shows us that it will not last and the seller will be in the driver’s seat soon.” My interpretation: Lordy, this can’t continue, can it? I just have to think positive - where’s the Natural Law Party when you need it, eh?

Now, sellers haven’t been in the driver’s seat since 2007, and likely won’t be again until…hell freezes over? You only have to check out the Detached ‘Sales to Listings’ chart in the post directly above and remember that under 35% is a buyers’ market an equal to or over 55% is a sellers’ market. A full explanation of the ratio can be found in the thread, ‘Sunshine Coast Real Estate: A Seller's or Buyer's Market?’

Coming up next - April’s SC real estate sales from the 1st - 10th. Beauty.
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05-03-2014, 10:14 AM,
#14
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
i am guessing skook the realtors favorite line has changes from - you cant lose on waterfront or their is no more waterfront so you cant lose must have changed.....when i look at the the number of days on the market i see that virtually nothing is selling.....took a tour of wharf road condos.....looks pretty empty to me though realtor says 40% sold???? Skook are you posting new info for April
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05-04-2014, 05:32 PM,
#15
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Looking forward to April month end results. Being a Lower Gibsons property owner (since the hay day of Summer 2003 when multiple bids was the norm) I also check Joni & Gail's site weekly. Appreciate the fact they publish the sold price -- always insightful! Awesome & very specific RE info & perspective provided here -- thank you for that!
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05-30-2014, 04:45 AM, (This post was last modified: 05-30-2014, 04:53 AM by Skook.)
#16
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Hey georgie girl and Jay Kay - welcome to VanPeak!

Sorry for the delay in responding to your posts. I had to step away for almost a month, but I am back although in a more limited capacity…Tongue I've started to pull the data together for the SC’s April sales stats and hope to have it all up by tomorrow night- just in time to begin working on the May stats which will likely be late getting posted, too.

Glad you are both finding value in the SC forum posts and I look forward to reading your own comments and insights regarding real estate on the SC - past, present and future. Consider this a strong hint to jump aboard…Big Grin
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06-14-2014, 08:01 AM, (This post was last modified: 06-14-2014, 08:11 AM by Skook.)
#17
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
April 2014 Sales Stats:

I have pulled the April Sales data together and, hopefully, there aren’t many glaring errors. As I mentioned in ‘A Message from Skook,’ not all cylinders are firing upstairs or they’re intermittent at best…LOL. So, here’s my best shot at making sense of these numbers.

When I look at the active listings and sales data for the last few months, it’s almost as if everything is happening a month or two earlier than what would normally be the case (see the ‘Total Sales by Month’ table below). You might want to keep this in the back of your mind when looking at April’s sales (May is going to show the same pattern, too). The big question is whether or not this sales upswing will be sustained over the summer months.

Total April sales (all types) increased for the second month in a row and detached sales saw a nice bounce; however, both figures still failed to reach April 2012 sales levels.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=916]

Sechelt edged out Gibsons’ residential sales (all types) in April: 26 vs 23; however, Gibsons did manage a few extra single detached home sales: 20 vs 18 (I’m excluding MOPs). Year-To-Date Total Sales shows Sechelt and Gibsons bettering 2013 by almost the same percentage; there is no growth once again in Pender Harbour; and, Roberts Creek seems to have lost its lustre with YTD sales now down -64% compared to last year.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=917]

Single Detached Home Sales:

The last few months I have been including the table ‘SDH Sales 2001-2014’ for interest sake and to determine if there is any momentum towards significant change in sales. I pointed out that this historical data comes from the REBGV Monthly Stats package and that the REBGV includes ‘Manufactured on Pad’ (MOPS) in the detached home sales data.

I also pointed out that I turn to SC Realtor Gary Little’s monthly sales stats data since he breaks down the data into the five SC market areas. However, I pointed out that he handles detached sales differently by separating MOP sales which leads to a discrepancy between his numbers and REBGV numbers. I mentioned that I would try to correct to this and have taken the first step this month in the ‘April SDH Sales YOY’ table on the left above. I am now showing both the detached and MOP sale in the same box (e.g. Gibsons: 20+1). As a result, the detached sales total for April 2014 now matches the REBGV detached sales total. However, I still have not corrected the ‘SDH Sales YTD - YOY’ table and these totals continue to be based solely on Little’s separated data.

Does any of this make sense? LOL. Yep, Skook is sounding like a stoner; so, moving right along, happy as can be…

*************************

Next up, the REBGV’s Sunshine Coast detached home sales by price range (property sales under $1 million). Remember, these are coast-wide sales and, in April, the homes moving were priced under $400,000. On the right side of the pie chart below, I’ve added a ‘YTD % Total’ table and detached sales from $200,000 - $399,999 accounted for 57.6% of 2014 sales.

There was a nice jump in sales under $100,000 this month, too, with five this month. Falling MOP prices means more affordable housing and there have been good looking homes available at decent prices.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=918]

The SDH Median Sales Price took a slight dip in April reflecting the make-up of the month’s ‘Sales By Price Range’ data above.
Except for January, the monthly median prices have been lower than 2013 which again is a reflection of the price range sales - the homes selling are under the $400,000 mark.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=919]

While the median sales price dropped in April, the SDH Benchmark Price rose - for the second month. The explanation for the rise is the fact that the REBGV includes the sale of detached homes value at $1million plus in its calculations and there were two such sales in March and one in April. The calculation for the median price removes the very highest and very lowest sales which explains why we say a rise in the median price in March followed by a dip in April.
[Image: attachment.php?aid=920]

The single detached 'Sales-to-List Ratio' saw a nice jump in April reflecting an increase in sales relative to the number of new listings for the month. However, overall the year-to-date ratio shows the Sunshine Coast remains entrenched in a “buyer’s” market - a fact reflected in the continuing high volume of downward price drops as sellers’ hope to become one of the few “lucky” ones to find a buyer.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=921]

To conclude, here are the REBGV April sales chart for the Sunshine Coast.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=922]


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08-02-2014, 10:57 AM, (This post was last modified: 08-02-2014, 07:19 PM by Skook.)
#18
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
May and June, 2014 Sales Stats:

I am combining both May and June Sunshine Coast sales stats in this post; so, grab a coffee, kick back and relax because there’s a lot of numbers to wade through and it will take a while.

Total Sales (all types):
The SC has now experienced four straight months of positive total sales data with May jumping ahead of April by +32%. June followed with a more modest +18% over May; however, those 93 total sales were worth a long, loud cheer - haven’t seen a number like that in more than a few years.

New Stats Calculation:
As I was putting together May’s data (yes, I actually had all the data tables and charts completed but didn’t have the energy to write it up and post it) I looked at the “Total Sales YOY” table and asked myself, “Why am I reporting the data this way?” I was taking the month’s year-over-year sales and calculating the % change on a year versus year basis (2014 vs 2013, 2013 vs 2012, 2012 vs 2011) and I thought, “Do we really care about 2013 vs 2012 and 2012 vs 2011?” Wouldn’t it be more interesting to know the % change of the current year vs 2013, vs 2012, vs 2011? So, this is what I have done for both the “June Total Sales YOY” and “May Total Sales YOY” tables in the second row below; for example, it is June 2014 vs June 2013 (1YChg), June 2014 vs June 2012 (2YChg) and June 2014 vs June 2011 (3YChg). Hope this change works for you!

[Image: attachment.php?aid=943]

How about that “Total Sales by Month” Chart? I’m getting vertigo just contemplating the new height reached this year. Who or what do we give credit and thanks to? The BoC governor for keeping the bank rate low? Credit Unions across the country for starting a new battle offering even lower mortgage rates? Those continuously dropping detached, attached and land prices on the Sunshine Coast? Ya gotta love it except if you bought between 2006 and 2011 and have watched your property value sink lower and lower with each passing year; but, that’s what happens when a real estate market enters a correction. The question is, “Is the SC finally emerging from its seven year correction or is the last few months a dead cat bounce?”

Roberts Creek continues to be the big loser on year-to-date total sales of all the market areas on the SC; although, it did pick up a bit of steam in June. Overall, YTD sales this month are up +23% compared to 2013.

Single Detached Home Sales:
May’s 64 SDH home sales (61 detached homes + 3 manufactured on pad) was the best May showing since the market collapse of 2007 while June’s was the best since 2009.

I have applied the same “New Stats Calculation” described above to the May and June “SDH Sales YOY” and “DH Sales YTD - YOY” data tables below. So, the % change data for 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011 all relate back to the reporting month in 2014. So, in May’s “SDH Sales YTD (Jan-May) - YOY” table we can see that Roberts Creek’s 10 sales are down -55% compared to May, 2012; the 10 sales are down -47% compared to May 2012; and, the 10 sales are down -50% compared to May 2011. Total sales in that same table show May 2014 was still slightly lower than May 2012; however, by June’s table total SDH sales are all in the green when comparing June 2014 to June 2013, 2012 and 2011.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=944]

The REBGV “Sales by Price Range” Data for the Sunshine Coast continues to support the view that single detached home buyers are looking for a sweet deal and they are getting them as prices continue to fall. The “YTD (Jan-June) % Total” table shows that +60.8% of SDH sales occurred below the $400,000 price point - yes, that’s +60.8%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=945]

The SDH median sales price took a jump in May due to the number of “$1million plus” homes sold that month (4 sales).

June’s sole “$1million plus” sale was bumped from the calculation and June’s median sales price fell as a result.

May’s SDH HPI and Benchmark price continued their upward momentum. May’s “Drop from Peak” decreased to -22.9% compared to April’s -24.5%. However, June’s data is flattening out which tells me that the party’s over for 2014. Remember, the real estate boards all say that the HPI and Benchmark Price are the best tools for showing market trends.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=946]

May and June’s increase in sales relative to the number of new listings added during those two months saw the “Sales-to-List” increase to +44% for May and +54% for June; however, the year-to-date “Sales-to-List” ratio still shows the SC remains a “Buyer’s Market” (≤ 35%).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=947]


Here are the REBGV June sales charts for the Sunshine Coast. These charts complete the SC May and June 2014 sales stats.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=948]

Stay tuned. Coming up next the SC July, 2014 sales stats and it looks like the party is over 2014 - lots of red!


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08-02-2014, 03:29 PM, (This post was last modified: 08-08-2014, 04:09 PM by Skook.)
#19
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
July, 2014 SC Sales Stats:

I am going to start posting the July sales stats because they’re just so darn inspiring following those heady numbers in May and particularly June.

So, let’s see compared to June - total sales down -37%, detached sales down -20%, attached sales down -75%, MOP sales down -67% and land sales down -70%. You can’t get any redder than that on a month to month basis.

July year-over-year stats are all in red, too, compared to 2013 and only detached sales showed positive results when comparing July 2014 sales to July 2012 and July 2011 sales.

Year-to-date total residential sales by area are all in positive territory except for Roberts Creek sales when comparing 2014 to 2013. Gibsons has had the hottest market to date in 2014 with sales up +34% compared to last year.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=952]

Zeroing in on single detached home sales alone we can see how last month fared going back all the way to July 2000. Overall, July does herald the end of the selling season on the Sunshine Coast; so, if a property has moved by now it likely won’t this year.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=953]

Just a reminder that last month I introduced new data calculations to the “Total Sales YOY” table and the “SDH Sales YOY” and SDH YTD - YOY” tables (these last two directly above). I am now giving the 1Y%Chg, 2Y%Chg and 3Y%Chg all relative to July 2014 data. (Hope this makes sense). Before, I was calculating % chg year to year (2014 vs 2013, 2013 vs 2012, and 2012 vs 2011 and I thought this wasn't very useful info - if you disagree, please let me know).

I mentioned before that I use SC Realtor Gary Little’s detailed monthly stats as the basis for my report. I pointed out that he separates Detached sales and Manufactured on Pad sales; however, the REBGV combines this data in its reports. So, the tables above are a high-bred - I show both Detached + MOP in the same box in the YOY table if there were sales in both (e.g. HMB: 4+1). The YTD - YOY table on the right is the total combine detached + MOP sales.

So, we can see that July SDH sales YOY are down -5% overall compared to 2013 and that Roberts Creek, Sechelt and Pender Harbour all saw SDH sales drop compared to July 2013.

******************************

August 8, 2014: time to finish off the SC July sales stats.

Single Detached Median Sales Price:
This month there is a noticeable difference between SC Realtor Gary Little’s sales data and the REBGV data. Gary shows 52 single detached home sales and a median sales price of $395,250 (Note: I removed one of those detached sales from the total because it was actually a townhouse at Wakefield Beach). The REBGV data shows a total of 55 detached sales (includes MOP sales) with a median sales price of $380,000. I tend to accept Gary’s total as more accurate because he would note any collapsed sales before the Board would. So, the median sales price below is based on Gary’s sales data which shows a slight increase over last month; however, if Gary included the single MOP sales this month that median sales price might drop a bit.

HPI & Benchmark Price:
Last month, I noted the June’s data signalled a change coming since both were “flattening” out and July proved me right since July’s figures were exactly the same as June’s. I think the increase we saw in the HPI and Benchmark will prove to be a “dead cat bounce” and with the selling season now more or less over both figures will begin to drop. The homes that do sell during the remainder of the year will on the whole max out below $400,000 and we will see lower median and benchmark sales prices and HPI data.

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SDH Sales-by-Price Range:
Once again, the majority of single detached home sales on the SC occurred in the $300,000 - $399,000 price range: the January - July YTD % Total shows that 59.4% of sales have occurred under $400,000. This is a 1.4% drop from June’s 60.8%; however, this doesn’t change the fact that buyers continue to look for value for their dollars and maybe willing to forego certain items like granite countertops and stainless steel appliances to get that value.

If the majority of buyers to the coast are retirees, then I believe this trend will continue. Low interest rates since the 2009 market crash have many scrambling to make up for lost investment income and they are likely doing so by selling their family homes as high as possible and buying their retirement “dream” home on the SC or Van Island at the best bargain price they can negotiate.

Those desperate to sell on the SC will have to keep this in mind as the year continues to unfold. Some of the recent price changes I seen on the SC have involved properties that have long held out dropping their price; well, those sellers are getting the message now.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=955]

Single Detached Sales-to-List Ratio:
July’s drop in sales and lower new listings figure was reflected in the Sales-to-List ratio which fell to 46% from June’s 54%. The ratio year-to-date total now rests at 37% - the same total reached for all of 2013. If we look at the year-to-date ratios in the table on the right below, we see the ratio has been dropping each year since the financial crisis of 2009 and its been inching ever close to the 35% mark - if the ratio is equal to or less than that 35% we have a full blown “buyers” market. Will the SC cross the Rubicon? Well, the ratio is dependent on both how many properties are sold and the number of new listings each month. Falling prices could spur sales and desperation to sale could spur the number of listings - so this one is hard to call. However, my gut feeling is that the final 2014 ratio will either match 2013 at 37% or be slightly lower at 35-36%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=956]

The REBGV SC July sales charts follow in another post below.


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08-04-2014, 06:27 AM,
#20
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Once again, great info, Skook!
We are planning to put an offer in on a property on the SC in the next 2 to 4 weeks and like so many other places for sale, this one has been listed for a few months and not one single offer has been presented on it.
Over the past several weeks, we have seen more than a dozen places in person and have noticed an odd phenomenon up there.. Many sellers do little or nothing to make their homes presentable. Do they really want to sell? Well, they are packing things into boxes, are often still there during showings and some places are just filthy. I can generally look past those things, but that behaviour gives me a negative impression of how they took care of the place.
Our upcoming offer will be low, because the seller has done nothing but move in and use the place - no updates of any kind, there is some minor maintenance items that I would need to fix and year after year, the assessed value of this place (like almost everywhere on the coast), has dropped significantly.
We know that there is a cyclic component to the property values, but that is a supposition and the current data shows that our investment will drop in value after we buy it. If we were only doing it as an investment, we would not even consider the coast.
We are currently emptying out our home into a storage place, except for those things we'll need for staging it for the typical 2 day open house we plan to have, accepting offers on the evening of the 3rd day. The house will likely sell for a decent amount with a few offers, which is exactly what happened a few doors down about 3weeks ago. Completely different markets.
We hope the seller will see that if he doesn't accept our offer, we simply go down our list and make an offer on the next place and so on until we get a bite.
This is what it's like, selling in a hot market and buying in a dead one. We know moving back to the LM would not be easy, unless somehow the situation at both ends changes dramatically.
This site, careful observation, due diligence and Gary Little's site have been my schooling on our move, so hopefully I'll get it right and end up where we want to be...
(PS, glad to hear things are a bit better for you, Skook!)
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