Gibsons Development - Island Vista

[Skook]

September 9, 2013 Update:

So, did any of the remaining 6 units in this 8-unit townhouse complex which have been on the market since 2010 sell over the summer? ...... (How do you indicate silence in print?)

No, not one of these ‘New York Brownstone Inspired’ units sold. I guess they’re still too ‘New Yorky’ for west coast tastes since price drops in May and June failed to attract buyers.

I think this small Gibsons development offers a perfect example of a seller (the developer in this case) desperately looking for the price point that will finally attract a buyer. For Island Vista, this is how its pricing evolved over the span of three years as seen from these development website screen captures.

Pre-construction sale pricing lasted a full year on the website and when construction was completed pricing increased substantially. Now, I speculated that a Sunshine Coast Realtor might be the developer behind this project because not once is a development company named on the Island Vista website. If this is in fact the case, you would think that he or she above anyone else would have been cognisant of what was taking place in the SC real estate market. As I illustrated in my ‘Interpreting Sunshine Coast Real Estate Sales - The 3 Amigos’, the benchmark price for single detached homes peaked in July, 2010 and as of August, 2013 it has fallen 22.5% (-22.5%). There is no reason not to believe the same pattern hasn’t befallen townhomes and condos benchmark prices. Now, the REBGV does not report the benchmark prices for ‘attached’ sales on the SC in its monthly stats package because the volume of sales is too low; nevertheless, I am sure that information has to be available to Realtors. I can only speculate that like everyone else, the developer preferred to look at the Average and Median Sale Price stats only.

So, what has the developer’s response been to this dismal summer of sales - the unit pricing was dropped again on August 30th. That’s three price drops in four months. Someone is getting worried…very worried.

Here’s the updated spreadsheet for Island Vista…

(Outdated spreadsheet removed. Click here for new spreadsheet.)

This latest price drop (in blue) represents an 11.6% and 10.0% drop from the peak pricing set in2012 ($395,000 & $399,000). As well, the units are now priced 30-40 thousand dollars below assessment. Will this latest price drop spur sales? Oh, I doubt it.

(Note: I might finally have figured out why Unit 5 sold so high over asking. During pre-construction sales, buyers had the option of installing an ‘in-suite private elevator.’ That could be worth an additional $47,850).

A really big update to the update:

Okay, so I'm human...LOL. I am not sure why, but I decided to google 'Island Vista' after I posted and discovered the project got a 'plug' in the Calgary Herald on August 18, 2013, 'Island Vista looks bright for sailors' - yep, when nothing seems to be working, head to Alberta and to Calgary in particular where the money is burning a hole in their pockets - I mean, look at the insanity of their current real estate market.

The article introduces us to a couple, Janice and Don Brewster, who bought into the project - they must be lonely. The couple hail from Edmonton - really? So, they bought their unit in 2011 and made it their permanent residence in last year. I wonder how they're feeling as the listing prices keep dropping? Oh, it just so happens that Don Brewster had a commercial real estate business in god's country. Hmmm, now why would the Calgary Herald take an interest in a very small 8-unit townhouse development on the Sunshine Coast?

From this 'article' we also learn the developer is not a Realtor but an architect, Eugene Evanetz, who happens to live on the Sunshine Coast. According to the CH,

Quote:Evanetz, who holds degrees in science and architecture, worked for many years on designing and building projects in Hawaii, eventually returning to do consulting work and project management in Canada. He lives in Roberts Creek, halfway between Gibsons and Sechelt.

Evanetz is also an instructor in Simon Fraser University's Continuing Education Department. Hmm, looks like his "over 37 years of real estate development experience in Canada and the United States" didn't help with this project. But, then, he is in very good company on the Sunshine Coast.

Now, it just so happens this Calgary Herald piece followed a "Special To The Sun" (as in Vancouver Sun) article penned by Christina Symons who writes for the Sunshine Coast's own weekly newspaper, the Coast Reporter. Her Sun piece, 'Location and price on the sunshine coast' appeared on July 20, 2013.

In the Sun piece, we get to meet the other couple who call Vista Island home, Cheryl and John Stewart - they must be lonely, too. It turns out they did in fact install an elevator so that means they own Unit 5. They've been living on the SC since 1991.

Obviously, that Vancouver Sun piece didn't make a bit difference to sales either; but, you gave it your best shot Christina.

A final thought...

The developments including this one in Gibsons that I have profiled in this forum were chosen simply because I found them to be interesting; and, because I couldn't understand why they weren't selling which is what made them interesting.

Therefore, my postings have been an attempt to understand what is taking place in the SC real estate market. When you see a development like Island Vista that is languishing along with the majority of developments on the SC despite all efforts whether it be lowering prices or garnishing media attention, then there is something far bigger at play here.

The only conclusion I can reach is that the real estate bubble is bursting and it's the Benchmark Price and Home Price Index that are the leading indicators that this is so. The good times are over pure and simple and the reasons why are now offered on a daily basis in the main stream media. This isn't just a Sunshine Coast issue, it is a provincial, national and international issue. Lying at its very heart, is the issue of debt; debt based almost solely on entitlement. How did we get here? Just open your wallet and stare at all those rectangles. We have all forgotten what is the true value of a dollar as we whip out the plastic to buy today what we will pay off tomorrow or next month or next year or maybe never - like half million or million dollar mortgages.

Perhaps the well is finally dry.

Thus Spoke Zarathustra