2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats

[JimmyWW]

(04-17-2015, 08:44 AM)Skook Wrote: I have one caveat concerning the data – the sales total may include vacant land sales. My hope is the VanPeak board member JimmyWW who is keeping a close eye on BI will share his insights with us all.

Here is the REBGV Benchmark data for Bowen Island. We’re seeing it slowly rise which I believe is attributed to the ‘value’ of the homes purchased – new built vs old, features (granite counters, wood trims, etc) and so on. Again, JimmyWW might be able to elaborate on this.

Hi guys

As ever, Skook's hunches are pretty close to the truth: I count three land sales and thirteen property sales since the start of the year on island. Two of those property sales have been at or around the $1.5m mark, a factor which would raise the average price of the other sales by around $150,000 apiece.

I only know the achieved price for five of the other 11 property sales. One of these was just under asking (638K against 639K) and the property sold within ten days - suggesting a) that demand is there if the price is right and b) buyers ain't dumb. The other four prices I know of are worth looking at, since each of the others went for at least 10% below asking, and in two of the four cases below assessment as well.

So it is (as with Sunshine Coast, which Skook has covered elsewhere) that a generally declining market with some evidence of seller capitulation is papered over by a couple of massive sales well over $1m, bringing up the average sales price considerably. I lack access to all of the sales data, but taking a mini-sample of the five I know about, the discount to list on average is above 10%.

I identify two micro-trends here which Skook's alluded to in his Sunshine Coast work - the impact of ultra-ultra low interest rates on the one hand; and a quiet awareness on the part of sellers that the market is past its peak on the other.

In other posts I have written of the now four $1m plus properties I know about on the island which have been languishing for seven years; there's another property which the most reliable of sources (a realtor) assures me has "chased the market down" for seven years now, its asking price reduced by 40%, only to find the market has further reduced.

As with SC, there's now a dearth of new inventory on island. This means that either buyers will be paying more, or that sales will hit a cliff if there is a buyers strike. The "Spring market" is almost over, but I'm sticking with my call made in December - I think we'll see a broadly stagnant market in 2015 and early 2016. in a year's time, the economy and interest rates may be different, but I now don't expect much real change before thee end of 2016 or early 2017.

Cheers as always, Skook, for your great work.


Jimmy