Bottom Call Thread

[fixbot]

Patriots started this thread to track 'bottom calls' for the Vancouver Real Estate Market:

I’ve created this thread to keep a record of bottom calls.

Quote:“According to Brown, this segment of the real estate business (Whistler hotel condos) is at the bottom of the cycle so prices are good right now.”

http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/whistle...id=2287721

patriotz said 6 months, 1 week ago:
Another Whistler bottom call in 2010 with its own thread:

Quote:“The message is, if you’re waiting for prices to drop before purchasing property in Whistler, you may be too late. The time to buy is now.”

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-...m-calling/

patriotz said 5 months, 2 weeks ago:
Hat tip to Gordholio.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Young+famili...z1yI19wQbR

Quote:There’s renewed post-recession interest in B.C.’s recreational property market and it’s largely from young families attracted by lower prices, according to a RE/MAX executive.

patriotz said 2 months, 2 weeks ago:
Apparently the first bottom call for Vancouver itself, virtually as soon as the usual suspects have acknowledged that prices are falling and from none other than Tsur Somerville. Maybe we should start another prediction thread – how many bottom calls will Tsur make?

http://vancouvercondo.info/2012/09/the-l...ent-173670

Phone: Tsur Somerville
Real Estate Foundation Professorship in Real Estate
Finance Director, UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate
LISTEN TO THE CKNW AUDIO VAULT AT 12:50PM SEPT 19 12:45-1:00

http://www.cknw.com/news/audiovault/index.aspx

jesse7p said 1 month, 1 week ago:

Quote:“If over the next year prices fell by 10 per cent I wouldn’t be shocked, but I think [prices] would rebound,” [Tsur] Somerville said. “China slowing down dramatically and causing dropping commodity prices would be dramatic for B.C. But I don’t see anything out there right now, to push us into major price declines.”

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Vanc...story.html#

jesse7p said 4 weeks, 1 day ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGQo7tNzCxY

Quote:“This is not the beginning of a major correction or recession or decline in housing prices of 15 or 25 per cent as some predict, mainly because we are not seeing an economic recession play out at the same time.”

Helmut Pastrick, Central 1 Credit Union, November 2012

jesse7p said 2 weeks, 3 days ago:

Quote:“We’re likely going to see more of the same next year, certainly not expecting to see a dramatic rebound. I’m forecasting home sales will be up next year compared to this year but only in a modest percentage, still falling a little bit short of those longer term averages.”

- Cam Muir, November 15, 2012

http://www.cknw.com/shows/the_simi_sara_show.aspx

jesse7p said 1 week, 6 days ago:

Quote:“Vancouver, British Columbia’s housing sector may have hit its bottom with an improvement in home sales seen in October”

-Marc Pinsonneault, National Bank

http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2012...n-october/

[jesse]

Quote:"It's a mild market correction," said Credit Union Central economist Helmut Pastrick.

He predicts a continued soft real estate market for the next several months before buying and prices perk up in the second half of the year.

Pastrick bases his forecast on improving growth in the U.S. that will spill over into B.C. later in the year, and spur continued economic growth and home price gains in 2014-16.

He said the recent decline in prices may also help draw some prospective buyers back into the property market.

http://www.wevancouver.com/news/185715211.html
- January 4, 2013

[jesse]

Vancouver’s east side bucks B.C. real estate trend

BY IAN AUSTIN, THE PROVINCE JULY 9, 2013 9:05 PM

Quote:“I think we’ve seen the bottom,” said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with the Central 1 Credit Union. “If I was advising people, I would say lock in a rate for the longest term possible — seven or 10 years — as long as you can afford it.”

Pastrick said the budding economic turnaround south of the border is fuelling the coming mortgage-rate increase.

“The U.S. is still the largest economy in the world, and we’re clearly seeing some recovery there,” said Pastrick. “Everyone expects rates to move higher at some point.

“It’s a great time to lock in, as it has been for the last couple of years.”

Pastrick is talking about rates, not prices. Still a bottom call.

[jesse]

http://www.bcbusiness.ca/real-estate/hou...ed-to-rise

Good news for homeowners hoping their property value will go up (and bad news for buyers looking for a deal): a new forecast is calling for moderately higher sales and prices across B.C. for the next three years.

Central 1 Credit Union has increased its provincial pricing outlook, citing stronger population and economic growth. It predicts that the median resale house price in B.C. will end this year up about 1.5 per cent, at $388,000, and will increase steadily to $415,000 by 2016. That’s another 1.5-per-cent increase in 2014, followed by 2.5-per-cent bump in 2015 and three-per-cent hike in 2016.

“We are past the bottom in terms of our housing market correction in the post-recession period,” says Central 1 economist Bryan Yu. The bottom was in 2012, when the number of home sales across the province was 63,798, compared to 71,737 the previous year. Central 1 predicts sales to reach 68,085 in 2013, 72,560 in 2014 and 83,750 in 2016.

While the growth appears significant, Yu says the sales level is moderate when the province’s growing population is taken into consideration. Central 1 forecasts B.C.’s population to increase by about one per cent annually, to reach 4.7 million by 2016. At the same time, it expects the B.C. economy to grow two per cent next year and 3.1 per cent in 2015.

“We see a relatively stable environment going forward in most areas,” says Yu. “There isn’t a catalyst for a substantial drop off in pricing.”