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2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
11-28-2015, 12:22 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-28-2015, 03:55 PM by Skook.)
#11
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
August - September 2015 SC Sales Stats

Holy Crap, I am so stupidly behind in my stats posts that it is just...well...stupid. So, I’m not going to be elaborating much in this post. A few August stats are posted directly above which you might want to review and directly below are September’s results which saw a nice increase in detached and attached sales after the August holidays. Total sales were up +23% versus August and +29% year-over-year and versus September 2013 sales rose +39%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1195]

I’ll let you wade through the residential sales by area below. What is of note are the year-to-date sales stats which show all five market areas on the coast are having a great year compared to 2014 which in itself was a good year compared to 2013. September’s total residential sales stood at 785 – that’s up +38% compared to 2014 and +67% versus 2013.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1196]

Note: I have highlighted Sechelt’s September’s year-to-date total as a note to myself because it differs from Realtor® Gary Little’s total by 3. It’s just something for me to keep an eye on.

Single Detached Home Sales

The historical detached sales figures are interesting. This REBGV data and includes single detached homes and manufactured homes on pads. August was the best year since 2007, but September...well, you have to reach back to 2004 to better those 77 sales. It used to be a given that once the kids went back to school real estate sales slumped, but not this year and not during those wild and wooly boom years of from 2002-2006. So, what do you think the insanity has returned? Is speculation running amok once again?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1197]

Detached Sales by Price Range

The REBGV’s large yellow table breaks down August sales by price range and type. Note that “other” represents land sales. I’ve separated out the million dollar property sales in the smaller tables and chart below. The $300,000-$399,999 continues to be the most popular price range representing 33.9% of year-to-date sales.

   
(click on image)

Now, something happened in September at the REBGV – the board updated its software and it screwed up September’s sales stats. You can see the affect in the image below. When the board releases its monthly sales by price range table, it is in fact a year-to-date sales table. So, every month I sit down and subtract the previous month sales to determine what sales have actually occurred in the current month. You can see how I do that in the image on the right. I have my August YTD totals on the far right and I subtract each total from its counterpart in the REBGV table on the far left. You can see the results I got on the left side of the white table – all those negative numbers and that number 4 told be the results were questionable to say the least; so, I threw them out the window.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1200]


I had to turn to plan B and count all the sales on my own. This is one reason why I got behind in my stats since it was a long, tedious job but I had to do it or I wouldn’t be able to do anything with October’s numbers when they were released. My September Sales-By-Price results are below.

   
(click on image)

Detached Median Sales Price

Just a reminder that in my table and corresponding chart directly below (green) all “$1mill+” single detached property sales have been removed from the calculation. I do include MOP sales. You can compare my results with SC Realtor® Gary Little in the table and chart below mine. He does include “$1mill+” detached sales but removes MOP sales. As I stated in earlier posts, those million dollar property sales distort the results upwards and therefore aren’t a true reflection of the overall market property sales. I believe my data helps explain why we are still seeing price drops on the coast – home owners aren’t pricing their properties correctly. That being said the trendline in both tables tells us that the tide has turned and that home prices should be rising especially as inventory dries up and it has - dramatically.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1202]

HPI and Benchmark Price

The REBGV made a change to its HPI index back in 2012 which is why that table begins Jan 2012. We see that the HPI is now at its highest point since that change. As for the Benchmark Price, I wanted to show the last peak on the SC which is why that data stretches back to Jan 2010. The SC has a long way to go before it matches that May 2010 peak price. September’s Benchmark of $383,100 is -16.3% below peak. The August Benchmark at $424,800 was -17.5% below peak.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1203]

Sales to List Ratio

Realtors®, market analysts, and real estate boards use a sales-to-list ratio to determine if market conditions are pointing towards a ‘buyer’s market, a balanced market or a seller’s market. The REBGV calculates this for us on its ‘MLS® Listings Facts’ page in its monthly stats package. I created the tables and chart below based on that data. Now, what is significant is that the board is using each month’s “new” active listings to calculate that ratio percentage figure (monthly sales ÷ new listings = % sales-to-listings ratio). Now, my chart does reflect what happened historically on the coast: the market took off between the years 2002 to 2006 and then crashed late 2007 and remained suppressed until late 2013.

As you can see as of the end of September, the year-to-date % sales ratio stands at 59% and according to the REBGV we technically enter a “seller’s” market when the ratio hits 55-60%. I generously placed the red line at 55% in my chart. The chart is reflecting the current situation on the SC of rising sales and falling new listings each month particularly over these last few months. So, if we are now entering a seller’s house prices should definitely start to rise.

But, is this reality? I will offer another option after the chart.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1204]

So, the REBGV make the above data available to the media and public each and every month. However, in the covering letter included with September’s data the board uses a completely different sales-to-list ratio to describe its market area conditions (and the SC is part of REBGV). Here’s what the board wrote:

Quote:The sales-to-active-listings ratio in September was 31 per cent.

Hello? The board gave the SC a sales-to-list ratio of 108% at the end of September; so, how can one of the hottest markets in the world have a ratio of only 31%? The keyword in that quote is “active”. The board isn’t using the monthly new listings in its calculation but the total active listings as they existed for September (I’m not sure if that is an average of September’s active listings or the active listings on the last day of the month).

I had never come across this calculation applied to the SC in all my searches until The Robinson Group posted a July SC Sales summary report on their Facebook page. You can see that July summary above in my August 8 post (scroll back or click here).

So using sales and total active listings, The Robinson Group showed these sales-to-active listings ratios:

June – 18%
July – 15%
August – 11.4% (Sales: 62. Active Listings: 548)

(TRG did release an August summary and you can check it out on their September 8th Facebook page post.)

Now returning to the REBGV’s September stats cover letter, the board states:

Quote:Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio declines below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches 20 per cent, or higher, in a particular community for a sustained period of time.

Now, that SC ratio fell in July and August but that is holiday time on the west coast. So what happened in September? Sadly, The Robinson Group didn’t release a report and I think it was due to either that REBGV software update I eluded to earlier that screwed up September’s sales data but I could be wrong since they didn’t release a summary for October either – at least not to their Facebook page.

So, I did my own calculation but I stress my total active listings is an average based on Realtor Gary Little’s real estate map listings each day. September began with 538 detached listings and ended with 491 and the average was 513.

SC September Sales-to-Active Listings ratio = 77 ÷ 533 x 100 = 14.4%

If I use the number of active listings on the last day of the month, I get:

77 ÷ 511 x 100 = 15.1%

In either example, the ratio is moving up but is still below the 20% mark that if sustained would lead to rising prices. It’s also well July’s 18%. At best, you have to describe the SC real estate market as “balanced” which my chart above shows we’ve all but kissed goodbye.

So, what’s going to happen in October? Any bets?


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11-28-2015, 02:17 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-28-2015, 02:20 PM by Skook.)
#12
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
August 2015 Sales to Active Listings Ratio

I decided I would post the line chart included in the SC August 2015 Summary posted by The Robinson Group on September 8th to their Facebook page.

So, as I mentioned in my post above, the sales to active listings ratios for single detached home sales are:

June = 18%
July = 15%
August = 11.4%

You can see how each figure plays out in relation to the three market scenarios: Buyer’s, Balanced or Seller’s.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1205]

Again, my calculation for September shows a ratio of either 13.8% or 15.7% depending on what Active Listing total was used.


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11-29-2015, 01:51 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-29-2015, 02:22 PM by Skook.)
#13
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
October 2015 SC Sales Stats

Sales dropped a tad in October but then everyone was fixated on the federal election, no doubt. You gotta love those ‘strategic’ voting results, eh? So, detached sales dipped, attached sales head steady and land sales gathered steam. Year-over-year land sales made everyone giggle hysterically - up +157% - with detached and attached up a tad, too.

Speaking of attached sales, those year-to-date totals take your breath away, too. After languishing three or more years, townhouse sale are soaring due to a simple reason – they’re dirt cheap! Yep, bargains hunters are having a field day. Total attached sales are up +42% year-over-year.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1206]

Residential Sales By Area

Once again, I will leave you to peruse the res sales (all types) by area data. Year-to-date totals have Gibsons thumbing its collective nose at Sechelt with its sales up +39% versus 2014. Total year-to-date sales stand at roughly 877 up +36% compared to 2014.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1207]

Single Detached Home Sales

October 2015 a definitely one for the record books – best October detached sales (SDH+MOP) since 2003. On a year-over-year basis Gibsons and Pender Harbour were in the green with Gibsons actually doubling last October’s total. Year-to-date total detached sales stand at roughly 621 - up +26% over 2014.

The SDH median sales price jumped in October due to sales in the higher price ranges ($400,000 - $699,999) and why not since money is cheap (but may not be for long).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1208]

Note: the median sales price is my calculation. I remove all ‘1mill+’ detached property sales and include MOP (manufactured on pad) sales. I decided not to include SC Realtor ® Gary Little’s median sales price data this month. If you want to compare (he includes $1mill+ properties and removes MOP), you can visit his stats page.

Sales By Price Range

As a mentioned above, the SDH median sales price jumped this month and the sales by price range table shows why. There were 17 home sales in the $400,000 to $499,000 and 13 in the $500,000 - $599,999 range. Percentage–wise, the $300,000 - $399,999 pie slice is getting smaller.

   
(click on image)

Single Detached HPI & Benchmark Prices

So, the median sales price rose this month reflecting the fact homes in the higher price ranges were selling and yet, the HPI and Benchmark price dropped. Go figure. Is this reflecting that small drop in detached sales since last month? (15 fewer SDH sales and 1 fewer MOP sale). Actually, I’m thinking it might reflect the type of home sold – if inventory is dropping then it might be the older homes getting picked up. Here’s what the MLS ® Home Price Index Realtors ® Guide says:

Quote:The MLS® HPI benchmark prices represent the price of a typical property within each market. The MLS® HPI takes into consideration what averages and medians do not – items such as lot size, age, number of rooms, etc. The most commonly traded set of these attributes describes the composite of the typical or ‘benchmark’ house in a given area. Prices paid for homes with these attributes determine benchmark home prices.

For example, perhaps the basket of features for a typical home in a community includes a 10-year-old, three-bedroom house on a 7,200 square-foot lot, with eight rooms, two bathrooms, a fireplace and a one-car garage. The MLS® HPI creates a benchmark price for the typical home by calculating the contribution that each of these features makes to the price paid.

Average and median prices are affected by the composition of properties sold (e.g. the types of homes by age, area and home type), which changes from month to month. The benchmark price overcomes this issue by keeping the qualities of a typical property constant over time, so its change in value is the result of pure price change (home price inflation or deflation).

Yada, yada, yada – we all know it will likely go up next month and therefore makes no sense for us plebs. Anyways, I was surprised to see that little dip.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1210]


Sales to List Ratios

By now if you’ve been reading my reports since August, you will know there are two types of ‘Sales-to-list‘ ratios used by the REBGV. The sales-to-new listing’ ratio used in its monthly stats package calculations (MLS Listings page) and the ‘sales-to-active listings’ ratio used in the monthly stats package cover letter.

Sales to New Listings Ratio

As you see, on a monthly basis the ratio dropped a tad in October reflecting the similar sales/listing figures – both of which were lower than September’s figures. That being said, the year-to-date totals moved the SC into a “Seller’s Market” for the first time in 8 years which is nicely illustrated in my extraordinarily beautiful chart.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1211]

Sales to Active Listings Ratio

Unfortunately, I haven’t an extraordinarily beautiful chart to illustrate this ratio – you’ll have to scroll back to a preceding post for the board's ho-hum version. So, using my “iffy” daily listings figures for October, I get the following results...

Using an October active listing average: 61 ÷ 469 = 13.3%

Using October’s last day listing: 61 ÷ 439 = 13.9%

In either case, these results tell us that in October the SC single detached home resale market was “balanced” – according to the REGBV and its sales-to-active listing’ ratio. Sure...

REBGV Sunshine Coast Charts

I’ll wrap up this post with the board’s SC charts which I haven’t posted in some time. Right off the top, we can see the plunge in detached inventory (total active listings) compared to October 2014. We can see a similar situation in the attached chart. Detached median and average prices are moving up but it is important to remember the board includes ‘$1mill+’ property sales and those sales are up substantially this year (29 YTD in 2015 vs 14 YTD in 2014).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1212]

Right, the stats are caught up and my brain has gone to mush.


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11-29-2015, 05:10 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-30-2015, 08:08 AM by Skook.)
#14
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Teaser Alert!

It was a real challenge preparing these August to October stats not just because of the sheer volume of numbers and having to interpret the data which was a mind numbing, but also because of what I know about this month.

You see November results are going to blow your socks off. I have this month’s detached sales figures going back to 1998 and by Friday we had already surpassed the best year (2003) by almost a dozen sales. That margin could grow to near twenty if this pace continues up to and including Monday. This is going to be very interesting.
Reply
12-05-2015, 01:21 PM, (This post was last modified: 12-05-2015, 03:08 PM by Skook.)
#15
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
November 2015 SC Sales Stats

November sales are one for the record books. Year-over-year total sales jumped a stunning +94% and a mind boggling +146% compared to November 2013. I tell you within a certain price range if it’s not nailed down its moving!

As I mentioned in my teaser post above, my detached sales records go back to 1998 and November exceeded the previous high (63 sales in November 2003) by 11 sales. I’m not certain if a total sales record for the month was set since I haven’t those records – possibly not since land sales from 2003-2005 went through the roof.

Back to this month, detached sales up +21% from last month, attached sales +8%, MOP sales +33% with only land sales taken a breather and dropping by 5 but still coming in at a respectable 13 sales. But, year-over-year, those November land sales jumped +160%.

Attached sales keep rolling along up +42% year-to-date compared to 2014 and +71% versus 2013. There were some interesting sales taking place. When you see multiple units selling on the same day in the same development, something’s up and I’ll go in to more detail about this when I post development updates in the weeks ahead.

So, overall, we see that 2015 sales have established a new plateau but the million dollar question is, “Will this continue into 2016?” Interest rate hikes are coming and those in the know are hinting that the new Trudeau government is pressuring CMHC to raise the minimum downpayment to 10% (it could be graduated) in January. We could see crazy sales in December to beat these anticipated increases.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1218]

Residential Sales by Area

Gibsons has zoomed past Sechelt over the last two months in the year-to-date sales race – it’s now up +44% versus 2014 with Sechelt up +36%. Compared to 2013, Gibsons sales jumped +69%, but Sechelt wins the bragging rights here with sales up a crazy +80% from two years ago.

Overall, total SC sales to date stands at roughly 978 an increase of +41% versus 2014 and +74% compared to 2013. Are we poised to set a new total year-end sales record? Nope. December would need 52 sales to tie 2007 (1030 sales) – which is doable. However, we would need 293 sales to match 2005’s record year of 1271 sales and that won’t happen unless we suddenly go totally bonkers this month and so far that isn’t happening.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1219]

Single Detached Home Sales

There’s those historical sales figures going back to 1998. The YOY table shows November’s sales up +100% to last year and a stunning +208% versus 2013. Are you feeling a little dizzy at these new heights? Year-to-date figures show equally impressive sales in all SC market areas compared to 2014 and 2013 is left way back in the dust.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1220]

The single detached median sales price took a significant dive compared to the month before and the reason can be seen in the ‘Sales by Price Range’ table below – 28 sales in the $300,000 - $399,999 price range. Just to mention again, I remove all ‘$1mill+’ property sales from my median sales price calculation and include MOP sales. The REBGV reports a November median sales price of $386,500 (single detached + MOP + ‘$1mill+’ sales) and SC Realtor® Gary Little offers up $397,000 (single detached + ‘$1mill+’ sales).

Sales By Price Range

Last month, I mentioned that the YTD % total for sales in the $300,000 - $399,999 was decreasing...well, those 28 sales pumped it up again by almost a full percentage point. Lordy, it would be so interesting to find out where the buyers are coming from. My thoughts are that there's a good number of locals and a whole bunch of lower mainlanders involved and they're all buying on spec. Just a gut feeling.

   
(click on image)

Single Detached HPI & Benchmark Prices

Let’s see...what did I write about the benchmark last month? Oh, right...

Quote:Yada, yada, yada – we all know it will likely go up next month and therefore makes no sense for us plebs.

That was profound (I amaze myself...Big Grin)...but it was prophetic because it went up. It now stands a mere -16.1% below the May 2012 peak price.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1222]


Sales to Listing Ratio

I’ve been having some fun with this ratio over the last few monthly stat reports now that I discovered the REBGV has a split personality in regards to this oft cited statistic. Each month, the board offers up the ‘Sales-to-New-Listings’ ratio on the MLS® Listings Facts page, but in the monthly cover letter the board talks about the ‘Sales-to-Active-Listings’ ratio. So, here’s the November scoop on both.

Sales to New Listings Ratio

I’ve been charting this data for the last couple of years and this month the ratio reached its highest level this year – +119%. As a result, on a YTD basis the ratio jumped three percentage points from October and now stands at +65% - so aptly illustrated with my extraordinarily beautiful chart. According to the REBGV, the SC is now in a “Seller’s Market”:

Quote:To measure market activity, the Real Estate Board has a unique tool - a sales-to-listings ratio which measures the balance between demand and supply:
  • a ratio of three sales for five listings means we are in a seller's market (also known as a ratio of 55 – 60%)
  • a ratio of less than seven sales for every 20 listings means we are in a buyer’s market (also known as a ratio of less than 35%)
(See ‘What’s the difference between a buyer’s and seller’s market?’ on the REBGV’s FAQ website page.)

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1223]

Sales to Active Listings Ratio

Now, we only have the board’s spoken word on this ratio unless you know a Realtor® who will enter a magic portal, gain access to terabytes of mysterious, privileged data and print you out a Sales Summary. Sometimes Realtors® will share this Summary with the public as the SC’s The Robinson Group did two months in a row (July and August) on their Facebook page. Yes, they have since stopped for reasons unknown unless it was just too privileged to share with one and all, or they felt it was confusing people to have two ratios, or they’re too busy setting sales records to enter the magic portal.

Therefore, I sat down today and prepared another extraordinarily beautiful chart to illustrate the ratio. I have used the REBGV detached sales figure and my own active listing data (to save time I used the listing data on the last day of the month – taking and using an average wouldn’t have made much of a difference in the long run).

So, with November’s high detached sales (single detached + MOP) and low month end active listings we get a ratio of +19.1% and what does that mean? Well, the board offers an explanation in its monthly cover letter:

Quote:Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio declines below the 12 per cent mark while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches 20 per cent, or higher, in a particular community for a sustained period of time.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1224]

So, according to the REBGV’s ‘Sale-to-Active-Listings’ Ratio on the monthly basis the Sunshine Coast went from a “Buyer’s” detached sales market in January to a “Balanced” market in June and after a brief backslide and recovery is poised to enter “Seller’s” market territory. If we take the YTD totals to calculate the ratio (694 ÷ 5744 x 100), we get +12.1% - barely balanced.

Looking back at the REBGV’s ‘Sales-to-New-Listings’ Ratio data, the small table for 2015 on the right shows the SC had a “Balanced” detached sales market for the first five months and entered into a “Seller’s” market in June and hasn’t looked back since. And, the YTD calculation has “Buyer’s” market written all over it.

So, what is it: Balanced or Buyer’s; and, why the two different ratios? Under what circumstances do you use one ratio versus the other? I’m confused and maybe the board is too.

That’s it for this month. I’m going to hold off on the REBGV charts and post them all again with December’s year end results.
It will be interesting to watch how the month unfolds. In the meantime, I’ll get busy preparing SC development updates as some are long overdue and most show very interesting results.


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01-17-2016, 02:59 PM,
#16
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Dear Skook,

You, sir, are amazing!

Have been unable to keep up-to-date w/your posts over last year or so until today. Myriad reasons of no consequence now.

I actually owe you an apology for not following up, or through, with a request you made of me regarding updates about The George Hotel development. Let's discuss this again offline at your convenience if still a need/interest.

Just finished reading your 2015 Sales Stats and, as I said to my husband, your knowledge, insights and number crunching is almost overwhelming for simple folk like us although so very appreciated and interesting. As an owner of 2 SFH's in/around Gibsons, so much data to chew on!

We too follow Mr. G. Turner -- have even spoken w/him directly although I was a bit put off by him as he was rather gruff, even pushy -- and laugh and learn daily with his blog (OK six days a week) along with the blog dog commentary. Like I learn from Garth, I learn from your posts too!

Anyway, just really wanted to applaud you for all your knowledge sharing -- so very impressive -- and apologize for not keeping in touch.

Have a great day, Skook and THANK YOU for your posts.
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