2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats

[Skook]

April - May, 2015 BI Sales Stats

I’m going to begin this Bowen Island stats report with a recent Bowen Island Undercurrent article...

Quote:Bowen realtors continue to enjoy hottest market in a decade
MERIBETH DEEN / Bowen Island Undercurrent
May 28, 2015 09:15 AM

In April, 15 homes sold on Bowen making it the busiest single month for real estate on the island since 2005. Realtor Frazer Elliott said on May 27 that things are looking equally good for sales in the month of May.

“So far 10 homes have sold this month, and there are a number of accepted offers that are currently pending,” he says. “Ten homes, though, still counts as a very good month, and there are still four days left. Things are changing day by day.”

So far this year, a total of 42 homes and 4 lots have sold on Bowen. Last year by the end of May, 19 homes and 5 lots had sold. The median price for homes on Bowen is currently $645,000.

Elliott says that with 35 homes on the market, inventory is still considered low. However, he is hopeful that more listings will come online and prices will remain stable, keeping the market steady.

The info given in that first sentence is wrong according to the stats I’ve managed to find. Here’s a table showing Jan-May data for the years 2004-2015. The sales data found for 2012 was presented in quarterly results only and I have no data for 2013 but expect its total sales to be close to 2012 results (if anyone has those figures please feel free to post them).

The table shows only April 2007 comes close to this past April (14 sales according Macdonald Realty). May 2005 set a record for this time frame but Elliot wasn’t talking about May because it wasn’t over yet. This is the issue with news reports that throw statements out without supporting data. Did Elliot show the reporter those 2005 sales stats and, if so, why aren’t they included with the story?

Now, If we can believe those year-to-date figures, 2015 sales are a gobsmacking +121% over the same period last year which means the lower mainland insanity is spreading its net ever wider. It’s amazing what cheap money will accomplish, isn’t it? I’m positive those sales reflect that Bank of Canada interest rate drop back in January which gave banks, credit unions and independent mortgage companies the green light to drop mortgage rates to truly stupid levels. This in turn has pushed lower mainlanders to equal levels of stupidity by taking on more mortgage debt for pure speculation. I believe speculation is what most of these 2015 sales represent if at year end they end up matching or exceeding 2005 total sales (83). Here are the year end detached home sale totals for the time frame 2004 – 2014:

2004(68), 2005(83), 2006(66), 2007(80), 2008(43), 2009(45), 2010(36), 2011(45), 2012(43), 2013(n/a), 2014(60)

2005-2007 were the peak years for investor money pouring into the Sunshine Coast and the majority of buyers were lower mainlanders seeking ‘passive income’ from flipping. Well, my thought is it’s happening all over again.

Here are the Bowen Island single detached home sales for the year-to-date. My source has been the Macdonald Realty monthly ‘Market Hot Sheets.’ Based on the MR data, it looks like those May 28th figures in the BI Undercurrent article didn’t change; therefore, I used its 2014 year-to-date sales total to deduce January 2014 sales. MR only began preparing a separate Bowen Island Market Hot Sheet in February 2015.

As for that ‘Inventory’ number, I have just figured out that it equals ‘active listings + sales.’ I am thinking that MR is using active listings at the end of the month to calculate the month’s total listing inventory.

Now, to avoid facing issues like the BI Undercurrent story above, I like to check my data against as many sources as possible to ensure its accurate. On January 21st this year, BI Realtor® Dee Elliot posted her ‘Market Report for 2014 Sales’ on her Facebook page. That report included the chart on the right below. I increased its size in my image editing software and although fuzzy I could see that the y-axis increments were 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and the x-axis were the months January to December.

So, the little table on the left shows single detached home sales for February to May 2014 from the Macdonald Realty ‘Market Hot Sheets’ versus the figures Dee Elliot released back in January. Guess what? Dee Elliot is Macdonald Realty’s rep on Bowen Island! We’re given the same total number of sales (using my January 2014 deduction) but there’s no match month-to-month; so, who’s messing up? If Elliot’s sales are right, where did MR get its numbers? Or, did Elliot use a chart from another year and just by coincidence attained a YTD total of 19? As each month passes, I’m more and more unwilling to accept monthly sales data as a true reflection of reality whether from Boards, Realty offices or Realtors®. (To understand why, check out the table in this Sunshine Coast stats post here and peruse this April 8th SC post.)

Moving right along, here is the REBGV Bowen Island SDH Benchmark Sales Price data for your viewing pleasure. May’s benchmark price is a figure we haven’t seen July 2012. The rise in the benchmark is creeping closer to the last BI peak sales price. In April, the drop from that May 2012 benchmark rose to -4.8% from the previous month’s -5.4%. With May, the drop from peak price decreased further and now stands at -4.0%.

You have to think that with these fantastic sales numbers and rising benchmark prices sellers must be smiling there on Bowen Island. Well, my guess is not all. I headed to SC Realtor® Gary Little’s Interactive Real Estate Map to take a look at current Bowen Island listings. To zero in on BI, click on the small black arrow under ‘Current property database’ at the top left and choose ‘West Vancouver – Bowen Island (All)’. Drop down below the map and click the black arrow for ‘Any Area’ and choose Bowen Island in the menu. Finally, click the black arrow beside ‘All Properties’ and choose ‘Houses’. By default, the filter setting is set to ‘Price (low to high)’ for the results on the right and I made the table below based on that list. Here are the current single detached house listings by price range that Little has been given access to. In the next column, you can see how many of those listings show at least one price drop. A couple of those price drops took the property into a lower price range.

   

One thing we don’t know is how many properties are on Realtors® exclusive lists and won’t show up in the MLS system until sold. We also don’t know how my owners are chatting up visitors at the café, pub or ferry terminal and flogging their properties when they think they have a live one – a common practice according to JimmyWW.

As for bare land, there are currently 34 listings as of today; from 0.10ac to 9.93ac with a price range of $99,000 (price drop) to $5,800,000 (needs more 8s). By the way that 9.93ac land-locked property is listed at $655,000 and is located at ‘The Cape on Bowen Island.’

(Here’s hoping JimmyWW and ttul will follow this post with their insights on what’s happening on Bowen.)