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Sunshine Coast - Land Sales (2014 & Historical)
12-03-2014, 02:26 PM, (This post was last modified: 12-03-2014, 02:31 PM by Skook.)
#11
RE: Sunshine Coast - Land Sales (2014 & Historical)
Nov 2014 SC Land Sales

There were 5 vacant lot sales in November: 1 in Gibsons, 2 in Sechelt and 2 in Pender Harbour. 2014 year-to-sales have already surpassed last year’s total sales (54) by a good margin and at this pace could pass 2013 total sales (65) by the end of December. However, 2011 total sales (75) remain out of reach.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1010]

November’s single lot sale in Gibsons is interesting and worth a more in-depth look. The lot is actually outside the Town of Gibsons, but Elphinstone (Area E) is included in the Gibson real estate market area.

The land in question is Lot 9 Sunset Place located in what was Phase 1 of the Georgia Crest subdivision up Harry Road. The red arrow in the lower right image below indicates its southern coast location (the numbers indicate active lot/land listings in the area). Zooming in on the “13” showed there are currently 11 lots listed in what is Phase 2 Georgia Crest. The Georgia Crest site plan shows all the lots for Phase 1 (#s 1-31) and Phase 2 (#s 33-56). The red arrow indicates our Lot 9 Sunset Place.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1011]

I have no idea of the “provenance” of Lot 9 – in other words, how many times this “historical” half acre may have been flipped. I was able to ascertain that most recently it went on the market in March 2013 (V995123) at $149,000. The asking price was eventually reduced to $129,000. The lot was relisted in August 2014 at $129,000 and it sold in November for....drum roll, please...$122,000.

Now, I just so happen to have in my possession the June 2004 Georgia Crest Phase 1 Price Map which you can feast your eyes on below. Now, I think it is safe to assume that lot 9 likely sold for $124,900 which included the then 7% GST; so, the lot was roughly valued at $116,700.

Well, now, what do you think of that ten year return on investment if the seller was the original owner - beauty, eh?

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1012]

Let’s revisit those Phase 2 Georgia Crest lots currently listed. Using SC Realtor Gary Little’s fantastic Interactive Real Estate Map, I hovered over and clicked on Lot 34 and you can see the nearly half acre lot is priced at $169,500; however, included in the images uploaded with the listing is the original 2007 Price Map and back then the lot was listed at $219,500. I’ve also added two pricing tables showing those 2007 prices and the most current.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1013]

My research seems to indicate that the $169,500 price has been around since mid-2010 and hasn’t budged since. Wow, a -22.8% drop in just three years – a fine example of what can happen to real estate and land value when there is an economic “shock” (2009 US-led banking crisis).

Now, it is important to realize Georgia Crest is in good company. You’ll find lots in Sechelt that likewise have been listed over 7 years and we won't even touch dear ‘ol Pender Harbour.


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01-24-2015, 10:08 AM, (This post was last modified: 01-24-2015, 10:11 AM by Skook.)
#12
RE: Sunshine Coast - Land Sales (2014 & Historical)
Dec 2014 SC Land Sales

There were 7 vacant land sales in December with 3 in Sechelt, 1 in Halfmoon Bay and 3 in the Pender Harbour area. 2014 total sales (68) were a definite improvement over 2013 (54) and slightly better than 2012 (65), but fell short of 2011’s 75 sales.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1050]

The increased interest in land this year was definitely influenced by falling prices particularly in the rural areas. A great example was V1082110 - Lot 20 Claydon Rd in Garden Bay (Pender Harbour). The 40.0 acre parcel went on the market in August at $599,000 dropped in November to $399,900 and sold in December at $385,000. Mind you, this was not a flat low bank waterfront parcel but it was waterfront and the views from the stop of this rising property were impressive. More than likely though, this was probably bought as an investment property.

The table and chart below put the 2014 sales in perspective. On a year-to-year basis, 2014 was a 26% improvement over 2013 but I’m not even sure I could predict reaching 2010 sales (97). It would take a massive migration to the coast to touch those 2002-2005 levels and I don’t think the Chinese are really interested in rural life anymore...LOL (or anyone else for that matter); but, heck, never-say-never.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1051]

When I can, I hope to revisit this post and offer my thoughts on future land sales. Prices are continuing to drop in the more rural areas and if we do see deflation as a result of the oil shock I can see many trying to unload vacant properties if they are paying mortgages; in fact, I am seeing it already in the towns were individuals are selling off portions of their acreages. Yes, 2015 will be an interesting year on the SC and everywhere else.


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01-24-2015, 10:38 AM,
#13
RE: Sunshine Coast - Land Sales (2014 & Historical)
Great stuff, Sir Skook - here and on the other posts. Thank you as always! Jimmy
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