2015 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

November 2015 SC Sales Stats

November sales are one for the record books. Year-over-year total sales jumped a stunning +94% and a mind boggling +146% compared to November 2013. I tell you within a certain price range if it’s not nailed down its moving!

As I mentioned in my teaser post above, my detached sales records go back to 1998 and November exceeded the previous high (63 sales in November 2003) by 11 sales. I’m not certain if a total sales record for the month was set since I haven’t those records – possibly not since land sales from 2003-2005 went through the roof.

Back to this month, detached sales up +21% from last month, attached sales +8%, MOP sales +33% with only land sales taken a breather and dropping by 5 but still coming in at a respectable 13 sales. But, year-over-year, those November land sales jumped +160%.

Attached sales keep rolling along up +42% year-to-date compared to 2014 and +71% versus 2013. There were some interesting sales taking place. When you see multiple units selling on the same day in the same development, something’s up and I’ll go in to more detail about this when I post development updates in the weeks ahead.

So, overall, we see that 2015 sales have established a new plateau but the million dollar question is, “Will this continue into 2016?” Interest rate hikes are coming and those in the know are hinting that the new Trudeau government is pressuring CMHC to raise the minimum downpayment to 10% (it could be graduated) in January. We could see crazy sales in December to beat these anticipated increases.

Residential Sales by Area

Gibsons has zoomed past Sechelt over the last two months in the year-to-date sales race – it’s now up +44% versus 2014 with Sechelt up +36%. Compared to 2013, Gibsons sales jumped +69%, but Sechelt wins the bragging rights here with sales up a crazy +80% from two years ago.

Overall, total SC sales to date stands at roughly 978 an increase of +41% versus 2014 and +74% compared to 2013. Are we poised to set a new total year-end sales record? Nope. December would need 52 sales to tie 2007 (1030 sales) – which is doable. However, we would need 293 sales to match 2005’s record year of 1271 sales and that won’t happen unless we suddenly go totally bonkers this month and so far that isn’t happening.

Single Detached Home Sales

There’s those historical sales figures going back to 1998. The YOY table shows November’s sales up +100% to last year and a stunning +208% versus 2013. Are you feeling a little dizzy at these new heights? Year-to-date figures show equally impressive sales in all SC market areas compared to 2014 and 2013 is left way back in the dust.

The single detached median sales price took a significant dive compared to the month before and the reason can be seen in the ‘Sales by Price Range’ table below – 28 sales in the $300,000 - $399,999 price range. Just to mention again, I remove all ‘$1mill+’ property sales from my median sales price calculation and include MOP sales. The REBGV reports a November median sales price of $386,500 (single detached + MOP + ‘$1mill+’ sales) and SC Realtor® Gary Little offers up $397,000 (single detached + ‘$1mill+’ sales).

Sales By Price Range

Last month, I mentioned that the YTD % total for sales in the $300,000 - $399,999 was decreasing...well, those 28 sales pumped it up again by almost a full percentage point. Lordy, it would be so interesting to find out where the buyers are coming from. My thoughts are that there's a good number of locals and a whole bunch of lower mainlanders involved and they're all buying on spec. Just a gut feeling.

   
(click on image)

Single Detached HPI & Benchmark Prices

Let’s see...what did I write about the benchmark last month? Oh, right...

Quote:Yada, yada, yada – we all know it will likely go up next month and therefore makes no sense for us plebs.

That was profound (I amaze myself...)...but it was prophetic because it went up. It now stands a mere -16.1% below the May 2012 peak price.

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Sales to Listing Ratio

I’ve been having some fun with this ratio over the last few monthly stat reports now that I discovered the REBGV has a split personality in regards to this oft cited statistic. Each month, the board offers up the ‘Sales-to-New-Listings’ ratio on the MLS® Listings Facts page, but in the monthly cover letter the board talks about the ‘Sales-to-Active-Listings’ ratio. So, here’s the November scoop on both.

Sales to New Listings Ratio

I’ve been charting this data for the last couple of years and this month the ratio reached its highest level this year – +119%. As a result, on a YTD basis the ratio jumped three percentage points from October and now stands at +65% - so aptly illustrated with my extraordinarily beautiful chart. According to the REBGV, the SC is now in a “Seller’s Market”:

Quote:To measure market activity, the Real Estate Board has a unique tool - a sales-to-listings ratio which measures the balance between demand and supply:

• a ratio of three sales for five listings means we are in a seller's market (also known as a ratio of 55 – 60%)
  
• a ratio of less than seven sales for every 20 listings means we are in a buyer’s market (also known as a ratio of less than 35%)
  

(See ‘What’s the difference between a buyer’s and seller’s market?’ on the REBGV’s FAQ website page.)

Sales to Active Listings Ratio

Now, we only have the board’s spoken word on this ratio unless you know a Realtor® who will enter a magic portal, gain access to terabytes of mysterious, privileged data and print you out a Sales Summary. Sometimes Realtors® will share this Summary with the public as the SC’s The Robinson Group did two months in a row (July and August) on their Facebook page. Yes, they have since stopped for reasons unknown unless it was just too privileged to share with one and all, or they felt it was confusing people to have two ratios, or they’re too busy setting sales records to enter the magic portal.

Therefore, I sat down today and prepared another extraordinarily beautiful chart to illustrate the ratio. I have used the REBGV detached sales figure and my own active listing data (to save time I used the listing data on the last day of the month – taking and using an average wouldn’t have made much of a difference in the long run).

So, with November’s high detached sales (single detached + MOP) and low month end active listings we get a ratio of +19.1% and what does that mean? Well, the board offers an explanation in its monthly cover letter:

Quote:Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio declines below the 12 per cent mark while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches 20 per cent, or higher, in a particular community for a sustained period of time.

So, according to the REBGV’s ‘Sale-to-Active-Listings’ Ratio on the monthly basis the Sunshine Coast went from a “Buyer’s” detached sales market in January to a “Balanced” market in June and after a brief backslide and recovery is poised to enter “Seller’s” market territory. If we take the YTD totals to calculate the ratio (694 ÷ 5744 x 100), we get +12.1% - barely balanced.

Looking back at the REBGV’s ‘Sales-to-New-Listings’ Ratio data, the small table for 2015 on the right shows the SC had a “Balanced” detached sales market for the first five months and entered into a “Seller’s” market in June and hasn’t looked back since. And, the YTD calculation has “Buyer’s” market written all over it.

So, what is it: Balanced or Buyer’s; and, why the two different ratios? Under what circumstances do you use one ratio versus the other? I’m confused and maybe the board is too.

That’s it for this month. I’m going to hold off on the REBGV charts and post them all again with December’s year end results.
It will be interesting to watch how the month unfolds. In the meantime, I’ll get busy preparing SC development updates as some are long overdue and most show very interesting results.