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VIREB - 2013 Sales Data (Vancouver Island REB)
12-03-2013, 01:14 PM, (This post was last modified: 12-03-2013, 01:39 PM by Skook.)
#10
RE: VIREB - 2013 Sales Data (Vancouver Island REB)
November 2013 Sales Data:

Well, now, isn’t this a nice little drop from October’s sales (Note: figures rounded off).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=570]

So, let’s see what spin the Board can put on November’s stats in the first paragraph of its press release:

Quote:Sales activity across the Vancouver Island housing market area was relatively stable for the month of November, dipping only slightly from this time last year. Although there has been a minimal decline in activity, the Board remains on-target to reach its forecasted growth for this year, as a result of a strong summer and fall marketplace.

Yep, nice and positive to start with and then we move onto the second paragraph and it’s still upbeat until reality must be acknowledged, but only near the end of the second sentence.

Quote:The Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) reports a total of 288 single-family homes sold in the VIREB coverage area on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November 2013. This signifies a one per cent increase compared to the 286 sales recorded in November 2012, and a 17.7% drop from this time last month.

Okay, this looks bad, but wait, investors, let’s turn to an expert we know and trust for his take on this ugly drop. So,…

Quote:According to BCREA’s chief economist, Cameron Muir, the dip in sales activity this month is nothing to be concerned about. “Every market in BC has shown a retrenchment in demand this November, which could be attributed to flat employment levels and slow economic growth,” he stated.

There you go, it’s just a “dip” maybe due flat employment and slow economic growth. Heck, that’s nothing to be concerned about - only wimps worry about stuff like that. It’s still party, party, party as far as we’re concerned.

Here are the ‘Year-Over-Year’ stats which is what the Board would like everyone to concentrate on. The ‘Year-to-Date’ sales are positive compared to 2012 and it is due to those nice May to October numbers. However, should we really be cheering these numbers? According to a Scotiabank Economics press release issue on November 15, 2013 which looked at the sales across Canada...

Quote:On a very preliminary basis, this would feed into our view that sales rose over the spring and summer at the expense of future months as people exercised options to purchase within 90-120 day mortgage rate commitments on fears of losing the juicy rate commitments back in the spring. I maintain the view that the spring and summer market was a temporary interruption along a correcting sales path. That said, the lower volumes over coming months are likely to carry a lot of noise, and so the bigger test of the brought-forward argument will probably have to wait until we receive figures for how the market performs next Spring and early Summer which is traditionally when much of the year’s activity is concentrated (think school, and long winters).

Scotiabank had not been alone in urging caution over this year’s summer and fall sales figures.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=571]

What is noteworthy in the table above is the movement into negative territory for ‘Units Listed’ and ‘Active Listings’ for all listing types. There is always a seasonal drop on the coast at this time of year; however, the move into negative listing territory began in September.

Next, we have the new HPI and Benchmark Price data which shows only moderate change over the last year which many believe is why boards have adopted this method for analyzing sales. You will want to keep in mind the ‘Average’ and ‘Median’ sales figures shown in the second table at the beginning of this post.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=572]

Finally, here are my own graphs for SFH and Lots Listings. Please note that last night I sat down and completely REVISED the data.

When I first sat down to look at VIREB data for my first post, I was trying to find a way that explained the month-to-month total active listings. I was thinking: if you add the previous month’s sales, then subtract the current month’s sales, and then add the current month’s listings - it should all balance out. Well, of course, it didn’t. So, I think I threw my hands in the air and for some reason decided to add the current month’s ‘Units Listed’ to the current month’s ‘Active Listings’ in that 2013 Market Statistics table above to give me this new fantastic ‘Total Active Listings’ for the month which I then charted. Of course, by June, I completely forgot to follow this unique process and from then on was only plotting the ‘Units Listed’ and ‘Active Listings’ as shown directly in the table.

So, now both charts show only the data supplied by the Board without my ‘creative’ addition. It hasn’t changed the ‘behaviour’ or ‘look’ of the graph significantly, but the ‘Month Ttl’ data now corresponds with the Board’s ‘Active Listings’ data. Duh!

[Image: attachment.php?aid=573]

(Hat tip to VMD at Vancouver Condo Info for link to Scotiabank document in his post yesterday - #15.)


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RE: VIREB - 2013 Sales Data (Vancouver Island REB) - by Skook - 12-03-2013, 01:14 PM

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