2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

August, September, October SC Sales Stats – Part 2

When I first began posting about the Sunshine Coast, I pointed out that my primary source for sales data was SC realtor Gary Little’s incredible website. Over time as I began to understand more about real estate sales, I turned to other sources with the most important being the REBGV and its monthly stats package.

On November 11 in post #31 above, I offered a table and chart showing Benchmark, Median and Average prices for the SC since 2010. I pointed out that there are discrepancies between my SC sales sources. In a market the size of Vancouver, the differences wouldn’t be noticed; however, in a small market like the Sunshine Coast they should be kept in mind when looking at the data. I pointed out that the REBGV detached sales total includes all detached homes sales (regardless of value and land size) plus MOPs (mobile homes on pads) and may include property sales on Gambier and Keats Islands. Little, on the other hand, separates single detached and MOP sales ( I add them together in my stats) and I don’t think he includes Island sales. This difference is important to mention because it helps to explain why the two sources offer remarkably different median selling prices.

So, in October, the REBGV SC stats package shows 59 single detached home sales with a median selling price of $379,000. Little’s website stats page shows 51 detached home sales with a median selling price of $414,000. However, Little also shows there were 5 mobile home on pad sales with a median selling price of $118,000. Adding Little’s detached and MOP sale together gives 56 detached sales and combining the two would definitely drop that $414,000 figure.

I’m pointing this out because I have been mixing these stats sources in my own posts and the result may have had you scratching your head. The median sales price table and chart below uses Little’s median selling price and there is no point in changing that practice now. The HPI and Benchmark price data comes from the REBGV which explains why there is such a gulf between my median and benchmark selling price tables. We have to remember, too, that the number of “$1mill+” property sales each month can greatly impact the median selling price regardless if its Little’s or the REBGV’s figure. Okay, I think I’ve mentioned this enough times already so it should be clear now to those viewing my postings here at VanPeak.

The HPI and Benchmark Price show exactly the same trajectory and both rose slightly in 2014; although, they appear to be in a holding pattern now. From what I can see regarding the value of November detached property sales, I am expecting a slight rise in the Benchmark. Is this significant? Not according to VanPeak moderator RFM. I encourage one and all to read or reread his August 27th post, HPI? BFD!

SDH Sales to Listing Ratio

In the Part 1 post above, we see that overall SC SDH sales are reaching 2009 levels. In the chart below, we can see the same occurring with the SDH ‘Sales to Listing Ratio’. Year-to-date (Jan-Oct 2014) the ratio has reached 43% - only 2% off the 2009 year end total of 45%.

On a month-to-month basis August’s ratio was 66%; September’s jumped up to 77% and October fell back to 55%. The latter decline was due to the jump in new listings relative to those 59 sales. (Reminder: the Sales-to-Listing Ratio is calculated by dividing the number of sales by the number of new listing and multiplying the answer by 100).

You can see how the Sales-to-Listings Ratio (green line) has risen this year and is now close to the 2009 ratio. I learned something during the last few months – according to real estate boards, ratios between a buyers’ market (≥ 35%) and a sellers’ market (≤ 55% to 60%) indicate a “balanced” market (that's anywhere between the red lines). That being the case, it looks like the SC entered a “balanced” real estate market in the spring of 2007 and never escaped. Hmm, how does the substantive loss of home equity on the SC fit into this “balanced” market designation?

Finally, the REBGV SC charts showing all kinds of stuff since October 2012.