2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

It’s time to look back on March’s Sunshine Coast with our favourite bard, Prudential Sussex Realtor Kenan MacKenzie. I have to admit I have been tih-tih-tingling with anticipation to read his ‘Real Estate Reflections’ which appeared in the April 4th edition of the Coast Reporter’s Real Estate Weekly.

I did have a bit of fun with his February report, but I paid the price. This month I am taking a more sober approach to Kenan’s March analysis (need my wits about me), so I am preparing this post in the morning.

Now, we saw that whether intentionally or not, Kenan pumped up February’s detached sales by actually giving the total sales figure (all types) rather than just the detached sales figures; but, who can fault him as he has a tough row to hoe. He needs to excite buyers while not depressing sellers. So, let’s see how he manages this herculean task given March’s depressing sales figures. Without further delay, Kenan MacKenzie…

Quote:Sunshine Coast Detached listings
There are 669 current detached listings up from March. Year to date detached sales ending March 31, 2014 there were 78 detached sales, in 2013 there were 99 sales and in 2012 there were 122 sales for the same time period. The current market’s hot price range is below $400,000, with 50 sales occurring in this price range. With the current pace of sales this represents a 25 month supply of listings.

(Skook: Bravo! Rather than giving March’s sales figures, Kenan took a ‘year-to-date’ approach. That was a truly brilliant solution. Unfortunately, he had to throw in the 2013 and 2012 YTD numbers which was a real bummer, but hopefully no one sat down long enough to compare the results. 25 month supply of listings = 2 years 1 month.)

Sunshine Coast Attached Listing
There are 157 current attached listings. Attached sales ending March 31, 2014 totalled 26, in 2013 there were 25 sales and in 2012 there were 26 sales for the same time period. With the current pace of sales this represents an 18-month supply of listings. Attached listings represent strata unit apartments, condos and townhouses. Attached sales are up slightly over the previous year.

(Skook: The year-to-date comparison continues for attached sales; however, the REBGV reported 19 sales in 2013 and 23 sales in 2012. Oh well, not a big deal since 2014 YTD betters both those years and that’s what matters. 18 month supply = 1 year 6 months).

Sunshine Coast Land listing
There are 380 bare land listings. Land sales ending March 31, 2014 totalled 11, in 2013 there were 12 sales and in 2012 there were 13 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents a 121-month supply.

(Skook: Hmm, Kenan must be reporting YTD land sales of less than 1 acre which would be 11; however, if you include land sales equal to or greater than 1 acre, the YTD total is 16. My 2013 YTD total = 11 (above and below 1 acre). The 2012 YTD sales = 11 (above and below 1 acre). A 121 month supply = 10 years 1 month.)

The Stats below are for detached sales only and for the entire Sunshine Coast for the month of March:

• $000 to $300,000 with 26 sales
  
• $301,000 to $400,000 with 24 sales
  
• $401,000 to $500,000 with 10 sales
  
• $501,000 to $600,000 with seven sales
  
• $601,000 to $700,000 with four sales
  
• $701,000 to $ 800,000 with three sales
  
• $801,000 to $900,000 with one sale
  
• $901,000 to $1,000,000 with three sales
  
• Two sales over $1,001,000 this month
  

(Skook: I’m not going to bother checking these numbers, time’s a wasting so I’m heading to directly to Kenan’s conclusion. However, you can confirm Kenan's figures by comparing them to the REBGV 'Sales by Price Range' table in the post directly above.)

Buyers are getting a lot more for their money we can see by the stats that most of the sales have occurred below $400,000. What the stats do not show is what the buyer is getting for their money. When I look back at 2007 and compare to what a $400,000 home looked like, today the buyer is doing quite well. The wages set the limit and we can see across other markets that $400,000 is the sweet spot. In Vancouver you get a condo for that price on the Sunshine Coast you get a beautiful home. The Sunshine Coast has some terrific buying opportunity for someone looking for a great deal, history shows us that it will not last and the seller will be in the driver’s seat soon.

Let’s break this down that conclusion sentence by sentence.

“…most of the sales have occurred below $400,000.” - Yep, agree with that.

“What the stats do not show is what the buyer is getting for their money. When I look back at 2007 and compare to what a $400,000 home looked like, today the buyer is doing quite well.” - My interpretation: House prices are collapsing and, in fact, the collapse is picking up steam.

“The wages set the limit and we can see across other markets that $400,000 is the sweet spot.” - My interpretation: Huh?

Does this mean that wage earners on the SC are now piss-pot-poor? Or, that all the full-time, well-paying construction jobs have disappeared? Or, that the only work now available on the SC is part-time paying minimum wage? Or, that small businesses are disappearing and so are the jobs which explains the increase in house listings which is driving down prices? Or, all of the above?

“In Vancouver you get a condo for that price on the Sunshine Coast you get a beautiful home.” My interpretation : I can make this look good.

Well, since condo prices in Vancouver are collapsing, and if there exists a synchronicity between SC home sales and Vancouver condo prices, then buckle up and hold on folks because the roller coaster ride is on the downward slope and that slope is getting steeper and steeper.

“The Sunshine Coast has some terrific buying opportunity for someone looking for a great deal, history shows us that it will not last and the seller will be in the driver’s seat soon.” My interpretation: Lordy, this can’t continue, can it? I just have to think positive - where’s the Natural Law Party when you need it, eh?

Now, sellers haven’t been in the driver’s seat since 2007, and likely won’t be again until…hell freezes over? You only have to check out the Detached ‘Sales to Listings’ chart in the post directly above and remember that under 35% is a buyers’ market an equal to or over 55% is a sellers’ market. A full explanation of the ratio can be found in the thread, ‘Sunshine Coast Real Estate: A Seller's or Buyer's Market?’

Coming up next - April’s SC real estate sales from the 1st - 10th. Beauty.