SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013

[Skook]

SC October Sales Update:

We all know by now what a truly glorious month September was for real estate sales in Canada. Why so stellar? Because, those sales were being compared to September, 2012 - a pitiful month within a pitiful year for the majority of boards across the country.

The Sunshine Coast even though a small market followed this national trend reporting total sales of 57 compared to 44 in September, 2012 with 41 single detached homes sales versus 31. Now, it just so happens that October, 2012 made up for the lacklustre sales the month before as you can see in the small tables below. To equal last October’s sales, the SC will need a total of 46 detached sales and an overall total of 64 sales.

   

Here then above are the current RE sales for October 1 - 15. With 16 days left in the month, the SC needs a further 27 single detached home sales and a further 39 sales overall. We will be looking forward to the end of month tally especially if the majority of pre-approved lower rate mortgages have now expired.

[punnoval]

I think that a key piece of data that is missing here is the number of sales that are "cash only". If the percentage of sales is large then there should be little "carry forward" effect. I would think that most of the detached sales would be all cash - especially over 500K.

By the way, I almost dumped in my drawers today when I saw a sold sign on 754 Wynn. I just can't imagine anyone paying near the asking price for that thing. Of course, I am ignoring the "patient seller" philosophy still in existence in sunny Gisbons: "If you wait long enough, you needn't reduce your price, as a mark will surely show up". Sandy must now be able to go to Vegas and play the slots for weeks.

As an aside, do you know what's going on with these two "properties"?:

V1030655 - 571 N. Fletcher. This one was sold about a year ago for somewhat less than the present asking price. There has been little improvement made. Is this a joke?

V1031177 - 1208 Orange Rd. I believe that they tried to sell this thing about a year ago. Was it successful?

[Skook]

punnoval, you always raise such interesting questions in your posts...I only wish I had the answers......LOL. There are a few of your previous posts that I want to respond to and hope to do so when I can.

As for this post, I really don't know if "cash only" sales have an impact on sale stats and what percentage they make up. Perhaps, there is someone else reading this who could respond. Honestly, punnoval, I am not in the real estate business. I am just a pleb who happens to be pretty good at internet research.

So, the Wynn property sold, eh? Well, I doubt very much they got their asking price because the buyer will need to spend a potful to repaint all the black and dark grey walls. I wonder if the buyers worked through their own Realtor - I sure hope so because they should have done a search on assessment values for nearby properties to truly understand what they were buying into. Keep your eye on any available Market Reports that may be posted, soon.

I looked at the listing for V1030655 - and judging by the listing pics I can't image any improvements were needed - it's a sweet little property. It's hard to say why they are flipping it - could be a situation beyond their control such as health, finances, job, etc.

Can't offer any answers for V103117. I only began my SC research early this year. Here's a suggestion, does the library keep back copies of the Sunshine Coast Real Estate Guide? You might want to check that out and go through last year's editions - Realtors love to put in pics of "Sold" properties, too. Also, the library will have back copies of the Coast Report which includes those bi-weekly real estate sections - again, often including "Sold" property pics. Check with friends and neighbours - maybe they have back issues of the SC Real Estate Guide. All thoughts that may help with your questions.

[Skook]

Speaking of the Coast Reporter's bi-weekly real estate insert (see post above), it included an excellent end of September wrap-up of the Sunshine Coast real estate market in the October 11, 2013 edition. I have already used its land listing supply data for a post in another thread. I am going to post the entire piece here and commend the Realtor responsible for being so honest with the facts thus giving us a clear picture of the health of real estate on the SC.

Quote:September, 2013 Market Update
SC Realtor Kenan MacKenzie, Prudential Sussex Realty

Sunshine Coast Detached Listings:
There are 672 current detached listings in the same period last year we had 675 detached listings. Detached sales ending September 30 total 367, in 2012 there were 382 sales and in 2011 there were 379 sales. The current market’s hot price range is below $400,000, with more than half the sales occurring in this price range. With the current pace of sales this represents a 16-month supply of listings; we have one more month of supply over 2012.

Sunshine Coast Attached Listings:
There are 139 current attached listings this is up slightly over 2012 when in the same period we had 163 attached listings. Attached sales ending September 30 total 70, in 2012 there were 75 sales and in 2011 there were 84 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents a 18-month supply of listings. Attached listings represent strata unit apartments, condos and townhouses. Attached sales are down slightly over the previous year

Sunshine Coast Land Listing:
There are 436 bare land listing this is down slightly from 2012 when we had 453 listings. Land sales ending September 30 total 45 sales, in 2012 there were 49 sales and in 2011 there were 66 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents an 87-month supply.

September overall was rather flat. We can see by the stats that to date 2013 all sales are down. The market for detached sales has been fairly consistent over the last three years down slightly by 13 sales from 2011; attached sales are down 14 sales from 2011; and, in raw land sales are down by 21 sales almost a third from 2011.

• $000 to $300,000 with 92 sales
  
• $301,000 to $400,000 with 114 sales
  
• $401,000 to $500,000 with 66 sales
  
• $501,000 to $600,000 with 39 sales
  
• $601,000 to $700,000 with 20 sales
  
• $701,000 to $ 800,000 with 14 sales
  
• $801,000 to $900,000 with six sales
  
• $901,000 to $1,000,000 with three sales
  
• Over $1,001,000 with 13 sales
  

We are starting to see the seasonal adjustments of our inventory. Across the board our listings inventory fell during the month of September. I would like to say this is due to sales but it is property owners taking their homes and property off the market for the winter. Only to return and try again in the spring with the return of daffodils so will be the real estate signs. The thing is we have buyers who look all year round and the seller who braves the winter will have less competition.

So, based on Mr. MacKenzie's single detached home sales data, 2013 sales to date (367) are 3.9% (-3.9%) lower than the same period in 2012 (382). This is a significant drop if we are to believe that 2012 sales were as bad as the media leads us to believe.

I will be looking forward to reading Mr. MacKenzie's next 'Real Estate Reflections' in November. Here's hoping he isn't ostracized for being a 'lone wolf' in presenting the honest facts to us all.

[Skook]

October 29, 2013 Update:

As the end of the month approaches, here is a look at SC sales up to and including October 23rd. In Post #21 above, I said it would be interesting to see how October fares compared to October 2012. Again, I have included the sales total for that month on the left below.

The totals sales up to the 23rd stand at 41 which means another 23 sales are needed by the end of October to match last year’s number. There have been 30 single detached home sales up to the 23rd; however, 5 of those sales have been Mobile Home sales (MOP). The SC will need another 19 detached homes sales to match last year’s number of 44. Looking at the “Sold” prices so far for October, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Benchmark price drop compared to last month which had risen slightly compared to August.

A property in Egmont sold this past week which I have been keeping an eye on over the past two years since I knew the owner. This property made the Vancouver Price Drop September 30th list (image below). However, what the VPD data didn’t show was that this property had actually been originally listed back in early 2011 at $999,900. It was relisted in November 2011 at $899,000. It sold last week for $570,000 - a drop of 43% (-43%) from that original price.

[Skook]

October 2013 Sales

September was such an uplifting month with its 29.5% increase over September, 2012 sales that I almost feel guilty posting October’s results. Yes, they’re negative compared to both October, 2012 (-14.1%) and September, 2013 (-3.5%). Well, what can one say, but “what interest rates giveth, interest rates taketh away.”

Here are October’s sales results by type for the five areas of the SC and the Year-to-Date total for both 2013 and 2012 followed by the results for Single Detached Home sales only (Note: I do not include mobile home sales - MOP - which explains the discrepancy between my Detached Home Sales totals and the detached sales figures given by SC Realtor Kenan MacKenzie in his September summary posted above).

The October’s Average Sales Price figure decreased for Detached homes sales but rose for Attached and the latter can be explained by the five sales that occurred this month at the pricey Watermark condo complex in Sechelt.

I will add the REBGV HPI and Benchmark Price data and charts as soon as they become available.

[Skook]

SC October HPI & Benchmark Price Data

I have finally pulled together the October HPI and Benchmark price data for the Sunshine Coast. Both figures rose in September and October, and darn if I know why unless it has to do with the value of the homes selling in those months. I am still waiting for my source to post October’s REBGV charts which will give me the table showing the breakdown of sales by price. I'm hoping to find a day to sit down and stare at that table for a while to see if I can find a relationship or think of anything that will make sense of all this. I am such an optimist.

Oops, found a mistake on my graph...I'll be back

Okay, let's try this, again. When I was editing the image position I noticed a significant error in my Benchmark price chart. I had the July, 2010 Peak correct but I had used the July, 2011 Price…duh! What this means is that the drop from Peak is steeper than what I indicated in August and September. The drop from Peak in August should be -26.9% and in September -25.6%.

I will have to correct those previous months’ charts and repost them (I noticed I didn’t update the chart titles either - I am going to have to fire all my proofreaders).

[Skook]

I finally got hold of the REBGV October Sales Charts for the Sunshine Coast. So, this post will complete the sales data for the month.

[Skook]

November 29, 2013 Update:

With only two days left in the month, here are the SC sales figures for November from the 1st to 20th. There were only 16 single detached home sales over the whole coast during that time span and one was a mobile home. In total (all types), there were 25 sales. In November 2012, there were 31 single detached home sales (included two mobile homes) and the overall totals sales figure was 42. That last figure was the third worst sales total for the SC in 2012. I wonder if sales this November will even come close.

December 3, 2013 update:

Here is how sales fared on the SC from November 21st to 27th.

The total single detached home sales for November 1st to 27th = 25
The total sales for all types for November 1st to 27th = 34

Will the SC match or exceed November 2012 sales?

[Skook]

December 3, 2013

For the first time since I began posting Sunshine Coast stats, November’s sales totals are so far unavailable from SC source, Gary Little. He has always had the stats up on his website on the first day of the month, but not this month. Here's hoping he's just gone off on holidays. So, I will be waiting for the REBGV November stats package and will pull what I can from that.

In the meantime, I have posted the sales result for the last week of November in the post above. This gives us some idea of what we can expect.