Sunshine Coast, BC: 2013 Real Estate Sales - The Big Picture

[Skook]

I thought I would round out the overview of SC 2013 RE Sales with the Prudential Sussex Realtor Kenan MacKenzie’s ‘Reflections’ which appeared in the Coast Reporter January 10, 2013 Real Estate Weekly.

Quote:Market update for the Year 2013

Sunshine Coast Detached listings
There are 522 current detached listings in the same period in 2012 we had 421 detached listings. Detached sales ending December 31 there were 449 detached sales, in 2012 there were 479 sales and in 2011 there were 458 sales. The current market’s hot price range is below $400,000, with 256 sales occurring in this price range. With the current pace of sales this represents a 14 month supply of listings; we are down 30 sales over 2012.

Sunshine Coast Attached Listing
There are 147 current attached listings this is up slightly over 2012 in the same period we had 141 attached listings. Attached sales ending December 31, there were 95 sales, in 2012 there were 88 sales and in 2011 there were 94 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents a 18 month supply of listings. Attached listing represents strata unit apartments, condos and townhouses. Attached sales are up slightly over the previous year.

Sunshine Coast Land listing
There are 345 bare land listing this is up from 2012 when we had 323 listings. Land sales ending December 31 there were 59 sales, in 2012 there were 66 sales and in 2011 there were 83 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents a 70 month supply.

The Stats below are for detached sales only and for the entire Sunshine Coast:

• $000 to $300,000 with 123 sales
  
• $301,000 to $400,000 with 133 sales
  
• $401,000 to $500,000 with 81 sales
  
• $501,000 to $600,000 with 46 sales
  
• $601,000 to $700,000 with 24 sales
  
• $701,000 to $ 800,000 with 18 sales
  
• $801,000 to $900,000 with 6 sales
  
• $901,000 to $1,000,000 with 4 sales
  
• 15 sales over a $1,000,000 this year
  

What can I say about 2013, other than it was a struggle. I am thank-full for the experience but I look forward to 2014 and I think all of the Sunshine Coast Realtors/Sellers would join me in this sentiment.

I like to look at the bare land listings sales as a barometer of our economy of the Sunshine Coast. Since the height of the market in 2006 where we sold 241 bare land listings the sales have steadily declined to last year sales of 59 sales. The reason this is a good barometer of the economy is imagine how many construction jobs were available in 2006 as to what is available today. For every construction job there is a multiplier effect some people say it is 2 times, so for every construction job there is another 2 created in the service industries i.e. your mechanic, cashiers, restaurants, teachers. The cycle is typically 6 to 7 years in length so if 2006/2007 was the peak 2014 should be the turn year.

Sechelt council has been particularly working hard at laying the ground work to attract new investments to the Sunshine Coast that will diversify our economy and create long lasting jobs. This hopefully soften the up and down market cycles of our Real Estate market. We should see some of these efforts come to fruit in 2014

The Sunshine Coast has some great buying opportunity for someone looking for a great deal, history shows us that it will not last and the Seller will be in the driver’s seat.

In his reflections, MacKenzie reaches back in time to 2006 when so many SC developments came on stream particularly in Sechelt: Wakefield Beach, Oracle Heights, Trail Bay Estates, and Silverstone to name just a very few. Yes, it was a great time for construction jobs that brought trades people to the coast who along with many a lower mainland RE investor snapped up so many of these new builds which, in turn, made it a very good time to be a SC Realtor.

It’s been a downhill ride ever since with MacKenzie hoping that 2014 will be the turning year. I think there will be an uptick in sales because falling prices have made the SC a buyers’ market; however, I don’t believe the RE market will ever come close to repeating what happened a decade ago - the economic factors that lead to boom are now history. So, MacKenzie is correct in his hope that the SC diversifies its economy and moves away from its dependency on construction as the main vehicle for growth.

As an aside, the first post above shows that vacant land sales actually peaked in 2004. The discrepancy between MacKenzie’s land sales figures for 2013 and 2006 and the graph depends on whether or not you include sales on the islands (Gambier, Keats, Thormanby, Nelson, etc). My source for the graph data (SC Sutton West Coast Realtors Joni Selmes and Gail Brachat) appears not to have included the island sales; however, in their new historical sales data release the opposite seems to be the case for 2013. My source for monthly SC sales data, SC Royal LePage Realtor Gary Little, does not include the islands’ sales. So, three local realty companies count the sales stats differently - something to keep in the back of your mind.