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2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats
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12-09-2014, 01:41 PM,
(This post was last modified: 12-09-2014, 01:44 PM by Skook.)
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RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats
Every month the VIREB President or President-Elect offers his take on sales. Let’s take a look at those comments over the last four months...
August: Quote:President Elect Jason Finlayson is encouraged by the strong summer showing. September: Quote:The numbers don’t surprise VIREB President Blair Herbert, who anticipates healthy sales activity to continue throughout the fall. October: Quote:VIREB President Blair Herbert is encouraged by the numbers and reports that REALTORS® in the VIREB coverage area are consistently busy. November: Quote:“There were no big surprises in November,” said VIREB President Blair Herbert. “The steady growth we’re seeing in the board area continues to reflect balanced market conditions, which has been a trend for some time now.” VIREB Aug-Nov 2014 Sales Stats – Part 2 It’s time to zero in on the VIREB’s single family home sales and let’s be honest those are the only sales stats that everyone is “assumed” to be interested in. Yep, detached home sales – now the average Canadians’ favorite “must follow” pastime on a month-to-month basis as the “true and most trusted” indicator of how well our economy is doing. If those detached sales and their average sale prices are up, then we all can breathe a sigh of relief because the universe is unfolding as it should. It’s been unfolding very well on Vancouver Island when we compare single family home (SFH) sales on a month-to-month basis in 2014 versus 2013. Yes, the past two months sales have moved into the red relative to preceding months, but that is to be expected – it’s that time of the year. However, the year-to-date unit sales are substantially up as we can see in the November YTD-YOY table in the Part 1 post: Nov 2014 (4092) up +10% vs 2013 (3733); up +19% vs 2012 (3425); up +13% vs 2011 (3627); and, up +12% vs 2010 (12%). As for sale prices, YTD the 2014 average SFH sale price sits at $343,110 compared to $328,105 in 2013. If the December average sales price continues at the same level, 2014 will set a new all-time high for the VIREB (See: ‘VIREB Average Sales Price (Single Family Unit) 1995 – 2012’ table in the post ‘VIREB - Historical Sales Data 1995 – 2012’) (Note: I have added the purple box shading in the tables above to highlight VIREB data corrections month-to-month.) So, everybody should be happy with the Average SFH Sales Price on the rise, right? Well, maybe the celebration should be muted because you have to remember that everything gets thrown into the pot when it comes to the “average” sale price. No, according to the Board, it’s the new MLS Home Price Index that best indicates “price trends in the market.” This is because... Quote:Average and median home prices are often misinterpreted, are affected by change in the mix of homes sold, and can swing dramatically from month to month (based on the types and prices of properties that sold in a given month). The MLS® HPI overcomes these shortcomings. So, with that in mind, the picture isn’t quite so rosy. The HPI and Benchmark Price follow the exact same trajectory and look at all that red in the tables below that indicate negative percentage changes. The November 2014 data shows not only figures lower than the preceding month but lower than both Nov 2011 and Nov 2009. Oct 2014 was lower than both Oct 2011 and Oct 2009. Do we have a trend? Are both sales and prices falling? For fun, I took the 2014 Benchmark prices to date for all areas and calculated the average: $314,873 and did the same for Jan-Nov 2013: $309,327. It will be interesting to see how December pans out especially if oil prices continue to drop. The latter could be particularly significant for the VIREB market and I will be telling you why I think so at the end of these updates. To be continued... |
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Messages In This Thread |
2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 03-16-2014, 11:33 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 04-11-2014, 04:59 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 04-18-2014, 08:22 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 08-10-2014, 11:04 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 08-10-2014, 03:42 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 08-22-2014, 12:16 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 12-09-2014, 09:58 AM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 12-09-2014, 01:41 PM
RE: 2014 VIREB Real Estate Stats - by Skook - 12-11-2014, 10:57 AM
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