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2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
01-03-2013, 03:13 PM (This post was last modified: 01-09-2013 06:43 PM by jesse.)
Post: #1
Star 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
This thread outlines the rules for the 2013 VCI Price Prediction Contest.

One entry set per person.
You will need to come up with a handle.
'Anonymous' won't be accepted.

- You can guess for any or all of the items, within each of the three categories below.
- You can guess for June'13 and December'13.
- You can change your guesses before the deadline.
- All data are from REBGV official reports.
- Points are awarded for each item, for first, second, and third closest to the actual number, for both June and December, according to the following schedule:

June gauge gets
3 points for first
2 points for second
1 point for third
0 for every other entry

December gauge gets
6 points for first
4 points for second
2 points for third
0 for every other entry


- Points awarded to each contestant in a category are summed. The contestant with the most points in a category wins the category. (There will be one winner per category.)

Categories are as follows:

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012 (3 items)
1-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI
2-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI
3-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012 (3 items)
1-Greater Vancouver detached average
2-Greater Vancouver attached average
3-Greater Vancouver apartments average

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012 (8 items)
1- Burnaby South SFD
2- Coquitlam SFD
3- North Van SFD
4- New West SFD
5- West Van SFD
6- Van East SFD
7- Van West SFD
8- Richmond SFD

December 2012 data are available at
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files...ackage.pdf

Entries can be sent to me via
- a comment on this thread
- PM on vancouverpeak (jesse) or realestatetalks (jesse1)
- a comment at http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca
- a comment at vancouvercondo.info (make sure I confirm you have been entered as I may not scan all the comments.)

Entry deadline is 12:01am PST on Saturday January 26, 2013.
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01-03-2013, 04:14 PM
Post: #2
Re: 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
Can we post entries in this thread?

~Via phone thanks to Tapatalk.

Vancouver Condo Info ~ Bubble? What Bubble?
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01-03-2013, 07:46 PM
Post: #3
RE: 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
(01-03-2013 04:14 PM)admin Wrote:  Can we post entries in this thread?
Yes, I modified the original to make that clear. Some may not want their predictions to be public so I added the ability for them to contact me anonymously/privately.
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01-04-2013, 01:44 PM (This post was last modified: 01-04-2013 01:45 PM by Clockbike.)
Post: #4
RE: 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI
-16.2%
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI
-19.5%
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI
-13.8%

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average
-21.3%
-Greater Vancouver attached average
-18.7%
-Greater Vancouver apartments average
-14.1%

Don't think too deeply about my decimal places, I haven't actually put - that - much research into it.
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01-25-2013, 11:50 PM
Post: #5
RE: 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI 575000 (-3.4%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (-3.6%,-8.5%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (-3.1%,-7.5%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (-2%,-10%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-3.5%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (-4.0%,-9%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby South SFD (-3.5%, -8.5%)
- Coquitlam SFD (-3.3%,-8.0%)
- North Van SFD (-3.3%,-8.5%)
- New West SFD (-3.0%,-7%)
- West Van SFD (-4%,-9%)
- Van East SFD (-3.3%,-8%)
- Van West SFD (-3.3%, -10%)
- Richmond SFD (-3.5%,-9%)
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01-27-2013, 08:43 PM
Post: #6
RE: 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
I don't know, but the deadline looms so I might as well throw some guesses in the ring:

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI
-9%
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI
-8%
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI
-11%

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average
-11%
-Greater Vancouver attached average
-12%
-Greater Vancouver apartments average
-14%
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01-27-2013, 10:41 PM
Post: #7
RE: 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
My entry:
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (-5%, -12.5%)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (-5%,-12%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (-5%,-13%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (-5%,-12%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (-4%, -8%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (-6%,-13%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby South SFD (-4%, -9%)
- Coquitlam SFD (-5%,-13%)
- North Van SFD (-4%,-9%)
- New West SFD (-3%,-7%)
- West Van SFD (-4%,-13%)
- Van East SFD (-5%,-8%)
- Van West SFD (-4.4%, -13%)
- Richmond SFD (-4.4%,-13%)
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07-03-2013, 12:12 PM
Post: #8
RE: 2013 VCI RE Price Prediction Contest
Mid-year Stats (June 2013 vs Dec 2012)

Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (+1.9%)(vs +2.7% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (+1.7%)(vs +3.4%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (+2.2%)(vs +2.2%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (+3.5%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (+2.2%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (+17.2%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby S SFD +2.4% (vs +7.1% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
- Coquitlam SFD +0.6% (vs +6.1%)
- North Van SFD +4.4% (vs +3.6%)
- New West SFD +3.7% (vs +4.6%)
- West Van SFD +2.7% (vs +7.8%)
- Van East SFD +2.0% (vs +4.5%)
- Van West SFD +3.3% (vs +3.9%)
- Richmond SFD +0.6% (vs -0.5%)
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