03-16-2014, 11:33 AM
This first 2014 VIREB stats post combines the data for both January and February; so, you might want to grab a coffee and make yourself comfortable. If you would like to refer back to December, 2013 sales stats, here is that VanPeak post.
I am going to begin by quoting excerpts from the VIREB Press Releases included with the January and February stats package. They are worth keeping in mind as you look through the stats and I will be referring back to some of the remarks as I present the data. The ‘bold’ text highlighting is my own.
The tables directly below deal solely with single detached homes (SFH) sales. As we can see, last month’s sales were up significantly from January and January was up 1% from December.
The next two large tables show SFH homes sales by area for January and February. What I include, unlike the Board, is the % change in Unit Sales, Average Sales Price, and Median Sales Price vis-à-vis the previous month in addition to the previous year.
Next, are the MLS Home Price Index and Benchmark Price Data for January and February SFH sales. According to the Board’s that have adopted this method of sales reporting, they are the most reliable tools for reflecting market trends. To quote from the VIREB stats package:
If you were to plot both the HPI and Benchmark Price, you would notice the charts mirror each other. You can see this via my Sunshine Coast Jan/Feb 2014 stats post (scroll down to bottom of post). So, the % changes I offer for Benchmark Pricing is applicable to the HPI changes which is why I do not bother with that side of the table.
This Benchmark Price is the value placed on what the Board has chosen as a “typical” single detached home is each VIREB market area. If you look at February’s table, you will notice that for the “Islands” the value of that home has continued to drop since 2009 (you’ve got to love rising ferry costs!). Duncan is another area that is showing poor results. The only bright spot for home values is Campbell River which reflects its popularity for home buyers. It seems buyers are moving north. Overall, the Benchmark Price has still not recouped from the 2011 price dip which is why the Board says it is “cautiously optimistic” that slow growth will continue in 2014.
I am adding a new chart with this post which will help give your eyes a rest from all the tables. This pie chart shows the year-to-date sales for SFH by price range. The majority of sales to date have occurred in the $300,001 - $400,000 followed by $200,001 - $300,000. Again, this is the VIREB market as a whole. This is valuable info for those putting their homes on the market. This data is released in a package to Realtors and some post the package on their websites. You can download it from Coast Realty Group and Nanaimo Re/Max Realtor John Cooper websites.
The next tables show VIREB real estate sales by type for January and February on a month-to-month, year-over-year, and year-to-date basis. December, 2013 sales totalled 292 (SFH=210, Condo(Apt)=24, Condo (Patio)=14, Townhouse=23, Lot=21).
These tables are followed by the 2014 Market Statistics table. I have included Nov/Dec 2013 stats for comparison. Again, this data is released to Realtors and you can find it in the packages posted at the sites I mentioned above.
There are three pieces of data in the Market Statistics table that are very important. The “Units Sold”, ”Units Listed” (new units listed each month) and the “Sell/List” Ratio. This past week, I explored the “Sell/List” ratio (dependent on Units Sold/Listed) for my Sunshine Coast stats and discovered this % actually helps you determine if its “Buyer’s” or “Seller’s” market. I am preparing a separate post that looks at this “Sell/List” ratio for SFH since 2007 and hope to post it shortly.
In the meantime, we can see that there has been a marked increase in new SFH home listings in both January and February. If sales (demand) doesn’t keep pace with new listings (supply), then this could put pressure on prices which is why in its February press release, the Board warns, “the market is still quite price sensitive.”
The charts below show New Listings, Total Active Listings, Units Sold for both SFH and Lots by month since January 2010. They are followed by the SFH Waterfront sales table and chart.
I am going to begin by quoting excerpts from the VIREB Press Releases included with the January and February stats package. They are worth keeping in mind as you look through the stats and I will be referring back to some of the remarks as I present the data. The ‘bold’ text highlighting is my own.
Quote:From Jan 2014 Stat Pkg:
Sales activity across the Vancouver Island housing market area is in full swing this January, with reports of healthy inventory levels and unit sales across the Board.
VIREB president, Blair Herbert, is encouraged by the healthy sales activity occurring across the market coverage area. “The market began to show signs of vitality in the latter half of 2013, and this momentum has continued to build as we move forward into January. The numbers definitely bode well for our spring market,” he stated.
The benchmark price is down 0.1 per cent from last month and increased 0.8 per cent from last year. The average price of a single-family home in the VIREB area was $318,628, which is the same as it was this time last year.
According to BCREA economist, Brendon Ogmundson, VIREB is right on-target to meet its forecasted growth for the year. “Currently, VIREB is on-track to meet its 1.5% projected sales growth for 2014. Pricing continues to remain relatively flat; however, we do anticipate a slight increase later this spring.”
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From Feb 2014 Stat Pkg:
VIREB president, Blair Herbert, is encouraged that market activity has been trending upwards for the past few months, and is cautiously optimistic that we will continue to see slow continued growth throughout 2014.
“Over the past few months, we have witnessed strong year-over-year percentage gains in terms of unit sales; however, it is important to note that last year marked a cyclical low in sales activity, so our numbers are not trending as high as they may appear,” he stated. “That being said, when looking at our sales figures over a longer period of time, our activity is close to reaching the ten-year average, so things are definitely moving in the right direction in terms of achieving balanced market conditions.”
The benchmark price is down 0.9 per cent from last month and increased 1.39 per cent from last year. The average price of a single-family home in the VIREB area was $345,164, which is up 10% over this time last year.
“Although pricing has remained relatively flat over the last couple of months, we anticipate that this slow and steady market growth could produce a bit of upward pressure on pricing moving forward,” said Jason Finlayson, VIREB President-Elect. “While we haven’t experienced significant gains thus far, the market is still quite price sensitive, so it is important to contact a local REALTOR® in your area to ensure your property is priced correctly.”
The tables directly below deal solely with single detached homes (SFH) sales. As we can see, last month’s sales were up significantly from January and January was up 1% from December.
The next two large tables show SFH homes sales by area for January and February. What I include, unlike the Board, is the % change in Unit Sales, Average Sales Price, and Median Sales Price vis-à-vis the previous month in addition to the previous year.
Next, are the MLS Home Price Index and Benchmark Price Data for January and February SFH sales. According to the Board’s that have adopted this method of sales reporting, they are the most reliable tools for reflecting market trends. To quote from the VIREB stats package:
Quote:Average and median home prices are often misinterpreted, are affected by change in the mix of homes sold, and can swing dramatically from month to month (based on the types and prices of properties that sold in a given month). The MLS® HPI overcomes these shortcomings.
Compared to all other Canadian home price measures, the MLS® HPI identifies turning points sooner, is the most current, and is the most detailed and accurate gauge for Canadian home prices.
If you were to plot both the HPI and Benchmark Price, you would notice the charts mirror each other. You can see this via my Sunshine Coast Jan/Feb 2014 stats post (scroll down to bottom of post). So, the % changes I offer for Benchmark Pricing is applicable to the HPI changes which is why I do not bother with that side of the table.
This Benchmark Price is the value placed on what the Board has chosen as a “typical” single detached home is each VIREB market area. If you look at February’s table, you will notice that for the “Islands” the value of that home has continued to drop since 2009 (you’ve got to love rising ferry costs!). Duncan is another area that is showing poor results. The only bright spot for home values is Campbell River which reflects its popularity for home buyers. It seems buyers are moving north. Overall, the Benchmark Price has still not recouped from the 2011 price dip which is why the Board says it is “cautiously optimistic” that slow growth will continue in 2014.
I am adding a new chart with this post which will help give your eyes a rest from all the tables. This pie chart shows the year-to-date sales for SFH by price range. The majority of sales to date have occurred in the $300,001 - $400,000 followed by $200,001 - $300,000. Again, this is the VIREB market as a whole. This is valuable info for those putting their homes on the market. This data is released in a package to Realtors and some post the package on their websites. You can download it from Coast Realty Group and Nanaimo Re/Max Realtor John Cooper websites.
The next tables show VIREB real estate sales by type for January and February on a month-to-month, year-over-year, and year-to-date basis. December, 2013 sales totalled 292 (SFH=210, Condo(Apt)=24, Condo (Patio)=14, Townhouse=23, Lot=21).
These tables are followed by the 2014 Market Statistics table. I have included Nov/Dec 2013 stats for comparison. Again, this data is released to Realtors and you can find it in the packages posted at the sites I mentioned above.
There are three pieces of data in the Market Statistics table that are very important. The “Units Sold”, ”Units Listed” (new units listed each month) and the “Sell/List” Ratio. This past week, I explored the “Sell/List” ratio (dependent on Units Sold/Listed) for my Sunshine Coast stats and discovered this % actually helps you determine if its “Buyer’s” or “Seller’s” market. I am preparing a separate post that looks at this “Sell/List” ratio for SFH since 2007 and hope to post it shortly.
In the meantime, we can see that there has been a marked increase in new SFH home listings in both January and February. If sales (demand) doesn’t keep pace with new listings (supply), then this could put pressure on prices which is why in its February press release, the Board warns, “the market is still quite price sensitive.”
The charts below show New Listings, Total Active Listings, Units Sold for both SFH and Lots by month since January 2010. They are followed by the SFH Waterfront sales table and chart.