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2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
11-28-2015, 12:22 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-28-2015, 03:55 PM by Skook.)
#11
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
August - September 2015 SC Sales Stats

Holy Crap, I am so stupidly behind in my stats posts that it is just...well...stupid. So, I’m not going to be elaborating much in this post. A few August stats are posted directly above which you might want to review and directly below are September’s results which saw a nice increase in detached and attached sales after the August holidays. Total sales were up +23% versus August and +29% year-over-year and versus September 2013 sales rose +39%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1195]

I’ll let you wade through the residential sales by area below. What is of note are the year-to-date sales stats which show all five market areas on the coast are having a great year compared to 2014 which in itself was a good year compared to 2013. September’s total residential sales stood at 785 – that’s up +38% compared to 2014 and +67% versus 2013.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1196]

Note: I have highlighted Sechelt’s September’s year-to-date total as a note to myself because it differs from Realtor® Gary Little’s total by 3. It’s just something for me to keep an eye on.

Single Detached Home Sales

The historical detached sales figures are interesting. This REBGV data and includes single detached homes and manufactured homes on pads. August was the best year since 2007, but September...well, you have to reach back to 2004 to better those 77 sales. It used to be a given that once the kids went back to school real estate sales slumped, but not this year and not during those wild and wooly boom years of from 2002-2006. So, what do you think the insanity has returned? Is speculation running amok once again?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1197]

Detached Sales by Price Range

The REBGV’s large yellow table breaks down August sales by price range and type. Note that “other” represents land sales. I’ve separated out the million dollar property sales in the smaller tables and chart below. The $300,000-$399,999 continues to be the most popular price range representing 33.9% of year-to-date sales.

   
(click on image)

Now, something happened in September at the REBGV – the board updated its software and it screwed up September’s sales stats. You can see the affect in the image below. When the board releases its monthly sales by price range table, it is in fact a year-to-date sales table. So, every month I sit down and subtract the previous month sales to determine what sales have actually occurred in the current month. You can see how I do that in the image on the right. I have my August YTD totals on the far right and I subtract each total from its counterpart in the REBGV table on the far left. You can see the results I got on the left side of the white table – all those negative numbers and that number 4 told be the results were questionable to say the least; so, I threw them out the window.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1200]


I had to turn to plan B and count all the sales on my own. This is one reason why I got behind in my stats since it was a long, tedious job but I had to do it or I wouldn’t be able to do anything with October’s numbers when they were released. My September Sales-By-Price results are below.

   
(click on image)

Detached Median Sales Price

Just a reminder that in my table and corresponding chart directly below (green) all “$1mill+” single detached property sales have been removed from the calculation. I do include MOP sales. You can compare my results with SC Realtor® Gary Little in the table and chart below mine. He does include “$1mill+” detached sales but removes MOP sales. As I stated in earlier posts, those million dollar property sales distort the results upwards and therefore aren’t a true reflection of the overall market property sales. I believe my data helps explain why we are still seeing price drops on the coast – home owners aren’t pricing their properties correctly. That being said the trendline in both tables tells us that the tide has turned and that home prices should be rising especially as inventory dries up and it has - dramatically.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1202]

HPI and Benchmark Price

The REBGV made a change to its HPI index back in 2012 which is why that table begins Jan 2012. We see that the HPI is now at its highest point since that change. As for the Benchmark Price, I wanted to show the last peak on the SC which is why that data stretches back to Jan 2010. The SC has a long way to go before it matches that May 2010 peak price. September’s Benchmark of $383,100 is -16.3% below peak. The August Benchmark at $424,800 was -17.5% below peak.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1203]

Sales to List Ratio

Realtors®, market analysts, and real estate boards use a sales-to-list ratio to determine if market conditions are pointing towards a ‘buyer’s market, a balanced market or a seller’s market. The REBGV calculates this for us on its ‘MLS® Listings Facts’ page in its monthly stats package. I created the tables and chart below based on that data. Now, what is significant is that the board is using each month’s “new” active listings to calculate that ratio percentage figure (monthly sales ÷ new listings = % sales-to-listings ratio). Now, my chart does reflect what happened historically on the coast: the market took off between the years 2002 to 2006 and then crashed late 2007 and remained suppressed until late 2013.

As you can see as of the end of September, the year-to-date % sales ratio stands at 59% and according to the REBGV we technically enter a “seller’s” market when the ratio hits 55-60%. I generously placed the red line at 55% in my chart. The chart is reflecting the current situation on the SC of rising sales and falling new listings each month particularly over these last few months. So, if we are now entering a seller’s house prices should definitely start to rise.

But, is this reality? I will offer another option after the chart.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1204]

So, the REBGV make the above data available to the media and public each and every month. However, in the covering letter included with September’s data the board uses a completely different sales-to-list ratio to describe its market area conditions (and the SC is part of REBGV). Here’s what the board wrote:

Quote:The sales-to-active-listings ratio in September was 31 per cent.

Hello? The board gave the SC a sales-to-list ratio of 108% at the end of September; so, how can one of the hottest markets in the world have a ratio of only 31%? The keyword in that quote is “active”. The board isn’t using the monthly new listings in its calculation but the total active listings as they existed for September (I’m not sure if that is an average of September’s active listings or the active listings on the last day of the month).

I had never come across this calculation applied to the SC in all my searches until The Robinson Group posted a July SC Sales summary report on their Facebook page. You can see that July summary above in my August 8 post (scroll back or click here).

So using sales and total active listings, The Robinson Group showed these sales-to-active listings ratios:

June – 18%
July – 15%
August – 11.4% (Sales: 62. Active Listings: 548)

(TRG did release an August summary and you can check it out on their September 8th Facebook page post.)

Now returning to the REBGV’s September stats cover letter, the board states:

Quote:Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio declines below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches 20 per cent, or higher, in a particular community for a sustained period of time.

Now, that SC ratio fell in July and August but that is holiday time on the west coast. So what happened in September? Sadly, The Robinson Group didn’t release a report and I think it was due to either that REBGV software update I eluded to earlier that screwed up September’s sales data but I could be wrong since they didn’t release a summary for October either – at least not to their Facebook page.

So, I did my own calculation but I stress my total active listings is an average based on Realtor Gary Little’s real estate map listings each day. September began with 538 detached listings and ended with 491 and the average was 513.

SC September Sales-to-Active Listings ratio = 77 ÷ 533 x 100 = 14.4%

If I use the number of active listings on the last day of the month, I get:

77 ÷ 511 x 100 = 15.1%

In either example, the ratio is moving up but is still below the 20% mark that if sustained would lead to rising prices. It’s also well July’s 18%. At best, you have to describe the SC real estate market as “balanced” which my chart above shows we’ve all but kissed goodbye.

So, what’s going to happen in October? Any bets?


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RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats - by Skook - 11-28-2015, 12:22 PM

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