Bowen Island/Gulf Islands - help please?

[JimmyWW]

Slightly late response here Sir Skook, chiefly because I wanted to let my reflections marinade a wee bit before putting finger to keyboard. And my repeated thanks for what you do - really helps to give us a market snapshot.

So here are my takeaways, briefly - I hope there's value in this for those interested in Sunshine Coast and elsewhere. In my previous posts, I've divided the BI market into sub-$600K; $600-800K; $800-1250 and then above $1.25m.

I'll draw a couple of observations about each, then make one reflection which speaks to your comments on Gibsons, etc in other posts.

Sub $600 - five sales/withdrawals in this segment since you last posted. Price drops abound, between 5 and 10% typically; some properties which are left are now edging down to assessment levels but note that I expect this year's assessment to be lower than last
$600-800 : the fewest sales, still same # of properties on market as Sept. Few price reductions. Suggests to me sellers here believe their properties to be "worth it" more than in other segments.
$800-$1250 - four sales and one confirmed withdrawal (confirmed to me by a private source). Interestingly, the withdrawal was listing at assessment and getting offers well below assessment, so withdrew the property. Now not going to sell for the foreseeable. I wonder if this is a smart move...?
Over $1250 - almost no movement: one sale, no price changes, no new properties.

The take-away: I can't prove it until the BC Evaluation stats with sales figures are published, but my strong feeling is that a sense of "get while the getting's good" is pervading bottom end and $800-$1250 markets. I know one of the properties in the latter segment took 18 months to sell and two price reductions; I also know of properties now sub-600 that started out at 699/700 and yet are still not selling.

Bottom line: As I want to buy Skook a drink one of these days, I'll make a wager that Nov and Dec will see rapid declines to around the $560K average price mark, and that Spring 2015 will define this market for the next few years. If it's strong, and I don't think it will be, we won't see significant drops for another year or more. But my overall impression is that some sellers are reluctantly getting the memo (not in mid market) and capitulating on price. Stagnant average price is explained by bias towards higher-value (800-1250) properties shifting at long last and lower value having lower $-number reductions. Probably a smart move for sellers to do a deal now if I'm right about what's going to happen next.


Jimmy