2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats

[Skook]

Apr-July 2014 VIREB Sales Stats - Part 1

Make yourself a big pot of coffee because I am posting 4 months of stats all at once (April - July). I will post the data in two parts and realize this is a lot to wade through, but it is the best way for me to handle it and thereby get caught up in one swoop.

I will try to offer some analysis of what I am seeing; however, I will keep it to a minimum given the amount of data and the fact I am sure viewers are capable of understanding and seeing patterns in the sales figures on their own.

2014 Month to Month Sales:
The VIREB market started the year with all cylinders firing. January was up +5% over December; however, by February and March total sales leapt ahead +24% and +34%. There was a bit of breather in April but May saw sales rise +21%. June sales hinted a change could be coming when single detached sales dropped -3% compared to May. July’s results reinforced this view that the market was turning when again single detached sales dropped -3% month-to-month and total sales dropped -2% compared to June - the first negative reading for total sales since December versus November, 2013.

Monthly Sales YOY &YTD Comparisons:
Starting with the April stats, I decided to make a change and now the year-over-year and year-to-date comparisons all relate back to the current reporting month. So, it’s Apr2014 vs Apr2013 (1YChg), Apr2014 vs Apr 2012 (2YChg), Apr2014 vs Apr2011 (3YChg), and Apr 2014 vs Apr2010 (4YChg). I thought this might be a more relevant (or at least a more interesting) calculation to perform then doing a year vs year percentage change calculation which is what I was doing before (Apr2014 vs Apr2013, Apr2013 vs Apr2012, Apr2012 vs Apr2011, and Apr2011 vs Apr2010).

Calculating the percentage change this way shows that April and May 2014 sales did not fare as well as some previous years; however, that was not the case for June and July sales which except for 2010 exceeded previous years’ sales.

2014 Market Statistics:
The table is easy enough to go through on your own. What is worth pointing out is the “Units Listed” and “Active Listings” percentage change (%Chg) figure which is almost entirely in red across the table for every property type in every month. These negative readings began to appear back in August 2013, so for the last year buyers in the VIREB market have been pursuing fewer listed properties (all types) than in 2013 and late 2012. With such a scenario, this could lead to price increases and movement towards a “sellers” market. As we move through the data, we’ll see if this has in fact been the case in the VIREB.

2014 Single Family Unit Sales:
On a month-to-month basis, we see how buoyant the island market was until June when sales dipped by -3% which is the first negative reading since last December. This downturn was reinforced with July’s -3% sales drop. These back-to-back negative figures could well indicate the selling season has more or less come to end for 2014.

The SFH Sales & Comparisons tables are straight forward so I will leave you to go through the April to July results on your own. You can keep in mind the drop in “Units Listed” and “Active Listings” that I mention above when you look at the Average and Median Sale Prices - have these prices been impacted by a lower supply of properties? My thought is that it depends on the market area with only Campbell River showing the most consistent increase in average sale price month to month; however, even that area shows red when it comes to the median sale price month to month.

SFH - Home Price Index and Benchmark Price:
According to the boards that use this reporting system, the HPI and Benchmark Price offer the best means of denoting trends in the marketplace. This certainly seems to hold true for the Sunshine Coast when I looked at that market’s data. On the island, it’s obvious that overall the market is more active and prices have risen compared to previous years, but not by much. The area that interests me is the “Islands”. If we look at the 3Y%Chg in Benchmark prices, there has been a significant drop from -7.8% to -14.3% depending on the reporting month. One might be tempted to conclude that living a life heavily influenced by the price and schedule of a BC Ferry might be losing its lustre.

Single Family Home Sales-to-Listing Ratio:
The last time the VIREB as a whole could boast of having a “sellers” market was prior to 2007 when the sales-to-listing ratio was equal to and greater than 55% (Note: the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says a “sellers” market exists at 55-60%, so I’ll be generous and set the bar at 55%).

So, on a month-to-month basis this year only June and July show there existed a “sellers” market even though the SFH sales dropped -3% each of those months - it all hinges on that relationship between the number of units sold and the number of units listed each month and the latter has been dropping for the last year as I mentioned above.

On a month-to-month basis we see that the year-to-date sales-to-listing ratio had a nice 3% increase from April to June; but, July’s results shows that the VIREB market has lost momentum. I have a feeling this will be as high as the ratio will go in 2014 and the year may end around the 47% mark. I can’t explain why - it’s just a feeling; so, I have a very good chance of being wrong…LOL.

to be continued…