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2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
04-14-2015, 04:05 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-14-2015, 04:08 PM by Skook.)
#1
2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
I am three months late starting this thread, but this has its advantages. I have been able to cruise through a few SC Realtor newsletters, blogs, Twitter and Facebook feeds to really get a sense of how the 2015 market is unfolding. Who better to tell it like it is than those boots on the ground slogging away in the trenches day after day wiping the sweat from their brow. As a nation, we owe them so much for they are in the vanguard that leads us towards a brave new world. A brave new world that sees real estate supplanting manufacturing and resource extraction (mining, oil and gas) as the economic engine powering our national economy.

So, here...here is what the vanguard sees...here is what the vanguard writes...and we...we humbly gather together their pearls...

Quote:2015 is all about taking advantage of the great deals on the Sunshine Coast and the great rates.
The Robinson Group, January 22, 2015

Okay, that was a pretty, piddling pearl, but I cracked open a lot of shells...how’s this one:

Quote:The numbers are looking fabulous for this spring so far. New listings are continuing to roll in and the number of price changes is remaining steady.
Joni&Gail, April 2, 2015

Meh, still not so pearlish? What about this one:

Quote:Welcome to 2015! We started the year on the right foot with increased sales for both detached homes and rural land for sale. The recent drop in the overnight lending rate to 0.75% along with a low exchange on the Canadian loonie we have continued increase in sales on the Sunshine Coast.
Russ & Ria Qureshi and Terry Murphy, February 3, 2015

Yes! There’s a little meat with the potatoes: bank rate and value of the dollar equated to sales on the SC. It’s a start.

Okay, well, there weren’t as many pearls out there as I thought. But...I have saved the best for the last. From the one who has been ringing the clarion month after month, year after year in the Coast Reporter Real Estate Weekly, we are gently guided from the microeconomic to the macroeconomic, from the local to the national in this unprecedented transition. The social insights and economic predictions – all are gladly given so we need not fear the future.

Quote:In active listings we are seeing a steady decline over previous years. This is likely a sign that we are heading for a more balanced market. The interesting note is land sales are up by 77% over the next highest sales volume in 4 years. Good bare land sales are important. They mean jobs, home construction, with multiplying opportunities for employment; in short it represents economic growth. With the falling oil prices, the Bank of Canada will respond and has responded with monetary loosening i.e.: the drop in interest rate. Watch over the next few months because I believe the Federal Government will be very careful to keep our economy rolling by providing stimulus.

Also, the market will continue to be well served by the baby boomers who are following through on their dreams of moving to the Sunshine Coast. I personally believe we are moving into an up-cycle and this will bring a greater movement of people to the Coast. Everyone desires to live in paradise.
Kenan MacKenzie, Real Estate Reflections, April 3, 2015

Aw, paradise...but, if paradise exists before everyone lives in it what happens if everyone arrives? Will it still be paradise, Kenan? Won’t we then have to start looking for a new paradise...and then another new paradise and then another and another. Wait, that’s it isn’t it? That is the new economy...man’s constant and never ending search for paradise on earth and the money dished out to get there again and again and again...

Well, then let’s get this new seven year cycle started...

******************************

I hope to make the first stats post tomorrow. In the meantime, I encourage you to read Garth Turner’s latest blog post ‘Undeniable’ at The Greater Fool. It’s about numbers...sales stats numbers...and how they’re reported.

I read Garth Turner (former Tory MP who people either love or hate) because first off he amuses me – he’s actually a very funny man. Second, he often says something to make me pause and think while I keep in mind his current profession and his background.

In a recent post, I included this image...

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1106]

There you go, just a handful of Realtors© and each one shows different results for 2014’s SC real estate sales; however, they all share a common denominator – they say their source is the REBGV. So, as I said no one’s perfect, everyone does the best they can. Just keep that table above and Turner’s post in the back of your mind as we go through this year’s sales stats together.


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04-15-2015, 08:04 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-15-2015, 08:07 AM by Skook.)
#2
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Skook's 2015 stats changes:

I experimented last year with the ‘%Chg’ calculation in the tables. In July, I turned the calculation from a year-to-year (2014vs2013, 2013vs2012, etc.) to a current year vs year calculation (2014vs2013, 2014vs2012, etc.). I had got the idea from the VIREB and it seemed like a good move. However, after viewing the crazy high percentages for six months (because sales volume is too low) I’ve decided to go back to the year-to-year ‘%Chg’ calculation.

I recalculated the Sunshine Coast single detached median sales price going back to 2012. This is the major reason I am late posting the 2015 stats. To date, I have used SC Realtor Gary Little’s median sales price. He, like the REBGV, includes ‘$1mill+’ property sales in his calculation; however, I believe this inclusion exaggerates the median (and average) sales price. This is especially critical for those listing their homes when prices are dropping. I will mention this change again when I go to list the median sales price tables and charts.

******************************
Jan-Feb-Mar 2015 SC Sales Stats

I’m posting three months of stats at one go and to make this easier on you and me I will do so in over a few days.

As usual, I’ll begin with monthly total sales by type data tables showing the 2015 month to month sales and percentage changes. This is followed by the sales by type data year-over-year comparisons (2011-2015) for January, February and March.
January 2014 saw +55% in sales vs 2013 and the upward trend continues in 2015 with its +11% increase vs 2014. February and March 2014 both saw decreases in sales volume vs 2013; however, 2015 has turned that on its head and substantially with Feb sales up +41% vs 2014 and March up a +64% vs a year ago.

This three months of data definitely support Realtor Kenan MacKenzie’s (and others) view that the latter part of 2014 heralded a turnaround for the SC. If this is the start of a new seven year cycle, I believe it is one based on falling SC home prices and falling mortgage rates. However, its continuance will depend on how the unfolding current oil shock ripples through the national economy. As well, Canadians household debt had now reached a level higher than that held by Americans just prior to their 2009 financial collapse. Will we realize this year we can’t take on any more; or, will our mad dance continue?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1107]
Data source: http://www.garylittle.ca

The SC total sales chart below nicely illustrates how total volume dropped overall from 2011 to 2013 and then turned around in 2014. The March 2015 great leap upward may portend great sales in the months ahead, but not prices because the latter will be influenced by the number of active sales listings and how desperate sellers are to move their properties. Believe me, listing price drops are continuing in 2015.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1108]
Data source:www.garylittle.ca

As for residential sales by area (tables above), January started slowly for both Gibsons and Halfmoon Bay areas on a year-to-year basis; however, Roberts Creek took off like a rocket and continues to far outpace 2014 sales – March YTD (18 sales) up +500% vs 2014 YTD (3 sales). In February and March, all market areas are in the green with total Jan-Mar YTD sales up +47% vs 2014.

Single Detached Home Sales:

Look at those historical sales tables! Jan 2015 sales – you have to go back to 2003 for a match. Feb 2015 – not so exciting but up substantially over last year. March 2015 – best in eight years.

I’ll let you work your way through the single detached home sales by area tables for the last three months with their year-over-year and YTD year-over-year figures. My data source is SC Realtor Gary Little; however, unlike Little, I am including MOP sales – hence Gibsons Jan SDH sales = 7+1(MOP). Those MOP sales are included in the YTD totals. By including MOP sales, I match the REBGV single detached home sales monthly data.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1109]

To be cont'd...


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04-16-2015, 07:52 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-16-2015, 07:57 AM by Skook.)
#3
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
2015 SC Monthly RE Stats – Part 2

Detached Sales by Price Range:

Next up...the tables and charts showing the distribution of single detached home sales by price range (below $1million). My data source is the ‘Sunshine Coast Sales’ table in the REBGV’s monthly Sunshine Coast chart package. I create my monthly tables and chart based on that data. The image below covers January to March and is pretty...pretty long. As you scroll forever, note the size of the pie slices and you head towards March.
(Click on image to open in new browser tab and click on image again to enlarge)

   

When I saw the March distribution of sales, the size of the $400,000 - $499,999 and $500,000 – 599,999 slices caught my eye. I couldn’t remember sales in these ranges being that high this early last year. So, I went and pulled the March tables as far back as I could (to 2012) and here they are below.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1111]

March 2015 sales under $1million exceed all three previous years by 13 to 21 sales. The increase in volume seems to be distributed in the price ranges from $400,000 to $799,999 compared to the last two years, but not 2012. I’m not sure if I should read anything into this, but I wonder if incredible low mortgage rates are having an impact. Are buyers saying, “At these rates, we can afford to borrow more (since monthly payment threshold remains the same) and buy our “dream” home now. Or, we could just be seeing lower mainlanders moving to the SC after selling their crack shacks for a gazillion dollars and buying up for what they now think of as cheap, cheap, cheap.

Detached Median Sales Price:

I mentioned at the beginning of my first stats post directly above that I have recalculated the Sunshine Coast median sales price going back to 2012. My impetus - to remove “$1mill+” property sales which I feel significantly distort the data. As I’ve mentioned before, my primary sales data source has been SC Realtor© Gary Little’s web stats. Initially, he used to report the average sales price every month but changed to the median sales price in 2014. However, if you compare his figure with the REBGV you will note they don’t match. Here’s why:

REBGV SDH Median Sales Price = MOPs + SDHs + $1mill plus sales
Gary Little Median Sales Price = SDHs + $1mill plus sales

I’ve decided walk a line between the two because I am going to include MOPs but remove the ‘$1mill+’ properties. After looking at the monthly sales figures, there have been many months where the value of a mobile on a pad has exceeded in value one, two even up to three of the lower priced single detached homes on a lot; so, I agree with the board on this one and feel MOPs should be included in my median sales price.

Skook Median Sales Price = MOPs + SDHs - $1mill plus sales

In the image below, the top table contains my recalculated median sales prices and the charted results are on the right. My older table and chart (I used Little’s data) follow and are included for comparison. Note the yearly “AVG” figure in my table compared to Little’s – up to $20,000 difference in come years. Compare also the vertical axis labels between the two charts – I think that is noteworthy.

Comparing the tables month by month, you will notice some significant changes. Now, imagine you want to put your house on the market and you think its value is $425,000. Which table/chart would give a more accurate picture of the market’s current and historical median sales price?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1112]

Here’s some more supporting data for the step I’m taking. Last month, there were two MOP sales: $69,000 and $183,000. The lowest single detached home sale on a lot: $181,123. There were two ‘$mill plus’ property sales: $1,160,000 and $6,600,000. Generally speaking, calculating the median sales price will eliminate lowest and highest figures and find a price in the middle of what remains.

The REBGV March 2015 Median Sales Price: $418,154
Realtor© Gary Little March 2015 Median Sales Price: $424,443
Skook March 2015 Median Sales Price: $408,154

March 2015 SC Average Sales Price (with MOPs & ‘$mill+’ sales): $544,455
March 2015 SC Average Sales Price (removed ‘$mill+’ sales): $415,011

Ya gotta love that first average sales price with its million dollar home sales, eh? Now, if you’re determined to find a buyer for that $425,000 home of yours what should your list price be set at based on the above information? Or, perhaps based on the information above, you’re overvaluing your home...hmm?

MLS® HPI & Benchmark Price:

I think the 1.5% rise in the HPI last month reflects that movement toward homes in the higher price ranges that I mention above. I don’t believe it signals an end just yet to falling home prices – my new Median Sales Price table continues to show a downward trendline). I still think that even though buyers can borrow more due to falling mortgage rates they still want a bargain. It’s the “Wal-Mart” effect: the commoditization of the market place...LOL. I think that is why the Benchmark has flat lined over the last year. So, don’t get too excited over the higher HPI figures so far this year compared to 2014 – look at what happened in 2013. We just don’t know what “shocks” may or may not lie ahead.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1113]

I am going to reduce the size of the Benchmark Price table to 2012 – 2015 in future posts. This month’s post can act as a reference if you need earlier data. I will keep the Benchmark Price chart as is.

To be cont’d...


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04-16-2015, 09:23 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-16-2015, 09:50 AM by Skook.)
#4
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Detached Sales-to-List Ratio:

Local Realtors© are suddenly making a big deal out of the SC having a “balanced” market when my Sales-to-Listing chart has shown a balanced market since our 2007 real estate melt down. Mind you in the last few years, the market barely snuck into balanced territory, but it was in there none the less. So, how are we doing so far this year?

Let’s start with an historical overview for the January, February, and March sales-to-list ratios going back to 2001. I’ve stuck this in for interest sake because on month-to-month basis I don’t think it means a whole lot because of that relationship between sales and new listings. But, it gives you something to think and talk about.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1114]

What’s of more value, in my opinion, is the year-to-date sales-to-list ratio. At the end of March, we’re standing at 38% - barely into balanced market conditions. This is despite three months of substantially higher sales compared to past years.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1115]

The REBGV Sunshine Coast Detached chart directly below on the left explains why we’re at 38% - it’s because of the new listings added over the first three months particularly in March (dark blue column) – definitely up compared to a year ago.

However, what’s more noteworthy in that chart is the level of total active detached listings which are down significantly from last year. At the end of March 2013, the figure came in at 677 and one year it’s 544 – a difference of 133 (data source: Realtor© Gary Little’s listing map).

If this lower supply of detached homes continues, we could eventually see a turnaround in falling home prices, but only if demand holds at present levels or greater. In the short term, we could see prices level out or inch up in certain price ranges depending on current supply. Those good old market forces of “supply and demand” will dictate.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1116]

This completes the January to March 2015 SC sales stats postings. I need a drink – I’m sure you do, too.

******************************

I would like to add just a few more words. I have no idea how long I will continue to post. I’m doing okay, but I’m very tired. I’ll drop everything else and stick solely with stats if I find it too much. As well, I’m not sure how much life is left for the forum. It exists through the generosity of another not me. Perhaps by the end of year, we will both be “done like dinner.” So, I suggest if there are stats or any other info you would like to keep then grab it now while the getting is good. Smile


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04-16-2015, 10:49 AM,
#5
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
Thanks so much as always, Sir Skook. Broadly mirrors word-for-word (or number-for-number) what I'm seeing on Bowen. Cheers - Jimmy
Reply
06-14-2015, 05:38 PM, (This post was last modified: 06-14-2015, 05:53 PM by Skook.)
#6
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
I hate to do this but I’m going to have to post the stats with very little comment. I’m all packed and am hitting the road tomorrow for an extended holiday after two months hard work on the property which fell to wrack and ruin with all my troubles last year. I’ll be heading to the Sunshine Coast for a few days and then back to the lower mainland and onto the Cariboo for a good visit with some old SC buddies. I’m looking forward to stimulating conversations, good laughs and a welcome change of scenery. I’ll be back mid-July and maybe will add comments then...or maybe not. If anyone would like to add their interpretations, jump right in. So, without further ado...

April & May, 2015 SC Sales Stats

I would like to draw your attention to April’s detached home sales figure. At the beginning of the month, Gary Little had 58 sales; however, at some point in the month he made a correction and dropped it to 57 and the change occurred in Gibsons’ sales. I managed to catch that change when I went back to double check my data a few days before the end of the month. By the way, the REBGV is reporting 60 detached sales in April – three obviously didn’t pan out.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1138]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1139]

Single Detached Home Sales

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1140]

Detached Home Sales by Price Range

(Click on image - it will open in a new tab and then click on image again to enlarge)
   

Single Detached Home Median Sales Price

This will be the last time I include SC Realtor® Median Sales Price Data. I wanted to include it this month to point out something interesting – the trendline. You will notice with my data (which removes ‘$1mill+’ property sales) the trendline is much flatter and therefore my chart will likely indicate a turnaround in home prices (rising) far sooner than Little’s data. This will be interesting to watch.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1142]


MLS HPI & Benchmark Price

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1143]
The April drop from peak was -21.8%

The SDH Sales to Listing Ratio

As I mentioned above, Gary Little made a correction to his detached homes sales figure dropping it from 58 to 57. I’ve just noticed I failed to correct the historical table for April directly below. April 2015 should read 51%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1144]

Oops, I just realized I haven’t prepped the REBGV monthly charts for the SC...well, too late now. I’ll add them when I get back in July.


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08-14-2015, 03:53 PM, (This post was last modified: 08-17-2015, 03:20 AM by Skook.)
#7
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
June – July 2015 SC RE Sales Stats

Let’s begin with some “Real Estate Reflections” from SC Realtor® Kenan MacKenzie...

Quote:Market Update for July 31, 2015

Sales are up and listings are down

Sunshine Coast Detached listings
There are currently 572575 detached listings on the Sunshine Coast. This is way down from last year in which there were 762605 detached listings’ Detached sales year-to-date ending July 31, 2015: 407 344 sales, in 2014: 345290 sales; in 2013: 295 sales, and in 2012: 328 sales. The current market’s hot price range is between $301,000 and $400,000 with 130 sales occurring in this price range. With the current sales pace, this represents a 10 month supply of listings.

Whooeee, and you thought the Vancouver market was stupid hot. ROFLOL...the rest of the report carries on in the same vein; so, I’ll stop right here. Anyone picking up the Coast Report on August 7th must have thought they had died on gone to real estate heaven.

Well, my stat numbers aren’t as exciting as Kenan’s but they’ll still bring a smile to a local realtor’s face and maybe a home owner or two. Starting with the 2015 month to month breakdown we see June soared and fell back to earth a bit in July with the later drop more than likely due to holidays – buyers and Realtors ® traditionally seem to agree on a breather in July.

On a year-over-year basis, total June sales jumped ahead +46% and July up a whopping +73%. You gotta love those numbers. Once again, I’ve included year-to-date attached sales and on a year-over-year basis June was up +37% and July +57%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1158]

The table and chart below puts those total June and July sales into perspective. Since buyers seem determined not to let a drought and crappy local (peaking with loss of 171 full time jobs at Howe Sound Pulp and Paper), national, and international economic news deter them, at this pace we could see the best total yearly sales since 2007 (1030). Ooh Rah, to quote the US Marines...yes, sir, damn those torpedoes, full steam ahead!

Sechelt leads the five market areas in overall sales to date; however, given its population is less than half Sechelt’s, those Gibsons sales figures are quite extraordinary. On a year-to-date, year-over-year basis all five SC market areas are cooking with gas.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1159]

Now to everyone’s favourite stat – single detached home sales. The REBGV June total (DET+MOP) was the highest at 106 since 2005’s 107 sales. July’s total of 79 came close to tying 2007’s 80 sales.

(Note: I am using SC Realtor ® Gary Little’s July detached figures: 75+4MOP. The REBGV reported 81 sales in its monthly stats package and 82 DET sales in its ‘Sales By Price Range’ chart. Experience tends to show error in reporting occurs with the REBGV. We likely won’t know the correct figures until the end of the year, or by sometime next year, or maybe the year after that.)

You can wade through those detached sales figure by area and the year-to-date, year-over-year table (all markets in the green). Note though Gibsons almost tied Sechelt’s July detached sales (26 vs 27).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1160]

Detached Sales by Price Range

I will leave it up to you to look through the tables and charts. However, I will draw your attention to three items:

1. As I mentioned above, the REBGV in its July ‘Sales By Price Range’ table shows 82 detached sales and 81 detached sales in the monthy stats package. SC Realtor ® Gary Little shows 79 (75+4MOP) detached sales. Year-to-Date, the REGBV reports 426 detached sales and Gary Little 421 (400+21MOP). There was a discrepancy in April when the Board showed 60 detached sales and Little showed 57 – all other months the detached data has matched.

2. Back in May, the REGBV began reporting data in the “Other” column. I thought this might have been in error since the Board has never done so before; well, it’s continued into June and July and that data represents land sales. Year-to-date, the REBGV reports 82 land sales and Gary Little reports 77. Therefore, comparing overall year-to-date sales the Board gives us 426(DET)+102(ATT)+82(Land)=610 and Gary Little reports 421(DET)+104(ATT)+77(Land)=602. It’s a difference of only 1.3%; however, in a small market an 8 sale difference is notable. We’ll see how this ends in December.

3. There is a definite shift upwards in the 2015 Sales By Price Range data in the $200,000 to $599,000 price ranges compared to 2014. Using the July 2015 YTD % data with 2014 data in brackets, here’s my proof...
  • $200,000 to $299,000: 10.9% (15%)
  • $300,000 to $399,000: 33.6% (36.7%)
  • $400,000 to $499,999: 21.8% (16.3%)
  • $500,000 to $599,000: 13.4% (12.5%)

My guess is we’re seeing the impact of the falling Bank of Canada interest rate and its impact on mortgage rate; in other words, cheap money makes those granite countertops, stainless steel appliance, marble bathrooms and ballroom bedrooms mighty attractive. Why not, life is short and real estate prices never fall - the last five years on the Sunshine Coast were an aberration, right, and things are different now...so it’s party time!!!

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1161]

Detached Median Sales Price

Once again, I’m showing my median selling price calculations versus Gary Little’s. I began doing so with my first 2015 stats post. As I explained then, Gary Little’s calculation includes single detached home sales + million dollar property sales. The REBGV includes single detached homes sales + million dollar property sales + MOP sales. My median selling price includes single detached homes sales + MOP but removes million dollar property sales which I believe distort the median selling price data on the Sunshine Coast where the vast majority of sales are below the million dollar mark.

To round out the comparison, the Board reports a June median selling price of $395,000 and a July price of $430,000. Also note, the chart with Little’s data still shows a downward sloping trendline whereas my chart is almost flat – so I think barring a major calamity, the days of falling home prices on the SC may finally be at an end and when it turns you'll see that first in my chart.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1162]

to be cont'd...

August 17, 2015 Update: Realtor® Kenan MacKenzie has re-released his July 2015 ‘Real Estate Reflections’ in this week’s Coast Reporter. I am sure the denizens of the Sunshine Coast breathed a collective sigh of relief to learn the coast’s population would not be increasing ten-fold and change. Yes, the sales stats and listings are much more down-to-earth. To peruse this less exuberant market reflection, visit Kenan’s blog page here.


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08-15-2015, 10:43 AM, (This post was last modified: 08-16-2015, 08:00 AM by Skook.)
#8
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
June/July 2015 SC RE Sales Stats - Part 2

Home Price Index & Benchmark Price

The REBGV tells us that: so says the HPI & Benchmark then so goes the market. In other words, it indicates how prices are trending and for the Sunshine Coast that’s up. This month’s HPI stands at 131.8 which is but a tad under the Apr 2012 high of 132.1. In January 2012, the Board “rejigged” the HPI index and Benchmark which is why my HPI figures begin Jan 2012.

I wanted to show the SC Benchmark peak price which is why that data goes back to Jan 2010. The 2015 Benchmark Price continues to rise and July came in at $376,200 (-17.8% below peak); June hit $368,800 (-19.4% below peak).

Just as a refresher, here's what the Board says about the HPI:

Quote:The MLS® Home Price Index is modelled on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures the rate of price change for a basket of goods and services including food, clothing, shelter, and transportation.

Instead of measuring goods and services, the HPI measures the change in the price of housing features. Thus, the HPI measures typical, pure price change (inflation or deflation).

And, here is what it says about the Benchmark Price:

Quote:The HPI benchmarks represent the price of a typical property within each market. The HPI takes into consideration what averages and medians do not – items such as lot size, age, number of rooms, etc. These features become the composite of the ‘typical house’ in a given area.

Each month’s sales determine the current prices paid for bedrooms, bathrooms, fireplaces, etc. and apply those new values to the ‘typical’ house model.

So, in my opinion, the HPI and Benchmark are reflecting what I said above about the shift in detached sells by price range: buyers are moving into higher price ranges as a consequence of lower mortgage rates due to the Bank of Canada cutting its rates – never have mortgage rates been so low.

I would like to point out the trendline in the HPI chart – it is almost flat. In other words, selling prices are “poised” to rise – it hasn’t started yet, but its close and, again, this supports what I said above when discussing the median selling price.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1163]

Sales-to-Listings Ratio

Given what we’ve seen with the median selling price, the HPI and Benchmark Price then one can’t help but anticipate movement towards a “sellers” market. In each of June and July, the ratio jumped into the 80 percentile range due to the higher volume of sales in relation to the number of new active listings in each of those two months. Historically, you have to go back to 2005 to see the ratio hit and exceed 80%.

Hmmm, 2005. You know that was an interesting year on the SC. That year developers flooded municipal and district governments with development applications; however, I don’t think we’ll see the same scenario ten years later – not when you have Trail Bay Estates staring every potential developer in the phase and some current projects treading water (more about those soon). No, if developers are doing their homework they will be cautious.

As for that Sales-to-Listings Ratio, year-to-date it now stands at 54%; and, according to the Board, the SC is oh so close to crossing over into a “Sellers” market – a mere 1% to go.

Quote:A buyer’s market is when there are many more homes for sale than there are buyers. As a result, prices may drop over time as home owners become eager to sell their property.

A seller’s market is when interest rates are low so there are many qualified buyers and not many homes for sale. Buyers must make quick decisions and face multiple offers on the home they have chosen to buy and prices can rise.

To measure market activity, the Real Estate Board has a unique tool. It’s our Sales-to-Listings ratio which measures the balance between demand and supply.
  • a ratio of three sales for five listings means we are in a seller's market (also known as a ratio of 55 – 60%).
  • a ratio of less than 7 sales for every 20 listings means we are in a buyer’s market (also known as a ratio of less tan 35%).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1164]

To wrap up the stats, here are the REBGV July 2015 Sunshine Coast real estate charts. If you head to the Detached Average/Median Price chart (2nd below on left), you see the Board has pegged the July average selling price as just touching $500,000 mark. Remember the Board includes detached, MOP and million plus property sales. My calculation which removes the million plus properties is $442,211 – for what it’s worth.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1165]

I thought I would end with a small discussion I came across between one Adam Braden and SC realty firm The Robinson Group (mom, son and assistant) on the latter’s Facebook page. So what options do TRG offer a disheartened Mr. Braden who I fear is heading for a deep depression? Well, the average homeless working stiff can suck money out of his/her RRSP (up to $25,000 which increases to $35,000 in 2017 if we reelect the Harper Tory government). Or, he/she can go begging to family members (i.e. bank of mom & dad) to get that down payment which is all he/she really has to worry about because once he/she gets that low monthly mortgage it’s just like paying rent, right?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1166]

Okay, so his/her/their “maybe” average working income doesn’t quite cut it for buying a home and likely its best to stick to renting; on the other hand, it might be worth rolling the dice since “our market is still easier than most to get in to.” And, as we all know, when you're a homeowner you’re too sexy...too sexy for your mortgage...too sexy...too sexy for your mortgage.


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08-16-2015, 05:24 PM, (This post was last modified: 08-17-2015, 02:59 AM by Skook.)
#9
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
SC Realtors® The Robinson Group posted a very interesting document image to their Facebook page last week. It’s titled “Realtor® Report” and directly below in smaller print it says “A Research Tool Provided by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver”. I mentioned back in an April post that Realtors® can log into a portal courtesy of CREA where they can access real estate stats from any board across Canada and make reports from that data. Sunshine Coast and lower mainland Realtors® can also login to the REBGV website and access the data and I image that is how this document was produced.

There’s some interesting SC data in that report including this chart...

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1168]

I’m been looking at the chart off and on over the last two days wondering about the Y-axis and how those percentages were produced. This chart is very different from the Sales-to-Listings tables and charts I’ve produced based on the REBGV monthly stats package. I finally clued in this afternoon. The ratio is this chart is based on the month’s sales to total active listings. In the REBGV monthly data, the ratio is based on the month’s sales to total new listings.

So using Detached Sales-to-Active Listings:

June = (107/588) x 100 = 18.2 = 18%
July = (81/571) x 100 = 14.7 = 15%

Now, looking at the chart again, we see that below 12% is a “Buyer’s Market”, 12% to 22% is a “Balanced Market”, and above 22% is a “Seller’s Market”.

So, June and July are well within “Balanced” Market territory.

Now, I’ll recalculate using the data the Board makes available to the plebs – sales and new listings. Now, what does the Board tell the public...oh, right:

Quote:To measure market activity, the Real Estate Board has a unique tool. It’s our Sales-to-Listings ratio which measures the balance between demand and supply.
  • a ratio of three sales for five listings means we are in a seller's market (also known as a ratio of 55 – 60%).
  • a ratio of less than 7 sales for every 20 listings means we are in a buyer’s market (also known as a ratio of less than 35%).

Here we go:

June = (106/120) x 100 = 88.3 = 88%
July = (81/98) x 100 = 82.6 = 83%

Well, that is some unique tool, isn’t? It tells us that on the SC June and July were both helluva “Seller’s Markets”.
Every month, the REBGV does this percentage calculation for all its market areas and posts the result on the ‘MLS Listings Facts’ page for us simple folk to marvel and drool over.

Seeing those ridiculous monthly Sales-to-New List percentages is why I chose to plot Year-to-Date numbers – it was the best and only way I could make any sense of the data. After seeing the chart above from this “Realtor® Report”, I’m wondering if I should even bother since the YTD now stands at 54% (scroll up to previous post for chart).

The data for that eye opening chart above came from the table at the top of the ‘Realtor® Report’ which I have posted below.
The general public doesn’t have access to the total active listings data unless they know a Realtor® who will share. There is a way to get a figure close to it; however, I’m afraid to publicize it. Using it to redo my July calculation, I get:

(79/548) x 100 = 14.4% = 14%.

Now, the million dollar question is: Which method is a true reflection of what is taking place in the market? I think Sales-to-Active Listings reflects reality because it’s the only way to explain the daily volume of price drops I’m still seeing on the SC. In the last two weeks (Aug 2 – 16), there were 24 detached home price drops and 33 new lists/relists and some of those relists dropped prices, too. Would this be happening in a Seller’s Market with an 83% Sales-to-List ratio?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1169]

The second item of note on this Realtor® Report I have circled in red. I’ve known all year inventory levels were down and it’s due to two factors: higher sales volume last year and this year; and, falling prices so some potential sellers are holding back. That being said at July’s sales pace there's a 7 month supply of listings. However, if demand remains high in the months ahead with few new listings, then prices should begin to rise and I pointed out in my stats post above that chart trendlines seem poised to reverse.


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09-05-2015, 04:33 PM, (This post was last modified: 09-05-2015, 04:42 PM by Skook.)
#10
RE: 2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats
August 2015 SC Sales Stats

Here are a few SC sales stats to ponder. I’m afraid the rest will have to wait until the end of the month when I combine them with September’s figures. I’m heading off again and this time it’s to visit friends back east in la belle province. I’ll be visit the capital, too – so whose butt would you like me kick?

The summer holidays continued into August with some more numbers in red. We’ll have to wait and see if this is a trend or just a bit of breather. Year-over-year, total August sales are up +15% compared to 2014; although, attached sales took a dive.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1186]

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1187]


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