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Sunshine Coast – 2014 Real Estate Market Summary
04-06-2015, 07:38 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-06-2015, 08:14 AM by Skook.)
#1
Sunshine Coast – 2014 Real Estate Market Summary
I’ve pulled together has much Sunshine Coast 2014 year-end and historical sales data as I could find and created a number of tables and charts for your viewing and reviewing enjoyment.

Let’s begin with that source of all data sources – the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver of which the Sunshine Coast is a card-carrying member. The REBGV informs us via the year-to-date total on the 'MLS® Sales Facts' sheet in the December monthly stats package (pg 6) that 584 detached homes changed hands. This number includes MOPs (manufactured on pads) and ‘$mill+’ property sales. As well, 114 attached sales took place (42 townhomes/duplexes + 72 condos). We can also confirm the 2013 year-to-date total on the same page: detached = 454, attached = 98 (44 townhomes/duplexes+ 54 condos).

The chart below shows the REBGV’s Sunshine Coast detached home sales from 2000 – 2014. It is commonly believed that life is a series of seven year cycles; if so, then 2014 could herald a new cycle for SC real estate. Yes, a new seven year real estate cycle coupled with the lowest mortgage rates in history. At one time, you could only dream of or hope for such a winning combination and now its reality – can life possibly have more meaning or get any better than this? Nope, especially not when real estate is propping up our local and national economies - it just makes me so proud to be Canadian.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1073]

I use more than one source for my SC monthly sales stats. SC Realtor© Gary Little has been my regular “go-to” source since he has stats posted on the first day of every month. He also prepares a mid and year-end SC stats report and this can be accessed off his regular website stats page. I have also turned to Realtors© Joni Selmes and Gail Brachat (they’re a realty team) for their year-end stats report. I have also taken a look at Realtor© Kenan MacKenzie’s 2014 sales totals; and, this year I discovered the Robinson Group (mom and son team) has posted a ten year sales summary for the SC.

So, I put together the small table below showing the 2014 year-end sales data from all these sources including my own figures and all I can say is, “I win, I win!”

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1074]

My totals come from Gary Little and we don’t match which tells me he’s performed some last minute corrections. How can the Robinsons be off the REBGV detached total by 22 sales? What’s missing? It’s not MOPs because that year-end total (via Little) was 32. Joni & Gail and MacKenzie agree with each other’s detached figure but differ from the REBGV by 14 sales. And, look at those two REBGV attached totals – the board can’t even agree with itself! As noted, one total comes from the December Sales sheet in the monthly stats package and the other from the ‘Sales by Price Range’ table in its SC monthly chart package.

Now, every week Joni & Gail post a weekly sales review on their website stats page which I always look at. I’ve noted they report sales on Gambier and Keats Islands along with their Gibsons sales – could this explain those 14 missing detached sales? Did I go through every weekly report again? Oh, yes I did because I know how to have fun. I tallied up all those sales and the result is below.

   

Son-of-a-gun, 14 detached sales; but despite all my wishful thinking, I think this is strictly a coincidence. I am under the impression that the REBGV includes island sales in the overall Gulf Island sales which also appear on the MLS Sales Fact Sheet in the monthly stats package. On the REBGV website, there is a ‘Sunshine Coast/Gulf Islands’ page under ‘Our Community’ and they seem to be treated as separate entities.

The problem with all these sources is that none of them categorically states their terms of reference and that goes for the REBGV as well. As a result, I or you cannot be 100% certain where those Gambier and Keats Island sales are tallied.

So, what could account for those 12/14/22 detached sales differences? I am sure more than a few represent sales that have collapsed that the REBGV has not publicly accounted for; after all, it is not going to re-release its corrected monthly stats packages. I know almost every month Little makes data corrections going back 1 even 2 years – you would notice this too if you kept a regular tally of his stats postings. So, Realtors know when stats change but not the public. In my opinion, I think the REBGV should issue a year-end report with any and all stat corrections for every market and make it available to everyone.

Anyway, for the SC it’s not a big deal in the grand scheme of things just a tad annoying when you like things to balance out. And, It doesn’t seem to bother the Realtors© who merrily report their numbers and are proud of them – so there.

Right, as mentioned Gary Little offers a year-end report which you can download by clicking on a link above his graphs on his stats page. I’ve taken his 2014 report and combined it with his previous reports for 2013/2012/2011 and created the table below – twice. The difference between the two is the ‘%Chg’ calculation and that is explained below each table. I thought you might find the two comparisons interesting. Thankfully, Excel did all the work and all I had to do was add the colour...LOL.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1076]

The next combination shows the 2014 year-to-date detached sales-by-price range for properties under $1mill – worthwhile information to know when selling your home and you want to drive your listing agent crazy.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1077]


Next up, the sales-to-listing ratio for detached sales – is the market hot or not and if hot in whose favour: the buyer or seller? Well, the year ended with no clear winner (it was balanced); but, there’s momentum to build on going into 2015. Let’s see now...how many employees at Wakefield Construction lost jobs? How many seniors (which is like all of Sechelt) want to downsize this year? Who has to flog their rec property because their oil stocks tanked? Remember, the ratio is dependent on the relationship of sales to new listings each and every month. Really, this is just so much fun.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1078]

(We can see that possible new seven-year cycle reflected in the data table to the left, too.)

I have come across more than a few real estate musings that mention detached sales relative to the ‘ten year average.’ I haven’t seen this extended to the Sunshine Coast so I thought I would come up with my own data so that I could muse, too. According to my calculations using the handy-dandy ‘Excel percentage-change formula’ (shown below each table), 2014 was +4.1% above the ten year average, 2013 was -21.5% below the ten year average (ouch) and 2012 was -23.0% below the ten year average (double ouch). To be perfectly honest, I have no idea if I have done this correctly. I think so based on what I read online about stocks and moving averages. I am counting on you, loyal reader, to let me know if I have erred.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1079]

I have a thing for land sales on the Sunshine Coast and I think it has to do with being stuck behind thousands of logging trucks over the years as I travelled down the coast from Pender. So much land cleared that sits unsold and undeveloped. Well, all coasters might pay a big price for those missing trees with the lack of snow pack this year. You might want to start praying for lots of rain to keep the drinking water reservoirs topped up.

The year ended with 387 vacant land listings. Some big holdings up in Pender that were taken off the market in December, so I’m expecting land listings to grow. So, using 2014’s sales pace (5.7/mth), 387 listings represents a 68-month supply or a tad over 5½ years. Hey, it’s good to have a choice and the time to make up your mind, isn’t it?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1080]

I’m starting to run out of gas – much too much thinking required here. Next up is the median selling price and benchmark price data which I think I’ll let you wander through. I had something to say about the data used for calculating the SC median selling price in my December 2014 stats post which you might find interesting – check below the price-by-sales range data.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1081]

Finally, yes! I have created a series of charts based on SC Realtors© Joni & Gail’s ‘Historical Glimpse Sunshine Coast 2000 to 2014’ sales report. This ‘Historical Glimpse’ is the same as their ‘Historical Glimpse Sunshine Coast 2000 to 2013’ only with 2014 data tacked on; therefore, this year’s ‘Historical Glimpse’ presents the same mistakes as last year’s ‘Historical Glimpse’.

The big mistake is at Year 2000 where they report 184 detached sales and 46 waterfront sales. Add those two together gives you a total of 230 detached sales. Now, scroll back to that first REBGV table in this thread and what does it give for year 2000 sales? Yes, 415 and I checked that figure twice first via the December 2000 stats package and then with the December 2001 stats package. My guess is that Joni & Gail used the sales data from one market only – maybe Sechelt? So, I corrected that 2000 year in the first table below using REBGV’s 2000 data (415 minus J&G’s 46 waterfront sales = 369).

The other ‘noticeable’ mistake occurs at Year 2006 – the row total is wrong. It should read 987 and not 948. Any other discrepancies aren’t worth bothering with given that we’re dealing with REBGV sales data – as long as we’re in the ball park that’s all that matters, right?! Other than that, I think the charts are pretty, colourful and end this post on an up note and for that I am truly grateful because I am Canadian and real estate is propping up my local and national economies – I’m sorry, did I mention that before?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1082]

******************************

As promised, here are the links to the various 2014 year-end sales reports used in this post:

You can find Gary Little’s 2014 downloadable sales report above the graphs on his stats page. Little is affiliated with Royal LePage Sunshine Coast.

Joni & Gail’s ‘Historical Glimpse Sunshine Coast 2000 to 2014’ can be downloaded from their weekly review stats page. It will be there unless they’ve taken it down to correct. The ladies are affiliated with Sutton West Coast Realty.

SC Realtor© Kenan MacKenzie’s year-end stats totals can be gleaned from his December 2014 sales report posted on his blog. MacKenzie is affiliated with the shiny, new Royal LePage Sussex created from the dull, old Prudential Sussex Realty.

The Robinson Group’s ‘Ten Years Real Estate Sales in Review’ can be found posted to one of their gazillion websites – lord, how many do two people need? What with tweeting on twitter, posting on Facebook, updating all their websites and buzzing the coast with a drone, it’s no wonder they hired an assistant. Mom, son, shiny new assistant and drone are affiliated with Sutton West Coast Realty.

The REBGV’s monthly stats package can be downloaded from its main website page – just look for the first News Release of the month and click on it – it will have a link to the .pdf file. You can also download the current and past stats pdf files from the ‘News & Statistics’ page.

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I've just realized I've forgotten to include word on SC '$mill+' property sales; however, all it not lost as it would just be a repeat of my December 2014 post.


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Reply
04-07-2015, 07:20 AM,
#2
RE: Sunshine Coast – 2014 Real Estate Market Summary
There you have it! Skook, the ‘gold standard’ in real-estate-sales’ analysis, reporting and presentation, has spoken!

What do we see? Obviously, there was pent up demand on the Sunshine Coast; just waiting for an acceptable equilibrium between supply and demand and most important, price.

As for the rest of the lower mainland, despite many views (including mine!) that the market is set to burst, sellers found buyers willing to pay current prices, meaning these prices were acceptable in the marketplace as it exists.

Low interest rates, foreign money, delusional sellers, oblivious buyers, pundits, shills and hucksters. It’s all part of the messy goo that is driving this market. Stay tuned!
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