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Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
07-04-2014, 06:50 AM, (This post was last modified: 07-05-2014, 11:05 AM by JimmyWW.)
#1
Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
Guys

Update on where I'm looking - headlines followed by very brief, kindergarten-level analysis, ie nowhere near Skook's incredible levels of scrutiny:

Headlines:
- inventory at a three year-high (85 properties for sale in my search area) EDIT** - now at 87 as of Saturday 7/5/14...**
- one or two properties now on offer at 10% below assessment
- majority still at 20-30% above assessed; one (ha!) on for 150% above assessed
- some evidence of certain properties reducing by up to 35% and still not selling

Minor details:

<$600K bracket now accounts for >25% of all listings. This bracket has been growing by one listing a day for past ten days as prices reduce and new properties come on.
$600-$800K bracket is now also >25% of listings, for same reason
One or two >$1m where the sellers are obviously not listening/don't care/are badly advised. See above-mentioned property at 150% above assessment; another has come down in price by >50% to $1,288,000 in the last year or so and still isn't selling...

I've decided to post now because I note with interest that Garth Turner is advising those outside urban areas in Canada to consider buying following 30-40% price declines in these areas - are we reaching a tipping point in the southern gulfs? Are we approaching the time to buy?

I *think* the average reduction in price over last 12 months is probably 5-10%, which would say there's a long way to go down yet; but in some instances, we appear to be seeing signs of seller distress.

Any thoughts out there from others?
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07-09-2014, 12:12 PM,
#2
RE: Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
(07-04-2014, 06:50 AM)JimmyWW Wrote: Any thoughts out there from others?

It is nowhere near the bottom.
At the bottom, if you were to buy a place, EVERY one of your friends and relatives would call you an idiot.
A true bottom does not V. It falls off a cliff and scrapes along the bottom.
For years... that is when the flippers shrivel.
By the time they pay for costs, taxes, utilities, Water/sewer/garbage.
They finally either take any offer to get out from that or hand it back to the bank or township office.
That is why you should be looking at the tax sale volumes.
In the 80's, there were 5 pages of tax sales in the newspaper in a town of 100G.
The goal is to buy LOW... not 10-20% off.
That barely covers RE Fees, Transfer fees and Lawyers.
I do think that land will get down to 10 cents on the dollar and rough property 20%. Luxury 35% of assessments.
I look at the Ontario credit downgrade, the Debt load of the Japanese and the precarious Chinese Banking system.
We are a popcorn fart away from an unstoppable value avalanche.
Cannot see that property is going to be the exception in revaluation.
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09-11-2014, 04:51 AM,
#3
RE: Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
Quick update from where I am looking:

- although inventory is down by 15%, sub-$600K segment now accounts for 31% of all listings, up from 25% when I first posted in the summer.
- sub-$800K segment now accounts for 27% of all listings, up from approx 20% in the summer.
- within these segments, some properties have been reduced by 15-20% and are still not selling despite my receiving verbal assurances from realtors that "an offer has been made, and that one will disappear within weeks", so...
- prices appear to be much more sticky at the top end, which suggests to me these are vacation properties/second homes which the owners don't have to sell.

BTW has anyone else on here noticed the phenomenon of shadow inventory? This definitely exists where I am looking. In other words either a) the property is not listed but is for sale by word of mouth outside the realtor market or b) the realtor carries "for sale" details on their website without a corresponding MLS listing.

Is there a requirement to list on MLS? Just curious... this seems to be a neat way, if correct, of making a market look healthier than it really is.

Your Eastern correspondent, hoping to return to BC one day -


JimmyWW
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09-11-2014, 09:58 AM, (This post was last modified: 09-11-2014, 10:04 AM by javak.)
#4
RE: Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
(09-11-2014, 04:51 AM)JimmyWW Wrote: BTW has anyone else on here noticed the phenomenon of shadow inventory? This definitely exists where I am looking. In other words either a) the property is not listed but is for sale by word of mouth outside the realtor market or b) the realtor carries "for sale" details on their website without a corresponding MLS listing.

Hello JimmyWW,

Are there other web sources for the shadow inventory you know of? I see the occasional listing Craigslist and Kijigity (sp) ... but they are usually listed on MLS. MLS is a racket of course. But, thats capitalism for you.

I have noticed prices dipping in the sub 600K category by about 5% per year over the last three... but, I don't believe these properties are worth half that. Especially in the context of drop in travel, suppressed interest rates, recession creeping in again, and potential for war.

Cheers ~ ...Javak
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09-11-2014, 10:04 AM,
#5
RE: Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
Hey Jimmy,

Thanks for the update - informative as always.

As for listing, you can enter into an agreement with your agent to give him or her exclusive rights to market your property and it will not be put up on MLS. The home owner needs to be aware of important issues with such an agreement. You can get the details from this Real Estate Council of BC webpage - scroll down to 'Types of Listing Contracts.'
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09-11-2014, 10:27 AM, (This post was last modified: 09-11-2014, 11:31 AM by Skook.)
#6
RE: Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
Quote:I have noticed prices dipping in the sub 600K category by about 5% per year over the last three... but, I don't believe these properties are worth half that. Especially in the context of drop in travel, suppressed interest rates, recession creeping in again, and potential for war.

Cheers ~ ...Javak

Hi Javak,

I noticed it in two contexts: one, listings on realtor's websites which were NOT replicated on MLS; secondly, in physically driving around the area (with my wife at the wheel :-)) and my hand on my cell-phone, trying to find properties which had a FOR SALE sign outside on MLS and finding them only on Realtor's websites.

Skook's comment below provides more insight.

Cheers -
JimmyWW

(09-11-2014, 10:04 AM)Skook Wrote: Hey Jimmy,

Thanks for the update - informative as always.

As for listing, you can enter into an agreement with your agent to give him or her exclusive rights to market your property and it will not be put up on MLS. The home owner needs to be aware of important issues with such an agreement. You can get the details from this Real Estate Council of BC webpage - scroll down to 'Types of Listing Contracts.'


Aha, sir Skook! I thought so, and you've just confirmed it. There's no way of measuring the level of this inventory, but anecdotally I could add 5-10% to the existing "official" MLS stats... mmm (*strokes chin and puffs on pipe*)Big Grin
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09-20-2014, 11:20 AM,
#7
RE: Southern Gulfs - worm turning? Tipping Point?
quick one - three most recent listings in my area have all come on very close to assessment (2/3% above) - more or less the first time I've seen this... a sign of things to come? Skook, if time and strength allow, it would be interesting to get a stats update in (say) end of October for you-know-where just to see if there's been movement. I hope treatment is going well and that you are feeling OK. Jimmy
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