2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

Skook's 2015 stats changes:

I experimented last year with the ‘%Chg’ calculation in the tables. In July, I turned the calculation from a year-to-year (2014vs2013, 2013vs2012, etc.) to a current year vs year calculation (2014vs2013, 2014vs2012, etc.). I had got the idea from the VIREB and it seemed like a good move. However, after viewing the crazy high percentages for six months (because sales volume is too low) I’ve decided to go back to the year-to-year ‘%Chg’ calculation.

I recalculated the Sunshine Coast single detached median sales price going back to 2012. This is the major reason I am late posting the 2015 stats. To date, I have used SC Realtor Gary Little’s median sales price. He, like the REBGV, includes ‘$1mill+’ property sales in his calculation; however, I believe this inclusion exaggerates the median (and average) sales price. This is especially critical for those listing their homes when prices are dropping. I will mention this change again when I go to list the median sales price tables and charts.

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Jan-Feb-Mar 2015 SC Sales Stats

I’m posting three months of stats at one go and to make this easier on you and me I will do so in over a few days.

As usual, I’ll begin with monthly total sales by type data tables showing the 2015 month to month sales and percentage changes. This is followed by the sales by type data year-over-year comparisons (2011-2015) for January, February and March.
January 2014 saw +55% in sales vs 2013 and the upward trend continues in 2015 with its +11% increase vs 2014. February and March 2014 both saw decreases in sales volume vs 2013; however, 2015 has turned that on its head and substantially with Feb sales up +41% vs 2014 and March up a +64% vs a year ago.

This three months of data definitely support Realtor Kenan MacKenzie’s (and others) view that the latter part of 2014 heralded a turnaround for the SC. If this is the start of a new seven year cycle, I believe it is one based on falling SC home prices and falling mortgage rates. However, its continuance will depend on how the unfolding current oil shock ripples through the national economy. As well, Canadians household debt had now reached a level higher than that held by Americans just prior to their 2009 financial collapse. Will we realize this year we can’t take on any more; or, will our mad dance continue?

Data source: http://www.garylittle.ca

The SC total sales chart below nicely illustrates how total volume dropped overall from 2011 to 2013 and then turned around in 2014. The March 2015 great leap upward may portend great sales in the months ahead, but not prices because the latter will be influenced by the number of active sales listings and how desperate sellers are to move their properties. Believe me, listing price drops are continuing in 2015.

Data source:www.garylittle.ca

As for residential sales by area (tables above), January started slowly for both Gibsons and Halfmoon Bay areas on a year-to-year basis; however, Roberts Creek took off like a rocket and continues to far outpace 2014 sales – March YTD (18 sales) up +500% vs 2014 YTD (3 sales). In February and March, all market areas are in the green with total Jan-Mar YTD sales up +47% vs 2014.

Single Detached Home Sales:

Look at those historical sales tables! Jan 2015 sales – you have to go back to 2003 for a match. Feb 2015 – not so exciting but up substantially over last year. March 2015 – best in eight years.

I’ll let you work your way through the single detached home sales by area tables for the last three months with their year-over-year and YTD year-over-year figures. My data source is SC Realtor Gary Little; however, unlike Little, I am including MOP sales – hence Gibsons Jan SDH sales = 7+1(MOP). Those MOP sales are included in the YTD totals. By including MOP sales, I match the REBGV single detached home sales monthly data.

To be cont'd...