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2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
08-14-2015, 03:53 PM, (This post was last modified: 08-17-2015, 03:20 AM by Skook.)
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
June – July 2015 SC RE Sales Stats

Let’s begin with some “Real Estate Reflections” from SC Realtor® Kenan MacKenzie...

Quote:Market Update for July 31, 2015

Sales are up and listings are down

Sunshine Coast Detached listings
There are currently 572575 detached listings on the Sunshine Coast. This is way down from last year in which there were 762605 detached listings’ Detached sales year-to-date ending July 31, 2015: 407 344 sales, in 2014: 345290 sales; in 2013: 295 sales, and in 2012: 328 sales. The current market’s hot price range is between $301,000 and $400,000 with 130 sales occurring in this price range. With the current sales pace, this represents a 10 month supply of listings.

Whooeee, and you thought the Vancouver market was stupid hot. ROFLOL...the rest of the report carries on in the same vein; so, I’ll stop right here. Anyone picking up the Coast Report on August 7th must have thought they had died on gone to real estate heaven.

Well, my stat numbers aren’t as exciting as Kenan’s but they’ll still bring a smile to a local realtor’s face and maybe a home owner or two. Starting with the 2015 month to month breakdown we see June soared and fell back to earth a bit in July with the later drop more than likely due to holidays – buyers and Realtors ® traditionally seem to agree on a breather in July.

On a year-over-year basis, total June sales jumped ahead +46% and July up a whopping +73%. You gotta love those numbers. Once again, I’ve included year-to-date attached sales and on a year-over-year basis June was up +37% and July +57%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1158]

The table and chart below puts those total June and July sales into perspective. Since buyers seem determined not to let a drought and crappy local (peaking with loss of 171 full time jobs at Howe Sound Pulp and Paper), national, and international economic news deter them, at this pace we could see the best total yearly sales since 2007 (1030). Ooh Rah, to quote the US Marines...yes, sir, damn those torpedoes, full steam ahead!

Sechelt leads the five market areas in overall sales to date; however, given its population is less than half Sechelt’s, those Gibsons sales figures are quite extraordinary. On a year-to-date, year-over-year basis all five SC market areas are cooking with gas.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1159]

Now to everyone’s favourite stat – single detached home sales. The REBGV June total (DET+MOP) was the highest at 106 since 2005’s 107 sales. July’s total of 79 came close to tying 2007’s 80 sales.

(Note: I am using SC Realtor ® Gary Little’s July detached figures: 75+4MOP. The REBGV reported 81 sales in its monthly stats package and 82 DET sales in its ‘Sales By Price Range’ chart. Experience tends to show error in reporting occurs with the REBGV. We likely won’t know the correct figures until the end of the year, or by sometime next year, or maybe the year after that.)

You can wade through those detached sales figure by area and the year-to-date, year-over-year table (all markets in the green). Note though Gibsons almost tied Sechelt’s July detached sales (26 vs 27).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1160]

Detached Sales by Price Range

I will leave it up to you to look through the tables and charts. However, I will draw your attention to three items:

1. As I mentioned above, the REBGV in its July ‘Sales By Price Range’ table shows 82 detached sales and 81 detached sales in the monthy stats package. SC Realtor ® Gary Little shows 79 (75+4MOP) detached sales. Year-to-Date, the REGBV reports 426 detached sales and Gary Little 421 (400+21MOP). There was a discrepancy in April when the Board showed 60 detached sales and Little showed 57 – all other months the detached data has matched.

2. Back in May, the REGBV began reporting data in the “Other” column. I thought this might have been in error since the Board has never done so before; well, it’s continued into June and July and that data represents land sales. Year-to-date, the REBGV reports 82 land sales and Gary Little reports 77. Therefore, comparing overall year-to-date sales the Board gives us 426(DET)+102(ATT)+82(Land)=610 and Gary Little reports 421(DET)+104(ATT)+77(Land)=602. It’s a difference of only 1.3%; however, in a small market an 8 sale difference is notable. We’ll see how this ends in December.

3. There is a definite shift upwards in the 2015 Sales By Price Range data in the $200,000 to $599,000 price ranges compared to 2014. Using the July 2015 YTD % data with 2014 data in brackets, here’s my proof...
  • $200,000 to $299,000: 10.9% (15%)
  • $300,000 to $399,000: 33.6% (36.7%)
  • $400,000 to $499,999: 21.8% (16.3%)
  • $500,000 to $599,000: 13.4% (12.5%)

My guess is we’re seeing the impact of the falling Bank of Canada interest rate and its impact on mortgage rate; in other words, cheap money makes those granite countertops, stainless steel appliance, marble bathrooms and ballroom bedrooms mighty attractive. Why not, life is short and real estate prices never fall - the last five years on the Sunshine Coast were an aberration, right, and things are different it’s party time!!!

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1161]

Detached Median Sales Price

Once again, I’m showing my median selling price calculations versus Gary Little’s. I began doing so with my first 2015 stats post. As I explained then, Gary Little’s calculation includes single detached home sales + million dollar property sales. The REBGV includes single detached homes sales + million dollar property sales + MOP sales. My median selling price includes single detached homes sales + MOP but removes million dollar property sales which I believe distort the median selling price data on the Sunshine Coast where the vast majority of sales are below the million dollar mark.

To round out the comparison, the Board reports a June median selling price of $395,000 and a July price of $430,000. Also note, the chart with Little’s data still shows a downward sloping trendline whereas my chart is almost flat – so I think barring a major calamity, the days of falling home prices on the SC may finally be at an end and when it turns you'll see that first in my chart.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1162]

to be cont'd...

August 17, 2015 Update: Realtor® Kenan MacKenzie has re-released his July 2015 ‘Real Estate Reflections’ in this week’s Coast Reporter. I am sure the denizens of the Sunshine Coast breathed a collective sigh of relief to learn the coast’s population would not be increasing ten-fold and change. Yes, the sales stats and listings are much more down-to-earth. To peruse this less exuberant market reflection, visit Kenan’s blog page here.

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RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats - by Skook - 08-14-2015, 03:53 PM

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