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SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
08-01-2013, 09:12 AM, (This post was last modified: 08-01-2013, 09:14 AM by Skook.)
#11
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
Here are the Sunshine Coast Sales Stats for July, 2013.

July's SC sales beat my expectations. Total Sales (69) went back into the green compared to the previous month (61) and bettered last July's sales (63); however, on a YTD basis the SC continues its slide into the red down 9.2% (-9.2%) Year-to-Date compared to 2012.

Gibsons continues to be the biggest loser in YTD sales (-21.5%) followed by Halfmoom Bay (-21.2%) and Sechelt (-8.7%). Only Roberts Creek (+48%) and Pender Harbour (+15.4%) have seen their YTD sales rise above 2012.

This month's increased sales could be due in part to those taking advantage of the last month for pre-arranged mortgages at lower rates or to buy and lock-in for 10 year fixed rates before interest rates rise any further.

As well, prices continue to drop on the SC which has to be tempting for those wanting to buy. What would be interesting to know is where the buyers are coming from - are they from BC (i.e. lower mainland) or are they from out of province (particularly Alberta or Saskatchewan).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=324]


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08-12-2013, 01:03 PM, (This post was last modified: 08-12-2013, 01:05 PM by Skook.)
#12
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
July, 2013 REBGV Sunshine Coast Sales Data charts:

[Image: attachment.php?aid=337]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=338]


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08-31-2013, 03:59 PM,
#13
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
:@
(05-05-2013, 11:32 AM)Skook Wrote: Hi Susan,

Welcome to Vancouver Peak. Thank you for taking the time to post and letting us know what you think about our data and most importantly telling us about your experience as a resident of the Sunshine Coast. We hope you will keep us updated on your real estate hunt.

The links you gave were invaluable. As a result, I have been able to find the historic real estates figures for all the Sunshine Coast for the years 2000-2012 - which I will be putting to good use in future posts. I created a table and chart from that data and have posted it in my updated 'Home Values and Sales Data 2000-2012' thread. I am sure others will find your links very helpful, too. Thanks for sharing!

Also, Susan, please don't hesitate to post if you find any errors in my data now and in the future or if you have anything to add. I welcome your input.

Cheers,
Skook

hi Skook:

Unlike you, I didn't think Susan's references were of much use. The Joni and Gail things seemed to go nowhere and the Sandy Bellamy site - although it listed sales - did not give the actual selling price. For instance - recent sales of 776 O'Shea and 842 Marine in Gibsons only gave the asking prices. I can't imagine that anyone would pay the asking prices for these wildly over-valued items. The O'Shea shouldn't be worth more than 350K even at the top and the derelict property at 842 Marine could not have any "house" value, let alone a 2 mil tag. I know that real-estate sales on Sunshine Coast are mostly reflex buys (I like it, therefore I'll buy it, even if at costs the moon.)
I do think that you have done a lot of good work on other threads - esp. the "3 Amigos". Do some of your references give the allocation breakdown for property value, or is that still a subjective figure?
Speaking of Sandy Bellamy - isn't she the realtor for Gibson's most wildly over-valued property - 754 Wynn Rd. Even for Gibsons, this one can't be worth more than 750K and it's asking 1.25 mil (or more!)
Re: Ozzie Jurock. Didn't you know that "Jurock" is anti-semitic? From now on he should be referred to as Ozzie Gyproc (right material, and hey, who cares about Gypsies?)
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08-31-2013, 04:49 PM,
#14
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
Hey punnoval,

Thanks for the post.

Actually Joni & Gail prepared excellent weekly reports that included all the SC and listed what the property actually sold for. However, sad to say,they stopped preparing their reports mid-June and with their recent website revamp have removed all their past reports. They had also provided an historical sales report and it was that I so desperately appreciated getting my hands on.

True, Sandy doesn't offer the actual selling price but her reports do help me anticipate how monthly sales are going - at least in those three market areas. Yes, she is stuck with that Wynn Rd property. For fun, one day I checked BC Assessment info on that property and all its neighbours are assessed at half the value of 754. Whoever owns that property made a critical error in building amongst such lower assessed properties (relative to 754). Personally, I don't think 754 will ever sell - at least not until the neighbouring homes are torn down and McMansions put in their place. Nope, 754 is S-O-L.

It is great to learn you have found my postings a good read. The '3 Amigos' info was a revelation to me and I wrote it for others like myself who had no idea what the three methods of reporting RE sales entailed. Believe me, it was a slog putting that post together. Tongue

Cheers,
Skook
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08-31-2013, 05:02 PM,
#15
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
(08-31-2013, 04:49 PM)Skook Wrote: Hey punnoval,

Thanks for the post.

Actually Joni & Gail prepared excellent weekly reports that included all the SC and listed what the property actually sold for. However, sad to say,they stopped preparing their reports mid-June and with their recent website revamp have removed all their past reports. They had also provided an historical sales report and it was that I so desperately appreciated getting my hands on.

True, Sandy doesn't offer the actual selling price but her reports do help me anticipate how monthly sales are going - at least in those three market areas. Yes, she is stuck with that Wynn Rd property. For fun, one day I checked BC Assessment info on that property and all its neighbours are assessed at half the value of 754. Whoever owns that property made a critical error in building amongst such lower assessed properties (relative to 754). Personally, I don't think 754 will ever sell - at least not until the neighbouring homes are torn down and McMansions put in their place. Nope, 754 is S-O-L.

It is great to learn you have found my postings a good read. The '3 Amigos' info was a revelation to me and I wrote it for others like myself who had no idea what the three methods of reporting RE sales entailed. Believe me, it was a slog putting that post together. Tongue

Cheers,
Skook
Hey skook:

Thanks for your quick reply. I have been following SC prices on Gary Little's site. He also had 3 years worth of sales data but it got taken off - he claimed that the real estate board forced him to do so. Maybe the same happened to Joni & the Brachat?

By the way, they were the realtors for my fave Sechelt property - 5788 Binnacle. If you think 754 Wynn will never sell, what about it?

Also note that Gibson's "Liberace mansion" has been reduced by 20%. Can't see why anyone would want it though as you can but much better ones in El Lay for under 3 mil.

cheers,
punz
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08-31-2013, 05:48 PM,
#16
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
Quote:I have been following SC prices on Gary Little's site. He also had 3 years worth of sales data but it got taken off - he claimed that the real estate board forced him to do so

Yes, I miss that data, too - sure had some fun with it...LOL, It is quite possible there was pressure - probably because of my posts here and the fact I admitted he was my source - poor, dumb Skook Rolleyes I noticed at the time it was removed so were the links to the lower mainland RE data. They cut their data connections to Little, I guess.

Quote:Maybe the same happened to Joni & the Brachat?
I don't think so...business is slow on the coast so I have a feeling they have cut back their office assistant's hours.

Quote:By the way, they were the realtors for my fave Sechelt property - 5788 Binnacle. If you think 754 Wynn will never sell, what about it?
I take it you are being facetious right? Looks like the listing has been dropped, although it is still showing up on this lower mainland foreclosure website. I think the property showed up in a Vancouver Price Drop post, too...sorry, no time to check.

Quote:Also note that Gibson's "Liberace mansion" has been reduced by 20%. Can't see why anyone would want it though as you can but much better ones in El Lay for under 3 mil.
Yeah, laughed when I saw Sotheby's new listing pics - night shots with all the lights on...yep, that should sell that sucker.

Skook

PS check your private message mailbox here, punz. I have sent you a gift.
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09-02-2013, 01:28 PM, (This post was last modified: 09-04-2013, 10:44 AM by Skook.)
#17
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
August 2013 SC Sales Data

Up until this month, I have been posting Sunshine Coast monthly sales data without a truly clear understanding of what these various sales reporting methods entailed particularly for the Sunshine Coast. So, in the last weeks of July, I decided to sit down and take a close look at Average Sales Price, Median Sales Price and Benchmark Price - the latter via the MLS Home Price Index. I decided it was worth sharing what I learned and posted the new thread ‘Interpreting Sunshine Coast Real Estate Sales - The 3 Amigos’ last week. I would encourage anyone in the same boat as me to take a look at that thread and for those who have a good understanding of the ‘3 Amigos’ you still might find the graphs interesting.

Now, in the last post of the ‘3 Amigos’ thread, I quoted from a Garth Turner blog post. I would like to add that quote to this post, too, before you look at the SC August stats.

On May 29, 2013, in his blog post, ‘The Day it Died', Turner introduced readers to Greater Toronto Area Realtor, Ross Kay. Turner quoted from an email he had received from Kay…

Quote:On May 19th, 2013 we recorded the lowest value of Canadian consumer engagement in real estate since 2010. What is scary here is that on April 8th 2012, we reached an all time high engagement value. The May 19th numbers for 2013 represent about a 72% decline over that peak number. This massive decline raises grave concerns not being reported in newspapers across the country.

So we project 60 to 90 days from May 19th that MLS sales will be reported that will reveal the market died on May 19th. Our numbers have not been wrong since 2008. So as it turns out the peak of the real estate market in Canada was April 8th 2012, as posted here on Greater Fool. Peak pricing was established and as recorded MLS sales prices now show, anyone who bought in competition around that date paid too much.

Here is what Ross Kay wrote on his own website on May 29, 2013…

Quote:For the first time, since 2008, RossKay.com is going live publicly with it's industry leading Real Estate Sales Trends Index because of the drastic downward trends it has recorded since April 8th, 2013. Over the course of the last 9 weeks, our index has revealed a downward spiraling real estate marketplace, with results that will not reveal themselves in MLS sales data for another 60 to 90 days, when they will finally be reported by Organized Real Estate Associations. (For Reference on March 6th, 2013, we projected a 7.7% decrease in sales volumes to be reported on national MLS sales numbers for May 1st. Since our index only projects trends the official drop of 6.2% recorded by MLS sales nationally, was indicative of the trend we stated. Our Index was the only index value in Canada to statistically project this trend.)

The radical drop in index value calculated for May 19 and again on May 26th shows a 37.22% drop and 39.11% drop over respective weekly values calculated in 2012. This drop has historical significance, as this represents the largest plus or minus percentage change, year over year, ever recorded by the index. To date 2013 respective weekly values have been lower than not only 2012 but also 2011 and have been increasing in decline week over week.

After reaching an all time Peak Index Value of 806 on April 1st 2012, the index was off 22.33% for the same Sunday in 2013 and the decline in index value has been steadily recorded.

What should the Consumer do?
First the trends our index reveals is just that a trend. We do not expect a decline of 37% to 40%, 60 to 90 days from today's date but we do expect when sales are finally reported massive drops in sales volume will be recorded.

For Sellers,
As we have been advising our own clients since April of 2012, Sell and Sell Now.

For Buyers,
As we have been advising our own clients since April 2011, wait.

Here are the Sunshine Coast August total sales figures….

[Image: attachment.php?aid=376]

Here are the August residential sales figure breakdown by area and type with year-to-date comparisons…

[Image: attachment.php?aid=377]

The August ‘Average Sales Price’ and ‘Median Sales Price’ info is next; however, I would like to issue two warnings regarding the ASP data:

1) As I mention in the ‘3 Amigos’ thread, the average sales price info for the Sunshine Coast includes the sale of million dollar plus single detached homes and in August a property sold for just over $1,700,000 - if you removed that property, the average sales price for single detached home sales would drop to $435,035.

2) My source for these monthly reports has been SC Realtor Gary Little’s Stats page (http://www.garylittle.ca/stats.html). I really appreciate the work he does putting his together and for making it available for the public. However, this month I found a mistake and the ‘Average Detached Sales Price’ is wrong. I discovered the error when I was recalculating the ASP without that million dollar home sale.

When the REBGV releases its August Stats Package this week, I plan to sit down and look at the ‘3 Amigos’ in relation to the August sales figures and I will explain then how I found that error.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=378]

This month I also plan to present the August Benchmark Price data (is in REBGV stats package) and will add it to this post hopefully by the end of the week.

Sept 4, 2013 Update:

Here is the August Home Price Index and Benchmark Price Data. The Benchmark Price dropped to $334,800 from July's $338,800 - the Benchmark is now down -22.5% from the all-time peak reached July, 2010 ($432,224). The HPI dropped a further 1.4 points to 117.3 from July's 118.7. Both the Benchmark Price and HPI indicate the price of 'typical' home on the Sunshine Coast continues to fall in value. For a more detailed explanation of the HPI and Benchmark Price, please see my post ‘Interpreting Sunshine Coast Real Estate Sales - The 3 Amigos’.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=385]

I will upload the REBGV Charts has soon as they become available.


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09-12-2013, 01:58 PM, (This post was last modified: 09-12-2013, 02:00 PM by Skook.)
#18
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
Here are the REBGV Sunshine Coast charts for August, 2013:

[Image: attachment.php?aid=399]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=400]


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10-01-2013, 12:30 PM, (This post was last modified: 10-03-2013, 09:32 AM by Skook.)
#19
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
Sept 2013 SC Sales Stats:

I can hardly wait for the REBGV to release its September Stats Package and then to read the media reports that follow. Yep, they will be falling over each other as they hunt for superlatives to describe the numbers. It should be quite a show.

So, here is what happened on the Sunshine Coast. Right off the top, let’s get one fact out of the way - September 2013 sales were up 29.5% (+29.5%) from September 2012. Of course, this is what will be emphasized on the coast, at the board and in the media. We won’t hear that the increase was only 7.5% (+7.5%) from the month before (August, 2013). We also won’t hear that the Year-to-Date sales for 2013 (477) are down 6.1% (-6.1%) from Year-to-Date 2012 (508).

From what I have read, September was the last month that buyers could take advantage of any locked-in lower mortgage rates. So, all eyes will now be on what happens in October and the rest of the year.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=450]

Next are the sales by area info. Gibsons finally has something to cheer about as it led total sales (all types combined) on the SC for September. However, if you look at the Year-to-Date comparisons between 2013 and 2012, you will see that its sales still remain in negative territory as does Sechelt’s and Halfmoon Bay’s. Of course, Halfmoon Bay is tanking because $mill+ homes sales have all but disappeared. Despite the Roberts Creek positive YTD total, the area had no September sales.

The Single Detached Home sales tables are interesting. Look at the YTD 2013, 2012, and 2011 totals for Sechelt - there are all the same! What are the odds of that happening three years in a row? Amazing.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=451]

Next, we have the September Average Sale Price for Detached and Attached - up for one and down for the other. Of course, these figures are completely valueless as I mentioned in the previous month. This month’s detached average sales price is distorted because it includes a $1,625,000 single detached home sale in the Gibsons area in September. A more accurate sales figure to use would be the Median Sales Price which actually dropped compared to August (see below). However, I will look forward to seeing September’s Benchmark Price which I will post as soon as the REBGV releases its data.

I am also including a new table this month which shows the ‘Median Discount from Original Sales’ figures. Keep in mind, this is the ‘median’ percentage change from the original price, so we have no idea how high or how low the discounts were to help push up those September sales. You can bet there were some good discounts given.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=452]

I thought you might find the following interesting. For the last few months when I go to check the active listings, I have been applying a filter to see what has occurred over the previous day and the result gives me any new listings and price changes; and, price changes far outnumber the new listings. Here is what I saw today - there was only one new listing (a $mill+ plus home which I’m not showing- good luck to them, by the way) and all these price changes. Now, if sales were as fantastic as the September stats will be made out to be by the RE Boards and in the media, would I be seeing this? Remember, this is only one day!

[Image: attachment.php?aid=449]

Note: I post Sept sales data for $mill+ single detached homes separately in the thread ‘Sunshine Coast’s Million Dollar Babies’. I will add the Benchmark Prices as soon as it is available in a few days and the REBGV September charts in 10 days or so.

Update: Oops, I just noticed that Tranquility Island listing directly above was a price increase...LOL. Increases are rare, but they do happen. Well, we promise not to take it seriously because no one else will. Back again, I just went and checked the 2013 Assessment and at the new price increase the seller expects to be handed a +226% Asking Price Premium. In other words, the Assessment is less than a 1/3 the asking price. Go for it, maybe there is a greater fool out there. Oh, and did you notice it has been listed for 587 days. Yep, that price increase should really move that piece of rock now.

October 3, 2013 Update:

Here is the HPI and Benchmark Price info from the REBGV stats package; both figures rose in September. I think I might be getting a better idea of how these figures work - I say "might" and I will only know if I am on the right track when I can look at the REBGV September charts (available in a week or so).

In the meantime here is what Calgary Realtor, Mike Fotiou, posted on his blog today:

Quote:Remember, the HPI is for general price trends in each housing category while the Benchmark Price is just for the ‘typical’ home in that community...

I keep turning to him because he seems to be the only one regularly attempting to explain these statistical numbers.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=460]


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10-09-2013, 01:46 PM, (This post was last modified: 10-09-2013, 01:48 PM by Skook.)
#20
RE: SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013
Here are the REBGV September, 2013 sales charts for the Sunshine Coast.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=487]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=488]


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