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Sunshine Coast Small Business: A Looming Crisis?
04-02-2014, 09:31 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-02-2014, 10:41 AM by Skook.)
#3
RE: Sunshine Coast Small Business: A Looming Crisis?
Excellent post, Jimmy. Thanks for sharing this anecdotal evidence because like you I think it illustrates what is likely to unfold here; and I, think it is now underway.

Much has been written about the personal debt loads Canadians are carrying with the most recent update appearing in this CBC new story, ‘Consumer debt snowballs to $1.4T: Canadians' debt load rises 4.5% in 4th quarter of 2013 and 9% year-on-year’.

Quote:Total consumer debt increased by 4.5 per cent between the third and fourth quarters of 2013 and by 9.1 per cent when compared with a year earlier, when Canadians owed a total of $1.303 trillion.

…Canadians' debt load continued to grow last year in all respects, with credit balances, limits and volume all rising year-on-year.

The size of mortgage debt and instalment loans increased by about 12 per cent each between the fourth quarters of 2012 and 2013 while credit card debt was up almost six per cent, with Canadians owing $81.6 billion on their credit cards in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The rising debt load is "a number that seems to defy gravity," said Cristian deRitis, senior director of consumer credit economics at Moody's Analytics, in a news release. "Debt service ratios, however, are stable indicating that most households have adequate income to service their debts."

So, this news story seems to indicate Canadians are managing to meet their obligations and many RE blog commentators have queried, “How is this possible?” and “Why aren’t personal bankruptcies increasing?” Well, the answer to that last question appeared in a Globe & Mail piece two days ago, ‘Canadians opt to negotiate debt woes, skip bankruptcy’.

Quote:For the 12 months ending Jan. 31, total consumer insolvencies – which includes bankruptcies and proposals in which a negotiated deal with creditors is struck – decreased by 0.5 per cent compared with the 12-month period ending Jan. 31, 2013, says the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada.

But consumer bankruptcies decreased by 4.1 per cent, while consumer proposals rose by 4.8 per cent in the 12-month period.

The proportion of proposals increased to 41.9 per cent during the 12-month period ending Jan. 31, up from 39.8 per cent during the previous 12-month period.

One of the key reasons for the rise in consumer proposals is that personal bankruptcies became more expensive when the federal government brought in changes to the law in 2009…

Under the terms of a consumer proposal, an individual negotiates – with a bankruptcy trustee – to repay creditors part of his or her debt for a fixed period of time, or else the time given to pay off the debt is extended.

However, BC residents appear to be bucking this trend to negotiate debt, according to a March 11, 2014 Vancouver Sun, Barbara Yaffe story,‘Vancouver residents play with fire over debt’.

Quote:…B.C. is the only province west of Quebec that, in the past year, has not registered a decline in bankruptcies and consumer proposals (the latter involves a proposal for partial repayment of debt).

Now, what about businesses? I turned to the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada report that is the basis for the March 31st Globe & Mail story. (Highlighting is mine own)

Quote:The total number of insolvencies (bankruptcies and proposals) in Canada increased by 8.2 percent in January 2014 from the previous month. Bankruptcies increased by 2.3 percent, whereas proposals increased by 16.5 percent.

The total number of insolvencies in January 2014 was 5.4 percent lower than the total number of insolvencies in January 2013. Consumer insolvencies decreased by 5.6 percent, while business insolvencies increased by 1.3 percent.

Business insolvencies for the 12-month period ending January 31, 2014, fell by 0.4 percent compared with the 12-month period ending January 31, 2013. The three sectors that registered the biggest decrease in the number of insolvencies were construction, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade, whereas the accommodation and food services sector experienced the biggest rise in insolvencies.

So, Jimmy it looks like Canada is well on its way to mirroring what occurred in the Britain after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Thanks for drawing our attention to the future. I think your $0.02c worth has jumped substantially in value.
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RE: Sunshine Coast Small Business: A Looming Crisis? - by Skook - 04-02-2014, 09:31 AM

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