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VIREB - 2013 Sales Data (Vancouver Island REB)
10-01-2013, 08:22 PM, (This post was last modified: 10-04-2013, 11:23 AM by Skook.)
#6
RE: VIREB - 2013 Sales Data (Vancouver Island REB)
September, 2012 Sales Update:

At the beginning of the month, the VIREB releases a simple table showing the previous month’s sales totals. This is the only information the Board “officially” makes available to the public. About a week or so later, it releases more in-depth sales info to Realtors and some pass that onto the public. So, I use the Board’s simple table until I can augment it with that more in-depth analysis.

However, over the last few months I have been modifying the Board’s simple table and I think it might be time to show you what I have been doing to “improve” the data. Directly below is the VIREB sales table for September. 2013. As you can see, you are given Single Family Home Unit sales for the current reporting month, the previous month and the previous year. Then you are given the percentage change between the current month’s sales and the previous year’s sales (Sept 2013 vs Sept 2012). The same process is applied to the Average Sale Price. The last column gives the Median Sale Price for the current reporting month (Sept 2013).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=453]

Now, here is what I have done to “improve” the table. Last month, I added a new column. I decided to calculate the percentage change between the reporting month and the previous month. So, in my September table you can now see in the unit sales section how September’s sales compare to August’s. I also did the same for the Average Sales price.

This month I have modified the Median Sales Price column by including the previous month’s data and, again, I have added a percentage change column. I’ve noticed that RE Boards don’t like to offer a month to month comparison; however, I am under the opinion that if you are selling or buying a home then you want to know what is happening this year which is why I have also created the small table showing the 2013 monthly totals with the month to month percentage change.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=466]

When I have access to the more detailed stat information, I will add it to this post.

October 4, 2013 Update:

Anyone following the news is aware that Real Estate Boards across the country are reporting a significant increase in September 2013 sales compared to September 2012. The VIREB in its October 1st press release that accompanied September’s stats likewise has lots of wonderful news to report. I thought it might be interesting to take a closer look at the press release and perhaps give it a different spin.

Quote:1st Paragraph:
NANAIMO, BC – Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales summary data for September released by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) shows housing sales activity across Vancouver Island was up 29 per cent compared to last year, while average sale price remained virtually unchanged. The average price of a single family home sold within the VIREB region in September 2013 was $323,914, down one per cent from this time last year. A total of 336 units sales were recorded in September 2013, in comparison to September 2012, when only 261 single family homes sold.

Yes, September 2013 sales were up +29% compared to September 2012; but, sales everywhere in 2012 were the pits. Of course, if we compare September Sales to the month before (August), housing sales dropped -14% which is on top of the -9% drop in August sales compared to July. The Average Sale Price dropped -5% compared to August which wiped out the +2% August gain compared to July. Units sold were 336 in September compared to 391 the month before (August) and 432 in July.

Yes, if you want a rosy picture you’ll definitely want to stick to comparing sales to 2012.

Quote:2nd Paragraph:
In terms of unit sales for September year-over-year, there continued to be fluctuations among our different areas: Campbell River reported a 7 per cent decline; Comox Valley unit sales spiked 59%; Nanaimo sales also grew by 57%; Parksville/Qualicum sales rose 27%; Cowichan Valley saw a 21% increase, and Port Alberni/West Coast experienced a dip, down 29%.

Zone stats are definitely better, too, if you stick to comparing to 2012. Campbell River sales Sept vs Aug: -38% and Aug vs July: -22%; Comox Valley sales Sept vs Aug: - 12% and Aug vs July: -22%; Cowichan Valley sales Sept vs Aug: -41% and Aug vs July: +3%; Nainamo sales Sept vs Aug: +3% and Aug vs July: -2%; Parksville/Qualicum sales Sept vs Aug: +9% and Aug vs July: -7%; and Port Alberni/West sales Sept vs Aug: -30% and Aug vs July: +4%.

Quote:3rd Paragraph:
“While we have witnessed significant fluctuations in our unit sales compared to September last year, when looking at these numbers year-to-date, we are reporting an eight per cent increase overall, indicative of a more balanced and stable market, compared to last year when activity levels were quite low” said VIREB president, Gary Gray. “When you compare unit sales to last month, most zones actually reported a slight decline in sales volume,” he stated.

Yes, SFH sales year-to -date was up +8% but it still doesn’t make up for the total decline in sales over the previous two years year-to -date figures and is still -1.3% below the YTD 2010 YTD sales. And, how are we to interpret Mr. Gary’s “slight decline in sales volume” when looking at what I wrote above? Hello?

Quote:4th Paragraph:
At the end of September 2013 there were 2,615 single family homes available on the Multiple Listing Service® within VIREB’s coverage area, down from the 2,911 homes in the system at the end of September 2012.

My SFH listings graph below takes care of this paragraph.

Quote:5th Paragraph:
Comparing September 2013 to September 2012, the average sale prices across VIREB’s six geographic areas saw: Campbell River up seven per cent with average sales price listed at $280,278; the Comox Valley fell nine per cent to $333,920; Nanaimo dipped five per cent to $341,604; Parksville/Qualicum prices were down two per cent to $384,717; the Cowichan Valley dropped 13 per cent to $276,472, while Port Alberni/West Coast remained relatively stable, reporting a one per cent dip in price with an average of $243,691.

Average Sale Prices dropped in all zones in Sept vs Aug except in the Comox Valley which saw a +2% increase which doesn’t make up the -6% decrease in Aug vs July. For the remaining zones, September’s decreases wipe out most gains seen in Aug vs July with only the Parksville/Qualicum zone still slightly ahead.

Yes, we’re doing marvelous, simply marvelous.

******************************

Here are the remaining VIREB September, 2013 sales statistics.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=467]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=468]

Note: I have posted an Announcement concerning an important notice from the VIREB in its October 1st press release. This Announcement is at the top of the ‘Vancouver Island Data’ forum


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RE: VIREB - 2013 Sales Data (Vancouver Island REB) - by Skook - 10-01-2013, 08:22 PM

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