2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

March 2014 Sales Stats:

SC Realtors, you did it!

March 2014 will not go down in history as the worst March for SDH sales over the last 13 years.

Nope, March 2014 will not be the worst - it'll be the 2nd worst!!

(You can check out those March detached home sales from 2001 - 2014 in the top table below.)

Okay, let’s get busy with the March 2014 stats. In the 2014 Monthly Sales table, we see that March has done much better than February especially its single detached home sales, and I would hope so it’s the start of the spring market. So, total sales by all types jumped +24% compared to February and not so much compared to January, but those January sales surprised everyone since they were the best January in 4 years. They certainly raised expectations for 2014.

Now, if we look at March’s sales on year-over-year it’s not so good. Total sales have been declining since 2011 and especially those single detached home sales. Those detached sales totals in the YOY table come from SC Realtor Gary Little’s stats. You will notice that they differ from the table above which are from the REBGV monthly stats packages. I am inclined to go with Little’s stats because his numbers may take it account sales that failed to close. This is something to keep in mind when Board’s report their monthly stats.

When an offer is made and accepted on a SDH, it will be reported as sold to the Board. However, likely a majority of those “sales” have conditions that must be met within a certain time frame - likely 30, 60, or 90 days; for example, conditions such as repairs to the roof, or septic system. But, more than likely those conditions will hinge on the buyer selling his/her home or obtaining financing. If these conditions are not met, then the sale falls through and I am sure the Board will have to be notified to correct its stats. However, we likely won’t see that correction until the end of the year; or, maybe even the year following. So, as I said let’s stick with Little’s stats since they may be closer to the mark. So, on a year-over-year basis March 2014 sales are nothing to cheer about.

(April 2nd: I have added an important note to the bottom of this post regarding this discrepancy issue.)

The next table directly below breaks down March sales (all types) by market area and compares 2014 to 2013. In the small table on the far right, we can see that both Roberts Creek and Halfmoon Bay are in the “red” on a year-to-date basis compared to 2013; Pender Harbour is coasting and that total sales (all types) are up +11% compared to Jan-Mar, 2013.

The table directly above show that March single detached home sales in Gibsons and Sechelt bettered 2013 but have failed to improve on 2012 and 2011 results. The three remaining SC market areas are in the “red” and, as we know from above, total detached homes sales continue to drop on a year-over -year basis. With the year-to-date (Jan-Mar) DSH sales, only Sechelt showed improvement over 2013. The table shows that total detached year-to-date sales (Jan-Mar) are in the “red” for the third straight year since 2011.

I recently explored the issue of “sales-to-list” ratio (new listings per month only) in the thread, ‘Sunshine Coast Real Estate: A Seller's or Buyer's Market?’ and according to the REBGV when the ratio is less than 35% it is a “buyers” market. When the ratio is equal to or greater than 55%-60%, it is a “sellers” market.

Here is the single detached home sales-to-list ratio for the first three months of 2014:

Jan: 26%, Feb: 19.2%, Mar: 25.6%

Those percentages are indicating a strong ‘buyers’ market and will likely remain so if the present pace of new listings continues. Yesterday, total single detached listings reached 647 and last year it took until May 7th to obtain that number.

Now, let’s look at the “unofficial” detached March ‘sales-by-price’ - I’ll have the official results from the REBGV within the week. Here is how those 31 sales were distributed:

• Less than $200,000 = 1 (house in Sechelt)
  
• $200,000 - $299,000 = 6
  
• $300,000 - $399,999 = 11
  
• $400,000 - $499,000 = 5 (2 in Gibsons, 2 in Sechelt, 1 in Halfmoon Bay)
  
• 1 at $700,000 (Gibsons)
  
• 1 at $835,000 (Gibsons)
  
• $900,000 - $999,999 = 2 (both in Gibsons)
  
• $1mill+ = 2 (1 in Halfmoon Bay, 1 in Gibsons)
  

There were 2 manufactured homes on acreages that are also thrown in the detached sales count but I have not included them here, but both were under $300,000.

So, not only is it a “buyers” market those buyers are no longer interested in blowing their “wad” on becoming house rich but investments poor. I honestly think they’re beginning to worry about not being able to sell down the road in 10 on ten years or so because they will be chasing a far smaller pool of buyers who will be far poorer than the baby boomer generation.

For anyone trying to sell their homes today, I think most may have to accept the fact they won’t move until they drop below assessment. This is sad, but I think it is true.

I will finish with the March SDH homes Median Sales Price, but don’t get excited that it’s up vs February. While one of those $1mill+ homes would have been removed from the calculation, the second would have remained and influenced that median sales price; so, that figure is off the mark.

I will add the sales-by-price range pie chart, the HPI and Benchmark price data when the REBGV releases it March stats and charts packages.

April 2nd Note:

There is another reason for this "detached" discrepancy between the Board tally in the 'SDH Sales 2001 - 2014' table and Little's figures that I remembered late last night. Little lists Mobile homes on Pads (MOP) separately from Detached sales in his stats. So, if you look at the 'SC March Total Sales YOY' table and add the Mobile and Detached tallies together you will see that the totals now match the Board totals for 2011 and 2012. For 2013, there is a difference of 1 sale which I believe would be a collapsed sale (likely late in Nov or Dec) that the Board has yet to account for in its stats but will likely do so at the end of 2014.

Therefore, this would increase March 2014 Detached sales to 32, March 2013 to 36, March 2012 to 40, and March 2011 to 44. The percentage differences between the years would look like this:

32 (-11%), 36 (-10%), 40 (-5%), 42

This tally change and its subsequent effect on the percent differences definitely impacts how we view the drop in March detached sales over the last 4 years. It definitely gives greater significance to the drop happening in 2013 vs 2012 and makes last month's sales drop far worse than indicated in the table. (If we compare March 2014 detached sales to March 2012, it is a significant drop of -20%)

For a few months last year, I did put Mobile sells in with Detached sales but then thought it was helpful to know how many of the sales were MOP and went back to following Little's accounting method. Now, I am not so sure. I think mid-month, I will sit down and redo all my tables to include MOP sales with detached sales and see this how this impacts percentage changes from Jan - Mar. That will be fun - not!

April 4, 2010 Update:

Here is the HPI and Benchmark Price data for March. Both show a slight increase; the HPI rose by 0.8 and the Benchmark is back up to December 2013 figure. I’m attributing the Benchmark increase to the 4 properties that sold in Gibsons in the $700,000 to $999,999 price range.

Despite the rise in the Benchmark price, the drop from the July, 2010 price peak nudged up only slightly; it now stands at -26.1% vs February’s -26.6%.

Still to come: the SDH Sales-by-Price Range YTD chart, Detached Sales-to-Listing ratio and the REBGV SC charts.