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2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
04-05-2015, 06:59 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-05-2015, 09:09 AM by Skook.)
#36
RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
December 2014 SC Sales Stats

Like spring in the rest of Canada, you had to have wondered if this post was ever coming. Well, here it is; so, let’s finally put the 2014 Sunshine Coast real estate baby to bed.

I began this 2014 sales stats thread on Feb 28th (yeah, yeah, I was late at the beginning, too) with SC Realtor Kenan MacKenzie’s January 24th ‘Real Estate Reflections’ in which he shared his colleagues’ thoughts for the year ahead. Well, they were right. They said the “phones were ringing off the hook” and that “January was the busiest in six years” and that the “markets are on the turn.”

A quick run back through the 2014 stats shows that for most months single detached home sales matched or bettered sales going back to 2009 and in some cases back to 2007 which was the year real estate collapsed on the SC. Did December do as well? Darling, sales were marrrr-vellous, simply marrrr-vellous.

December total sales were up +15% over November with detached sales jumping +19%; but, it’s the December’s year-over-year percentage changes that will blow your mind: 2014 vs 2013 up +91%, vs 2012 (a real bummer December) up a whopping +340%, and up +110% vs 2011. Yes, there were likely a lot more presents under the agents’ Christmas trees in 2014.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1067]

Comparing total sales, 2014 rose 26% over 2013, 21% vs 2012, and 22% vs 2011 – lots of green to match what remains of lower SC rain forest, yes-siree. As for the five SC market areas, lots of green there too except for Roberts Creek which saw a slight decrease in sales vs the year before.

Now, we get to those single detached home sales and look at the historical numbers! You have to go back all the way to December 2003 to find a month with better sales. I don’t know about you, but I feel like dancing.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1068]

If we break down those detached sales into market areas, it’s all positive in December even in Roberts Creek! And look at Sechelt’s December 2014 vs December 2012 percentage change – up +1800% - too funny. Of course, that’s what you get when you only sell 1 mobile home in a whole month (Dec 2012). After seeing that percentage, I’ve decided I won’t be carrying this percentage change experiment into 2015; you need a much larger volume of sales to avoid these goofy percentage changes.

Yes, after a bleak 7 years those rising detached homes sales were welcomed by most; however, there’s a caveat – while sales rose, home values dropped. I mentioned many times in my stats posts that buyers were looking for bargains – they wanted the best bang for their buck and the Sales-by-Price Range data bore this out. For all twelve months, the majority of homes sold in the $300,000 - $399,999 range and more than a few of those sales occurred after numerous price drops. The $200,000 - $299,999 range occupied 2nd spot during the first 4 months and in August. The $400,000 - $499,999 took over 2nd spot in May and during the last half of the year where it made up ground; of course, many of those price range sales came after numerous price drops, too.

So, how did the year end? The $300,000 - $399,999 range accounted for 34% of SC detached home sales, the $200,000 to $299,999 range had 15% of sales, and add only another 2.8% and the $400,000 to $499,999 range managed to sneak into second spot with 17.8% of sales.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1069]

So, December was this incredible month for SDH sales (44) which was 7 more than November’s (37), but look at the December’s median sale price in the table below ($383,134) and that’s despite 3 ‘$mill+’ home sales valued at $1.45mill, $1.63mill and $1.8mill; by the way, November had no home sales above $1mill and no MOP sales (manufactured on pad), but the homes sold were in the higher price ranges (14 sales between $150,000 to $380,000 and 22 sales between $400,000 to $950,000).

The source for these median sales price figure has been SC Realtor Gary Little and god bless the man for his incredible website. Now as I mention below the table, Little does not include MOP sales in his median price (he does include $mill+ home sales). In December, there were two MOP sales valued at $19,000 and $262,000 with the latter more expensive than the three lowest single detached home sales on lots ($155,000; $165,000; and, $193,500). The REBGV includes both MOPs and ‘$mill+’ sales in its median sales price.

Something that has always annoyed me about SC single detached home sales stats is this inclusion of ‘$mill+’ home sales because despite their few numbers they can hugely distort the median and average selling price figures. So, I have done some number crunching and here’s the result:
  • Gary Little gives us a December median sales price of $383,134 by excluding MOP sales and including ‘$mill+’ home sales.
  • The REBGV gives us a December median sales price of $373,134 by including both MOP sales and ‘$mill+’ home sales.
  • Skook (moi) is going to include MOP sales but exclude those ‘$1mill+’ sales, so December’s median sales price is...drum roll please...$364,000.

Yep, my median sales price shows a $60,000 drop from November – well, doesn’t that dampen the cheers over those December detached home sales. IMHO, it is my recalculated median sales that is of value for the majority of SC home sellers and you’ll be able to see why when I begin posting the 2015 sales stats (one reason why I am sooooo far behind..LOL)

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1070]

Those fantastic December sales figures aren’t reflected in the HPI or Benchmark Price either with barely a budge from November.

December’s sales-to-listings ratio was a whopping 209% - a reflection of the month’s miserly 22 new listings relative to sales. This month’s ratio helped move the year into mid-balanced market territory. A look at the historical table helps to clarify that relationship between sales and new listings and how they affect the sales-to-listing ratio.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1071]

I am putting together a package of 2014 year end tables and charts and will post those in a separate thread. Stay tuned.

December’s $mill+ property sales are posted separately here.
December’s Lot sales are posted separately here.

To conclude, here are the REBGV SC December 2014 sales charts (click on image to enlarge in a new tab and click on image again to further enlarge).

   


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RE: 2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats - by Skook - 04-05-2015, 06:59 AM

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