Vancouver Peak

It would be a good idea for everyone to post their predictions on the future of the Canadian Real Estate Market.

Here's mine, as written in an article for GEAB:
"The LEAP/2020 team anticipates as well, based on historical price-to-rent
ratios, a real estate correction averaging 45% in the main Canadian cities. Each city will not be evenly
affected by the coming burst, that will likely start in Vancouver in early 2013 and will progressively spread
across Canada. Prices will first experience a rapid decrease of 15% to 25% within three years and the rest
of the correction will be slow and take a decade to unfold. Western Canadian cities will be more affected
(Vancouver: -55%, Winnipeg: -54% and Calgary: -52%) than Eastern and Central cities (Toronto: -47%,
Ottawa: -41% and Montréal: -35%) according to our estimates. Such a debacle will engender a series of
serious economic difficulties from which, as in the US, it will be very difficult to emerge. Unlike the rest of
the G8, the most difficult times have yet to come for Canada…"

Well, it is hard for me to predict most Canadian cities but I did live in Vancouver for 6 years and now in San Francisco. I suspect Vancouver inner city will go down ~30% over the next 3 years. Inner city less, out lying Vancouver more. Suburbs without transportation access or other amenities I suspect will be down ~40-50% in the same time frame.

(12-29-2012, 05:35 PM)Makaya Wrote: [ -> ]It would be a good idea for everyone to post their predictions on the future of the Canadian Real Estate Market.

Here's mine, as written in an article for GEAB:
"The LEAP/2020 team anticipates as well, based on historical price-to-rent
ratios, a real estate correction averaging 45% in the main Canadian cities. Each city will not be evenly
affected by the coming burst, that will likely start in Vancouver in early 2013 and will progressively spread
across Canada. Prices will first experience a rapid decrease of 15% to 25% within three years and the rest
of the correction will be slow and take a decade to unfold. Western Canadian cities will be more affected
(Vancouver: -55%, Winnipeg: -54% and Calgary: -52%) than Eastern and Central cities (Toronto: -47%,
Ottawa: -41% and Montréal: -35%) according to our estimates. Such a debacle will engender a series of
serious economic difficulties from which, as in the US, it will be very difficult to emerge. Unlike the rest of
the G8, the most difficult times have yet to come for Canada…"

I suspect, at some point in 2013, we will see a surge of buying as pent up demand believes prices have fallen enough to rationalize getting back into the market.

What for the frenzy of media extolling the fact the bottom is in and NOW is the time to buy.

It will last for several months and test the patience of bears.