Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
04-17-2015, 08:44 AM, (This post was last modified: 04-17-2015, 08:49 AM by Skook.)
#1
2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
I created the Bowen Island sales stats table below based on data in the new Macdonald Realty ‘Market Hot Sheets’ which the company began producing this past December. Macdonald’s agents on BI are the mother and son team, Dee and Frazer Elliot.

Macdonald Realty produces these ‘Market Hot Sheets’ once a month covering all the REBGV market areas and posts them to their blog. You can access the Bowen Island/Gulf Island Hot Sheets via the ‘Vancouver, North Shore and Tri-Cities Real Estate Markets’ post (after clicking on post title, scroll down and look for the links under ‘Surrounding Areas’).

I have one caveat concerning the data – the sales total may include vacant land sales. I query this based on year-end data released separately by Macdonald Realty and by Dee Fraser back in December. Also, under the table’s Market Status area, ‘Listings’ represents ‘Total Active Listings’ and you will notice the figure in the ‘Inventory’ column is different - I am not sure what is included in its figures.

I am not going to comment further because I am not studying this market. My hope is the VanPeak board member JimmyWW who is keeping a close eye on BI will share his insights with us all.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1119]

Here is the REBGV Benchmark data for Bowen Island. We’re seeing it slowly rise which I believe is attributed to the ‘value’ of the homes purchased – new built vs old, features (granite counters, wood trims, etc) and so on. Again, JimmyWW might be able to elaborate on this.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1120]

I have included ‘Gulf Islands’ in the thread title; although I have no intention of creating a table from the Macdonald Realty ‘Market Hot Sheet’; If anyone else would like to take that on, please do. Rather if anyone has any comments to offer about the Gulf Islands real estate market, then feel free to post here in this thread.


Attached Files Thumbnail(s)
       
Reply
04-19-2015, 05:02 AM,
#2
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
(04-17-2015, 08:44 AM)Skook Wrote: I have one caveat concerning the data – the sales total may include vacant land sales. My hope is the VanPeak board member JimmyWW who is keeping a close eye on BI will share his insights with us all.

Here is the REBGV Benchmark data for Bowen Island. We’re seeing it slowly rise which I believe is attributed to the ‘value’ of the homes purchased – new built vs old, features (granite counters, wood trims, etc) and so on. Again, JimmyWW might be able to elaborate on this.

Hi guys

As ever, Skook's hunches are pretty close to the truth: I count three land sales and thirteen property sales since the start of the year on island. Two of those property sales have been at or around the $1.5m mark, a factor which would raise the average price of the other sales by around $150,000 apiece.

I only know the achieved price for five of the other 11 property sales. One of these was just under asking (638K against 639K) and the property sold within ten days - suggesting a) that demand is there if the price is right and b) buyers ain't dumb. The other four prices I know of are worth looking at, since each of the others went for at least 10% below asking, and in two of the four cases below assessment as well.

So it is (as with Sunshine Coast, which Skook has covered elsewhere) that a generally declining market with some evidence of seller capitulation is papered over by a couple of massive sales well over $1m, bringing up the average sales price considerably. I lack access to all of the sales data, but taking a mini-sample of the five I know about, the discount to list on average is above 10%.

I identify two micro-trends here which Skook's alluded to in his Sunshine Coast work - the impact of ultra-ultra low interest rates on the one hand; and a quiet awareness on the part of sellers that the market is past its peak on the other.

In other posts I have written of the now four $1m plus properties I know about on the island which have been languishing for seven years; there's another property which the most reliable of sources (a realtor) assures me has "chased the market down" for seven years now, its asking price reduced by 40%, only to find the market has further reduced.

As with SC, there's now a dearth of new inventory on island. This means that either buyers will be paying more, or that sales will hit a cliff if there is a buyers strike. The "Spring market" is almost over, but I'm sticking with my call made in December - I think we'll see a broadly stagnant market in 2015 and early 2016. in a year's time, the economy and interest rates may be different, but I now don't expect much real change before thee end of 2016 or early 2017.

Cheers as always, Skook, for your great work.


Jimmy
Reply
04-19-2015, 07:40 AM,
#3
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
Excellent, Jimmy. I knew I could count on you to fill in the gaps! Big Grin

Skook
Reply
04-21-2015, 07:35 AM,
#4
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
I live on Bowen and have been following the market closely for the past few years, looking for the right time to put my money down on a cut rate property. This spring, there were a burst of quick sales which surprised everyone. I spoke to Dee Elliot about this recently, and she said she honestly doesn't know whether it's part of a trend, or just random. There is so little volume on Bowen that you can't easily draw conclusions.

If Bowen's market is picking up, there are a few reasons I can think of:

1. Sellers are getting more realistic about pricing. Some of the recent quick sales were - in Dee's opinion - fairly valued. This contrasts with many other listings, which are over-priced and languish on the market for years.

2. Vancouver's market is ultra hot, which may be sending folks looking at the exurbs. Bowen is very cheap compared with West Vancouver.

3. The rental market on Bowen must have about 0.1% vacancy right now. There are at least half a dozen families searching for the same type of home, and absolutely nothing is coming up. I know some of those families are now buying out of desperation.

All this being said, anyone considering buying on Bowen should know that it has some severe long term problems, among them:

1. BC Ferries continues to increase prices much faster than inflation, and reduce service levels. This increases the cost of living and reduces the island's attractiveness to many families.

2. Island politics swing wildly from developer-friendly to green. The last council was a bunch of developers who rammed through various things. The current council is greener than Gregor. New development has effectively stopped. This will no doubt have an effect on prices (upwards) for the next three years by constraining new supply; however, at the same time you never know what council will be coming in 2017 and it may be quite expansionist again.
Reply
04-22-2015, 10:37 AM,
#5
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
Hey ttul,

Welcome to VanPeak. Great post! Hearing from a "B-Islander" who's keeping an eye on real estate there adds to the discussion, so thanks for sharing. Here's hoping you'll stick around keep us updated as the year progresses. If there is a particular topic, ttul, that would like to see addressed, feel free to start a new thread any time. Pick the forum you think is most appropropriate and go for it!

As for BI sales picking up steam, do you think the current insanely low mortgage rates are playing a role? Would we see the same level of sales if rates were 1 or 2% higher? What about those "desperate" families you mention - is it low rental stock forcing them to buy or is it low mortgage rates enabling them to buy?
Reply
04-23-2015, 05:55 AM,
#6
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
(04-21-2015, 07:35 AM)ttul Wrote: I live on Bowen and have been following the market closely for the past few years, looking for the right time to put my money down on a cut rate property. This spring, there were a burst of quick sales which surprised everyone.

If Bowen's market is picking up, there are a few reasons I can think of:

1. Sellers are getting more realistic about pricing. Some of the recent quick sales were - in Dee's opinion - fairly valued. This contrasts with many other listings, which are over-priced and languish on the market for years.

2. Vancouver's market is ultra hot, which may be sending folks looking at the exurbs. Bowen is very cheap compared with West Vancouver.

3. The rental market on Bowen must have about 0.1% vacancy right now. There are at least half a dozen families searching for the same type of home, and absolutely nothing is coming up. I know some of those families are now buying out of desperation.

All this being said, anyone considering buying on Bowen should know that it has some severe long term problems, among them:
Thanks ttul and welcome to the forum, as Skook says.

I really rate Dee Elliott and I think she's absolutely right about this; a couple of houses did look fairly priced to me. Also, there are a couple "further up the price range" (ie more expensive) that are now actually priced at or under assessment. However, I suspect there may be significant problems with them both.

There are also a number of properties that stick at around 50% over assessment as an asking price and the only conclusion I can draw from this is that the "sellers" don't want to sell - they are just looking to cash in on their "gains".

A lot of markets have seen mini-boosts from the cut in interest rates this spring. I hear lots of opinion from financial markets in my job and there's a firm view that this is the last hurrah for Canadian housing... but how many times have we heard that before?

Anyway, welcome - and please keep us updated!


Jimmy
Reply
05-03-2015, 10:29 AM,
#7
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
Snapshot update:

An incredible eight sales in April, six from one realtor. For comparison, there were something like 22 sales across the whole of 2014.

A lot of these sales were at more reasonable prices $450-700 range, which may have been a factor, but still...

PS Based on Skook's reported numbers for March, BI is now officially in seller's market territory, with there being less than six months of inventory on hand if sales keep up this stunning pace in to the summer.

I'm as bearish as they come, and these stats are amazing me. Wish we knew what was behind it all - I think ttul is right.

More when REBGV publishes its monthly tracker.
Reply
06-12-2015, 04:53 PM, (This post was last modified: 06-12-2015, 05:01 PM by Skook.)
#8
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
April - May, 2015 BI Sales Stats

I’m going to begin this Bowen Island stats report with a recent Bowen Island Undercurrent article...

Quote:Bowen realtors continue to enjoy hottest market in a decade
MERIBETH DEEN / Bowen Island Undercurrent
May 28, 2015 09:15 AM

In April, 15 homes sold on Bowen making it the busiest single month for real estate on the island since 2005. Realtor Frazer Elliott said on May 27 that things are looking equally good for sales in the month of May.

“So far 10 homes have sold this month, and there are a number of accepted offers that are currently pending,” he says. “Ten homes, though, still counts as a very good month, and there are still four days left. Things are changing day by day.”

So far this year, a total of 42 homes and 4 lots have sold on Bowen. Last year by the end of May, 19 homes and 5 lots had sold. The median price for homes on Bowen is currently $645,000.

Elliott says that with 35 homes on the market, inventory is still considered low. However, he is hopeful that more listings will come online and prices will remain stable, keeping the market steady.

The info given in that first sentence is wrong according to the stats I’ve managed to find. Here’s a table showing Jan-May data for the years 2004-2015. The sales data found for 2012 was presented in quarterly results only and I have no data for 2013 but expect its total sales to be close to 2012 results (if anyone has those figures please feel free to post them).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1130]

The table shows only April 2007 comes close to this past April (14 sales according Macdonald Realty). May 2005 set a record for this time frame but Elliot wasn’t talking about May because it wasn’t over yet. This is the issue with news reports that throw statements out without supporting data. Did Elliot show the reporter those 2005 sales stats and, if so, why aren’t they included with the story?

Now, If we can believe those year-to-date figures, 2015 sales are a gobsmacking +121% over the same period last year which means the lower mainland insanity is spreading its net ever wider. It’s amazing what cheap money will accomplish, isn’t it? I’m positive those sales reflect that Bank of Canada interest rate drop back in January which gave banks, credit unions and independent mortgage companies the green light to drop mortgage rates to truly stupid levels. This in turn has pushed lower mainlanders to equal levels of stupidity by taking on more mortgage debt for pure speculation. I believe speculation is what most of these 2015 sales represent if at year end they end up matching or exceeding 2005 total sales (83). Here are the year end detached home sale totals for the time frame 2004 – 2014:

2004(68), 2005(83), 2006(66), 2007(80), 2008(43), 2009(45), 2010(36), 2011(45), 2012(43), 2013(n/a), 2014(60)

2005-2007 were the peak years for investor money pouring into the Sunshine Coast and the majority of buyers were lower mainlanders seeking ‘passive income’ from flipping. Well, my thought is it’s happening all over again.

Here are the Bowen Island single detached home sales for the year-to-date. My source has been the Macdonald Realty monthly ‘Market Hot Sheets.’ Based on the MR data, it looks like those May 28th figures in the BI Undercurrent article didn’t change; therefore, I used its 2014 year-to-date sales total to deduce January 2014 sales. MR only began preparing a separate Bowen Island Market Hot Sheet in February 2015.

As for that ‘Inventory’ number, I have just figured out that it equals ‘active listings + sales.’ I am thinking that MR is using active listings at the end of the month to calculate the month’s total listing inventory.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1131]

Now, to avoid facing issues like the BI Undercurrent story above, I like to check my data against as many sources as possible to ensure its accurate. On January 21st this year, BI Realtor® Dee Elliot posted her ‘Market Report for 2014 Sales’ on her Facebook page. That report included the chart on the right below. I increased its size in my image editing software and although fuzzy I could see that the y-axis increments were 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and the x-axis were the months January to December.

So, the little table on the left shows single detached home sales for February to May 2014 from the Macdonald Realty ‘Market Hot Sheets’ versus the figures Dee Elliot released back in January. Guess what? Dee Elliot is Macdonald Realty’s rep on Bowen Island! We’re given the same total number of sales (using my January 2014 deduction) but there’s no match month-to-month; so, who’s messing up? If Elliot’s sales are right, where did MR get its numbers? Or, did Elliot use a chart from another year and just by coincidence attained a YTD total of 19? As each month passes, I’m more and more unwilling to accept monthly sales data as a true reflection of reality whether from Boards, Realty offices or Realtors®. (To understand why, check out the table in this Sunshine Coast stats post here and peruse this April 8th SC post.)

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1132]

Moving right along, here is the REBGV Bowen Island SDH Benchmark Sales Price data for your viewing pleasure. May’s benchmark price is a figure we haven’t seen July 2012. The rise in the benchmark is creeping closer to the last BI peak sales price. In April, the drop from that May 2012 benchmark rose to -4.8% from the previous month’s -5.4%. With May, the drop from peak price decreased further and now stands at -4.0%.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1133]

You have to think that with these fantastic sales numbers and rising benchmark prices sellers must be smiling there on Bowen Island. Well, my guess is not all. I headed to SC Realtor® Gary Little’s Interactive Real Estate Map to take a look at current Bowen Island listings. To zero in on BI, click on the small black arrow under ‘Current property database’ at the top left and choose ‘West Vancouver – Bowen Island (All)’. Drop down below the map and click the black arrow for ‘Any Area’ and choose Bowen Island in the menu. Finally, click the black arrow beside ‘All Properties’ and choose ‘Houses’. By default, the filter setting is set to ‘Price (low to high)’ for the results on the right and I made the table below based on that list. Here are the current single detached house listings by price range that Little has been given access to. In the next column, you can see how many of those listings show at least one price drop. A couple of those price drops took the property into a lower price range.

   

One thing we don’t know is how many properties are on Realtors® exclusive lists and won’t show up in the MLS system until sold. We also don’t know how my owners are chatting up visitors at the café, pub or ferry terminal and flogging their properties when they think they have a live one – a common practice according to JimmyWW.

As for bare land, there are currently 34 listings as of today; from 0.10ac to 9.93ac with a price range of $99,000 (price drop) to $5,800,000 (needs more 8s). By the way that 9.93ac land-locked property is listed at $655,000 and is located at ‘The Cape on Bowen Island.’

(Here’s hoping JimmyWW and ttul will follow this post with their insights on what’s happening on Bowen.)


Attached Files Thumbnail(s)
               
Reply
06-13-2015, 07:37 AM,
#9
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
FIRST, Skook, it's great to have you back! We all hope the steam is returning to your boiler!

SECOND, as I keep saying, there is a readily-available answer to the question of what is driving this market. Consult the DSM-5!
Reply
06-14-2015, 06:33 PM,
#10
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
DSM-5...ROFLOL

Well, this proves it for sure...Vancity Credit Union's new payday loans. Garth Turner at The Greater Fool runs with this one - worth reading today's post "The Money Changers".
Reply


Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  2016 Sunshine Coast & Bowen Island Real Estate Sales Stats Skook 13 2,879 10-31-2016, 08:44 AM
Last Post: Skook
  New Home For Sales Stats Skook 1 752 09-19-2016, 01:05 PM
Last Post: Skook
  2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats Skook 15 12,842 01-17-2016, 02:59 PM
Last Post: Jay Kay
  Gibsons Development - Island Vista Skook 11 11,589 12-18-2015, 02:09 PM
Last Post: Skook
  2015 Sunshine Coast Land Sales Skook 5 6,401 12-04-2015, 11:53 AM
Last Post: Skook
  2015 Sunshine Coast “$mill+” Property Sales Skook 5 6,467 12-04-2015, 10:59 AM
Last Post: Skook
  Mayne Island Nightmare: Selling rec property in a collapsing market. Skook 28 35,690 05-30-2015, 08:40 AM
Last Post: alexcanuck2.0
  2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats Skook 36 31,901 04-05-2015, 10:12 AM
Last Post: JimmyWW
  Bowen Island/Gulf Islands - help please? JimmyWW 42 25,878 01-29-2015, 11:43 AM
Last Post: Skook
  2014 Sunshine Coast "$1Mill+" DET Home Sales Skook 11 10,555 01-24-2015, 04:49 PM
Last Post: Skook

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | Vancouver Peak | Return to Top | | Lite (Archive) Mode | RSS Syndication