2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

Welcome to VanPeak, JK. Glad you didn't let my silence deter you from checking back...again...and again....

I have some thoughts on your post above, but will reply in another thread after I get my 'Nov SC Sales Stats' prepped and posted; the latter, hopefully, by Saturday at the latest. Thanks for taking the time to post, Jay Kay - appreciate you sharing your thoughts.

[Skook]

November 2014 SC Sales Stats

Total SC November real estate sales are down -31% compared to October, but no big deal because, “Hey, it’s November!”, and because sales in the last four months are the best on a year-over-year basis since 2009. We see total November sales up +37% vs Nov 2013; +24% vs Nov 2012 and Nov 2011 in the YOY table below. 2014 year-to-date shows 698 sales which is nearly 100 more than all of 2013 and by the end of December could match and possibly exceed all sales in 2012 and 2011. Oh, happy days!

Total residential sales-by-area continues to show Roberts Creek in the red for 2014 YTD vs YTD 2013; however, all other areas of the SC continue their positive march in the green. Remember though we’re talking sales not value and the latter continues to fall which is spurring those sales. So, if you want to join the party, keep dropping those list prices!!

Single Detached Home Sales

The REBGV reports there were 38 single detached home sales (Gary Little reports 37 and he may not be included the one November sale on Gambier Island). Of course, regardless if we use 38 or 37, the November figure is still the best since 2009 as the table directly below shows.

November detached sales on a year-over-year were positive for each market area except Gibsons. The latter’s sales were neutral compared to 2013 and negative when compared to Nov 2012 and Nov 2011; but , on a year-to-date basis, it’s green all the way for Gibsons and its those year-to-date sales that hold more weight in my opinion than those monthly year-over-year reports that the real estate boards love to shout (especially when sales are increasing).

Sales By Price Range

For whatever reason, in November and December it’s the higher priced properties that move on the Sunshine Coast. I am constantly reading that if you want to find good bargains then you should do your property search in those two months. Yes, there will be fewer listings; but, those selling may be the most desperate, too, and with fewer buyers about they just might accept that “relatively-speaking” low-ball offer you make. I think that’s what happened with that $950,000 November sale that I reported on here. There you go - another reason why some have more money to play with than others – they’re smart with it (which may explain why there were no sales above a million dollars).

So, we can now see those year-to-date % totals rising for property sales $500,000 and above. Mind you, it still has me scratching my head because if it's retirees buying these properties I can’t understand why they would want so much house and/or so much land. I guess they can hire someone to clean and maintain the property; but, those individuals are getting harder to find on the SC, too – yep, everybody’s getting grey even the plebs!

When I watched November’s sales unfolding and saw the prices being paid, I really expected to see the MLS Home Price Index and Benchmark Price to increase this month but it didn’t happen. The HPI dipped 1.1% points and this is reflected in the Benchmark Price which dropped $3,200. It’s not much of a drop at first glance, but in my opinion takes on more significance when you look at the November median sale price of $420,000 - up $6,000 from October. Strange, eh? This is why no one understands the HPI and why Garth Turner (The Greater Fool blog) refers to it as the “Frankenumber.”

Remember the real estate boards all say that it’s the HPI that denotes trends in the marketplace and we see it dipping now on the SC. The question is what will happen in the months ahead as the reality of dropping oil prices takes hold. We are all smiling at the gas pumps; but, we don’t know the overall economic impact on the country as a whole if those prices continue to fall and stick around well into 2015.

Sales to Listing Ratio

New single detached listings took a real dip in November compared to October and, in fact, were the lowest in 2014. That drop coupled with the month’s relatively good sales resulted in bumping up the sales-to-listings ratio to 68%. This increase in turn raised the year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio to 45% - exactly the same figure reached in 2009.

So, the SC real estate market is perfectly “balanced” (according to real estate boards) as it sits there between 35% and 55%. I think we will see more of the same in December since sales are starting off well and there have been next to nil new listings; but, beyond that is anyone’s guess. Will the SC’s seven years of falling prices be impossible to ignore especially for lower mainland buyers or will falling oil prices shock the Canadian economy to such an extent that everyone panics and retrenches or throws the major real markets into that long anticipated free fall? This will be interesting.

---

To conclude, here are the REBGV’s SC November charts.

[Skook]

Hey Everyone! Guess what time it is?

Why, it’s time for ‘Real Estate Reflections’ with SC Realtor Kenan MacKenzie! It’s seems like forever since I’ve shared MacKenzie’s thoughts on the state of the Sunshine Coast real estate market. His insightful report appears at the beginning of the month in the Coast Reporter’s 'Real Estate Weekly' insert.

So, without further ado...Kenan MacKenzie...

Quote:Market Update for the Month of November

Detached Sales are up 24.06 % over last year.

(Skook note: Sigh, oh great right off the top...now where did he get that number: 24.06%? It’s “point oh 6”, too...damn, I wish I could still drink. Oh hell, a glass of wine won’t kill me...I’ll be right back. Aw, that tastes good and will definitely help. Okay, Kenan, let’s look at the figures. In November, there were 38 detached home sales and in November 2013 there were 24 sales. Is that where you got that number? Because when I use Microsoft’s own Excel formula, =(38/24)-1, I get a whopping 58.3% increase over last year. Yep, 58.3% - now, isn't that a much better percentage to cheer about?)

Sunshine Coast Detached listings
There are currently 548 detached listings on the Sunshine Coast. This is up marginally from 2013 where in the same period we had 579 detached listings. Detached sales year –to- date ending November 30, 2014: there are 526, in 2013 there were 424 sales, in 2012 there were 450 and in 2011 there were 440 sales. The current market's hot price range is between$301,000 and $400,000, with 168 sales occurring in this price range. With the current sales pace this represents a ten month supply of listings.

(Skook note: I agree with Kenan’s detached “year-to-date” sales even though they don’t match my numbers. Kenan is likely using the REBGV totals whereas I have been using SC Realtor Gary Little’s figures and I am coming to the conclusion the difference is due to sales on Gambier and Keats Islands which Little may omit from Gibsons’ sales stats. Yep, the hot price range is definitely $300,000 - $399,999 which as of November 30th counted for 33.8% of 2014 sales.)

Sunshine Coast Attached Listing
There are 160 current attached listings. This is up slightly over 2013, where in the same period we had 157 attached listings. Attached sales this year to date ending November, 2014 there were 104; in 2013 there were 87 sales; in 2012 there were 85 sales and in 2011 there were 89 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents an 11 month supply of listings. Attached listing represents strata unit apartments, condos and townhouses. Attached property sales are up over the previous years.

(Skook note: Let’s see...Kenan gives us the sales figures ending November 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011 and then ends the paragraph with, “Attached property sales are up over the previous years.” Thank you, Kenan, otherwise I might have missed the obvious. Hmm, think I need to top up my mug of wine...)

Sunshine Coast Land listing
There are 421 bare land listing. This is up slightly from 2013 when we had 378 listings. Land sales year –to- date ending November, 2014: there were 61 sales, in 2013 there were 53 sales, in 2012 there were 61 sales and in 2011 there were 75 sales. With the current sales pace this represents a seventy-five month supply.

(Skook note: 75 month supply = 6 years 3 months. Let’s see... the pace is directly proportional to SC land being incredibly dirt cheap...so says my Folonari Valpolicella 2013...thank you very much.)

November sales - the highest over the last 4 years - the trend continues...

• $000 to $300,000 with 128 sales
  
• $301,000 to $400,000 with 168 sales
  
• $401,000 to $500,000 with 88 sales
  
• $501,000 to $600,000 with 59 sales
  
• $601,000 to $700,000 with 33 sales
  
• $701,000 to $ 800,000 with 23 sales
  
• $801,000 to $900,000 with 6 sales
  
• $901,000 to $1,000,000 with 8 sales
  
• 13 sales over a $1,001,000 this year
  

Just a note about the stats recorded above, if you are getting information from your Realtor these stats may be different. The Real Estate Board records stats two ways one by the date the sold is processed ie the day a Buyer removes all their subjects from the contract and the other is by the date of the contract is signed by the parties. I have chosen to do the stats by the date of the contract. The Board puts information out to the Realtors by the process date, both will record all sales. Both ways of recording the stats the market on the Sunshine Coast is up 24.06 % over the previous years.

(Skook note: Kenan tells me something I didn’t know – that the Real Estate Board “records stats two ways”. He says this could affect the info given to you by a Realtor. My question is, “How does this affect the REBGV’s monthly stats? Could it result in some property sales being counted twice, at least in the short term? I wonder if this explains why almost each month Gary Little has been correcting the 2012 SC sales data on his website stats page – has the REBGV been catching past duplicated sales? As for Kenan’s last two sentences – there’s that 24.06% again – I can only say, “What?” And, no, it’s not the wine; although, I have over reheated my dinner and the beets are burnt.)

Talking with a few of my colleagues the market does not seem to be taking the seasonal break. November and October were great months for sales, seems like December is going to be busy as well. The inventory is down from August by 23 % giving those Sellers less competition to compete for the Buyers. We had a spike in sales between 600 and 700 very quiet on listings over $800,000.

(Skook note: I do believe I said more or less the same in my own November stats report above – hopefully, I was more lucid...LOL.)

If the Sale trend continues at the present pace 2015 will be a more balanced market for the Sellers.

(Skook Note: Kenan's own sentence highlighting here. Months ago, Kenan stopped talking about the return of an SC “Seller’s” market. I’ve just cruised through his previous “Reflections” and this is his first mention of a possible “balanced” market for the SC. Hmm, did he read my December 1st post? Regardless, I would say “balanced it is for 2015 and Kenan has ended on just the right note. I think I'm going to drink to that.)

Oh dear, I don’t feel so good. RFM, I need hair of dog.

[RFM]

Hair of the Dog? Folonari-Valpolicella? Real Estate Reflections? What next?

You keep up this torrid pace of updating threads and soon we’ll need to set a radar trap!

To help you better focus on what’s really important, I offer this statistically jam-packed and wonderful inquiry into - Ta Da!

“What's the Difference? Reducing the Effects of Exposure to Reality Television Shows Displaying Excessive Alcohol Use on Dutch Adolescents' Drinking Intentions”

I am providing this source reference so that you can see really pithy reflections. Not just some warmed over leftovers served up by some ‘realtor’ as ‘food for thought.’

Speaking of food - a suggestion: to avoid excessive ‘light headedness’ while preparing your next report, may I suggest that you pair your Folonari with one of the following?

1. Grilled vegetable salad with balsamic vinegar; 2. Raclette; or, 3. Crepes stuffed with vegetables, pistachios and two cheeses, recipes for which you can find here.

[Skook]

Oh gawd, RFM, you're right - I gotta get me a life.

Man, where do you dig up this stuff?

Quote:“What's the Difference? Reducing the Effects of Exposure to Reality Television Shows Displaying Excessive Alcohol Use on Dutch Adolescents' Drinking Intentions”

Great recipes, tho. Thanks for the link!

[Skook]

December 2014 SC Sales Stats

Like spring in the rest of Canada, you had to have wondered if this post was ever coming. Well, here it is; so, let’s finally put the 2014 Sunshine Coast real estate baby to bed.

I began this 2014 sales stats thread on Feb 28th (yeah, yeah, I was late at the beginning, too) with SC Realtor Kenan MacKenzie’s January 24th ‘Real Estate Reflections’ in which he shared his colleagues’ thoughts for the year ahead. Well, they were right. They said the “phones were ringing off the hook” and that “January was the busiest in six years” and that the “markets are on the turn.”

A quick run back through the 2014 stats shows that for most months single detached home sales matched or bettered sales going back to 2009 and in some cases back to 2007 which was the year real estate collapsed on the SC. Did December do as well? Darling, sales were marrrr-vellous, simply marrrr-vellous.

December total sales were up +15% over November with detached sales jumping +19%; but, it’s the December’s year-over-year percentage changes that will blow your mind: 2014 vs 2013 up +91%, vs 2012 (a real bummer December) up a whopping +340%, and up +110% vs 2011. Yes, there were likely a lot more presents under the agents’ Christmas trees in 2014.

Comparing total sales, 2014 rose 26% over 2013, 21% vs 2012, and 22% vs 2011 – lots of green to match what remains of lower SC rain forest, yes-siree. As for the five SC market areas, lots of green there too except for Roberts Creek which saw a slight decrease in sales vs the year before.

Now, we get to those single detached home sales and look at the historical numbers! You have to go back all the way to December 2003 to find a month with better sales. I don’t know about you, but I feel like dancing.

If we break down those detached sales into market areas, it’s all positive in December even in Roberts Creek! And look at Sechelt’s December 2014 vs December 2012 percentage change – up +1800% - too funny. Of course, that’s what you get when you only sell 1 mobile home in a whole month (Dec 2012). After seeing that percentage, I’ve decided I won’t be carrying this percentage change experiment into 2015; you need a much larger volume of sales to avoid these goofy percentage changes.

Yes, after a bleak 7 years those rising detached homes sales were welcomed by most; however, there’s a caveat – while sales rose, home values dropped. I mentioned many times in my stats posts that buyers were looking for bargains – they wanted the best bang for their buck and the Sales-by-Price Range data bore this out. For all twelve months, the majority of homes sold in the $300,000 - $399,999 range and more than a few of those sales occurred after numerous price drops. The $200,000 - $299,999 range occupied 2nd spot during the first 4 months and in August. The $400,000 - $499,999 took over 2nd spot in May and during the last half of the year where it made up ground; of course, many of those price range sales came after numerous price drops, too.

So, how did the year end? The $300,000 - $399,999 range accounted for 34% of SC detached home sales, the $200,000 to $299,999 range had 15% of sales, and add only another 2.8% and the $400,000 to $499,999 range managed to sneak into second spot with 17.8% of sales.

So, December was this incredible month for SDH sales (44) which was 7 more than November’s (37), but look at the December’s median sale price in the table below ($383,134) and that’s despite 3 ‘$mill+’ home sales valued at $1.45mill, $1.63mill and $1.8mill; by the way, November had no home sales above $1mill and no MOP sales (manufactured on pad), but the homes sold were in the higher price ranges (14 sales between $150,000 to $380,000 and 22 sales between $400,000 to $950,000).

The source for these median sales price figure has been SC Realtor Gary Little and god bless the man for his incredible website. Now as I mention below the table, Little does not include MOP sales in his median price (he does include $mill+ home sales). In December, there were two MOP sales valued at $19,000 and $262,000 with the latter more expensive than the three lowest single detached home sales on lots ($155,000; $165,000; and, $193,500). The REBGV includes both MOPs and ‘$mill+’ sales in its median sales price.

Something that has always annoyed me about SC single detached home sales stats is this inclusion of ‘$mill+’ home sales because despite their few numbers they can hugely distort the median and average selling price figures. So, I have done some number crunching and here’s the result:

• Gary Little gives us a December median sales price of $383,134 by excluding MOP sales and including ‘$mill+’ home sales.
  
• The REBGV gives us a December median sales price of $373,134 by including both MOP sales and ‘$mill+’ home sales.
  
• Skook (moi) is going to include MOP sales but exclude those ‘$1mill+’ sales, so December’s median sales price is...drum roll please...$364,000.
  

Yep, my median sales price shows a $60,000 drop from November – well, doesn’t that dampen the cheers over those December detached home sales. IMHO, it is my recalculated median sales that is of value for the majority of SC home sellers and you’ll be able to see why when I begin posting the 2015 sales stats (one reason why I am sooooo far behind..LOL)



Those fantastic December sales figures aren’t reflected in the HPI or Benchmark Price either with barely a budge from November.

December’s sales-to-listings ratio was a whopping 209% - a reflection of the month’s miserly 22 new listings relative to sales. This month’s ratio helped move the year into mid-balanced market territory. A look at the historical table helps to clarify that relationship between sales and new listings and how they affect the sales-to-listing ratio.

I am putting together a package of 2014 year end tables and charts and will post those in a separate thread. Stay tuned.

December’s $mill+ property sales are posted separately here.
December’s Lot sales are posted separately here.

---

To conclude, here are the REBGV SC December 2014 sales charts (click on image to enlarge in a new tab and click on image again to further enlarge).

   

[JimmyWW]

Skook, thanks so much as always. FWIW, things on my little island look the same as this, I suspect: 13 sales since Xmas (approx. 22% of outstanding inventory, so a lot) but "right" pricing is a factor. I have mentioned before that I knew of 3-4 listings that have been on for seven+ years on Bowen; I just heard of an eighth which has come down from 2.1 mil to 1.275 mil since 2008 and still no takers! Thank you as always for your great work; I wish you all the best of health, and everything else, in 2015. Jimmy