2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

July, 2014 SC Sales Stats:

I am going to start posting the July sales stats because they’re just so darn inspiring following those heady numbers in May and particularly June.

So, let’s see compared to June - total sales down -37%, detached sales down -20%, attached sales down -75%, MOP sales down -67% and land sales down -70%. You can’t get any redder than that on a month to month basis.

July year-over-year stats are all in red, too, compared to 2013 and only detached sales showed positive results when comparing July 2014 sales to July 2012 and July 2011 sales.

Year-to-date total residential sales by area are all in positive territory except for Roberts Creek sales when comparing 2014 to 2013. Gibsons has had the hottest market to date in 2014 with sales up +34% compared to last year.

Zeroing in on single detached home sales alone we can see how last month fared going back all the way to July 2000. Overall, July does herald the end of the selling season on the Sunshine Coast; so, if a property has moved by now it likely won’t this year.

Just a reminder that last month I introduced new data calculations to the “Total Sales YOY” table and the “SDH Sales YOY” and SDH YTD - YOY” tables (these last two directly above). I am now giving the 1Y%Chg, 2Y%Chg and 3Y%Chg all relative to July 2014 data. (Hope this makes sense). Before, I was calculating % chg year to year (2014 vs 2013, 2013 vs 2012, and 2012 vs 2011 and I thought this wasn't very useful info - if you disagree, please let me know).

I mentioned before that I use SC Realtor Gary Little’s detailed monthly stats as the basis for my report. I pointed out that he separates Detached sales and Manufactured on Pad sales; however, the REBGV combines this data in its reports. So, the tables above are a high-bred - I show both Detached + MOP in the same box in the YOY table if there were sales in both (e.g. HMB: 4+1). The YTD - YOY table on the right is the total combine detached + MOP sales.

So, we can see that July SDH sales YOY are down -5% overall compared to 2013 and that Roberts Creek, Sechelt and Pender Harbour all saw SDH sales drop compared to July 2013.

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August 8, 2014: time to finish off the SC July sales stats.

Single Detached Median Sales Price:
This month there is a noticeable difference between SC Realtor Gary Little’s sales data and the REBGV data. Gary shows 52 single detached home sales and a median sales price of $395,250 (Note: I removed one of those detached sales from the total because it was actually a townhouse at Wakefield Beach). The REBGV data shows a total of 55 detached sales (includes MOP sales) with a median sales price of $380,000. I tend to accept Gary’s total as more accurate because he would note any collapsed sales before the Board would. So, the median sales price below is based on Gary’s sales data which shows a slight increase over last month; however, if Gary included the single MOP sales this month that median sales price might drop a bit.

HPI & Benchmark Price:
Last month, I noted the June’s data signalled a change coming since both were “flattening” out and July proved me right since July’s figures were exactly the same as June’s. I think the increase we saw in the HPI and Benchmark will prove to be a “dead cat bounce” and with the selling season now more or less over both figures will begin to drop. The homes that do sell during the remainder of the year will on the whole max out below $400,000 and we will see lower median and benchmark sales prices and HPI data.

SDH Sales-by-Price Range:
Once again, the majority of single detached home sales on the SC occurred in the $300,000 - $399,000 price range: the January - July YTD % Total shows that 59.4% of sales have occurred under $400,000. This is a 1.4% drop from June’s 60.8%; however, this doesn’t change the fact that buyers continue to look for value for their dollars and maybe willing to forego certain items like granite countertops and stainless steel appliances to get that value.

If the majority of buyers to the coast are retirees, then I believe this trend will continue. Low interest rates since the 2009 market crash have many scrambling to make up for lost investment income and they are likely doing so by selling their family homes as high as possible and buying their retirement “dream” home on the SC or Van Island at the best bargain price they can negotiate.

Those desperate to sell on the SC will have to keep this in mind as the year continues to unfold. Some of the recent price changes I seen on the SC have involved properties that have long held out dropping their price; well, those sellers are getting the message now.

Single Detached Sales-to-List Ratio:
July’s drop in sales and lower new listings figure was reflected in the Sales-to-List ratio which fell to 46% from June’s 54%. The ratio year-to-date total now rests at 37% - the same total reached for all of 2013. If we look at the year-to-date ratios in the table on the right below, we see the ratio has been dropping each year since the financial crisis of 2009 and its been inching ever close to the 35% mark - if the ratio is equal to or less than that 35% we have a full blown “buyers” market. Will the SC cross the Rubicon? Well, the ratio is dependent on both how many properties are sold and the number of new listings each month. Falling prices could spur sales and desperation to sale could spur the number of listings - so this one is hard to call. However, my gut feeling is that the final 2014 ratio will either match 2013 at 37% or be slightly lower at 35-36%.

The REBGV SC July sales charts follow in another post below.