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Sunshine Coast, BC: 2013 Real Estate Sales - The Big Picture
01-04-2014, 03:06 PM, (This post was last modified: 02-28-2014, 01:18 PM by Skook.)
#1
Sunshine Coast, BC: 2013 Real Estate Sales - The Big Picture
I pulled some Sunshine Coast RE sales data together to help put the 2013 sales in perspective.

SC Realtor Gary Little makes available an end-of-year summary and puts the .pdf up on his interactive map statistics page. He compares the current year just ending with the previous year’s stats. I saved his 2012 summary and combined it with the 2013 summary to create the table below.

I am not sure why Little breaks down detached sales the way he does; perhaps, this is how data is fed to the REBGV. MOP stands for Manufactured Home on Pad (Mobile Homes). As you will notice, only ‘Attached’ sales showed an increase (+8.8%) over last year; however, it is important to note the drop in Median Sales Price (-10.6%) compared to 2012.

Land sales show an increase in Median Sales Price, but it should be noted this figure was influenced by the sale of a 173 acre parcel in the District of Sechelt for $4,500,000 otherwise that figure would have been lower than 2012.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=705]

The next three charts should grab your attention as they show sales totals back to 2000. The ‘Total RE Sales’ and the ‘Land Sales’ combine data from two sources: SC Realtors Joni Selmes and Gail Brachat for the years 2000 - 2010 and Gary Little for 2011 - 2013.

The ‘Detached’ Sales data comes entirely from the REBGV’s monthly stats packages going back to 2000. All three sources do handle sales data differently. The REBGV includes detached sales from the islands (Gambier, Keats, Anvil, Nelson, and Hardy) whereas Little omits these sales. Joni & Gail do include Gambier and Keats in Gibsons sales, but I don’t know if the other islands are included. So, these variations need to be taken in consideration. However, their overall differences aren’t great enough to have a profound impact for our purposes.

After creating these tables, I thought it would be interesting to look at the past decade and calculate the percentage change between 2013 sales and the peak year of sales. Here are the results:

[Image: attachment.php?aid=706]

Looks like a real estate collapse to me especially when you factor in how many more homes have been built and how much more land has been cleared since these peaks dates; more thrown on the market chasing those elusive buyers.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=707]

To round off this perspective, here are the ‘Average Sale’ Price, ‘Median Sale’ Price and ‘Benchmark Sale’ Price charts covering the last few years. A more detailed explanation of these charts can be found in the ‘December, 2013 Sales’ post in the ‘SC Listings & Sales 2011-2013’ thread.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=708]

January 7, 2014 Update:

I am adding the Sunshine Coast 'Single Detached Home Sales by Price Range' year end tally. Without a doubt, this is important data for anyone on the coast with their home on the market or contemplating listing this year. Developers bringing new projects to market should also take heed of the results.

As you can see, the majority of SC single detached home sales under $1 million occurred in the $300,000 - $399,999 price range followed by $200,000 - $299,999. I have taken the range results and calculated their ‘percentage of total sales’ and have added these figures to the table (As %). The pie chart helps visualize the data with the price ranges starting at the top (dark blue) and moving clock-wise.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=741]

February 28, 2014 Update:


I have just replaced the Pie Chart and its data table. Please see post #3 below for the explanation as to why this was necessary.


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02-01-2014, 09:16 AM, (This post was last modified: 02-01-2014, 09:18 AM by Skook.)
#2
RE: Sunshine Coast, BC: 2013 Real Estate Sales - The Big Picture
I thought I would round out the overview of SC 2013 RE Sales with the Prudential Sussex Realtor Kenan MacKenzie’s ‘Reflections’ which appeared in the Coast Reporter January 10, 2013 Real Estate Weekly.

Quote:Market update for the Year 2013

Sunshine Coast Detached listings
There are 522 current detached listings in the same period in 2012 we had 421 detached listings. Detached sales ending December 31 there were 449 detached sales, in 2012 there were 479 sales and in 2011 there were 458 sales. The current market’s hot price range is below $400,000, with 256 sales occurring in this price range. With the current pace of sales this represents a 14 month supply of listings; we are down 30 sales over 2012.

Sunshine Coast Attached Listing
There are 147 current attached listings this is up slightly over 2012 in the same period we had 141 attached listings. Attached sales ending December 31, there were 95 sales, in 2012 there were 88 sales and in 2011 there were 94 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents a 18 month supply of listings. Attached listing represents strata unit apartments, condos and townhouses. Attached sales are up slightly over the previous year.

Sunshine Coast Land listing
There are 345 bare land listing this is up from 2012 when we had 323 listings. Land sales ending December 31 there were 59 sales, in 2012 there were 66 sales and in 2011 there were 83 sales. With the current pace of sales this represents a 70 month supply.

The Stats below are for detached sales only and for the entire Sunshine Coast:
  • $000 to $300,000 with 123 sales
  • $301,000 to $400,000 with 133 sales
  • $401,000 to $500,000 with 81 sales
  • $501,000 to $600,000 with 46 sales
  • $601,000 to $700,000 with 24 sales
  • $701,000 to $ 800,000 with 18 sales
  • $801,000 to $900,000 with 6 sales
  • $901,000 to $1,000,000 with 4 sales
  • 15 sales over a $1,000,000 this year
What can I say about 2013, other than it was a struggle. I am thank-full for the experience but I look forward to 2014 and I think all of the Sunshine Coast Realtors/Sellers would join me in this sentiment.

I like to look at the bare land listings sales as a barometer of our economy of the Sunshine Coast. Since the height of the market in 2006 where we sold 241 bare land listings the sales have steadily declined to last year sales of 59 sales. The reason this is a good barometer of the economy is imagine how many construction jobs were available in 2006 as to what is available today. For every construction job there is a multiplier effect some people say it is 2 times, so for every construction job there is another 2 created in the service industries i.e. your mechanic, cashiers, restaurants, teachers. The cycle is typically 6 to 7 years in length so if 2006/2007 was the peak 2014 should be the turn year.

Sechelt council has been particularly working hard at laying the ground work to attract new investments to the Sunshine Coast that will diversify our economy and create long lasting jobs. This hopefully soften the up and down market cycles of our Real Estate market. We should see some of these efforts come to fruit in 2014

The Sunshine Coast has some great buying opportunity for someone looking for a great deal, history shows us that it will not last and the Seller will be in the driver’s seat.

In his reflections, MacKenzie reaches back in time to 2006 when so many SC developments came on stream particularly in Sechelt: Wakefield Beach, Oracle Heights, Trail Bay Estates, and Silverstone to name just a very few. Yes, it was a great time for construction jobs that brought trades people to the coast who along with many a lower mainland RE investor snapped up so many of these new builds which, in turn, made it a very good time to be a SC Realtor.

It’s been a downhill ride ever since with MacKenzie hoping that 2014 will be the turning year. I think there will be an uptick in sales because falling prices have made the SC a buyers’ market; however, I don’t believe the RE market will ever come close to repeating what happened a decade ago - the economic factors that lead to boom are now history. So, MacKenzie is correct in his hope that the SC diversifies its economy and moves away from its dependency on construction as the main vehicle for growth.

As an aside, the first post above shows that vacant land sales actually peaked in 2004. The discrepancy between MacKenzie’s land sales figures for 2013 and 2006 and the graph depends on whether or not you include sales on the islands (Gambier, Keats, Thormanby, Nelson, etc). My source for the graph data (SC Sutton West Coast Realtors Joni Selmes and Gail Brachat) appears not to have included the island sales; however, in their new historical sales data release the opposite seems to be the case for 2013. My source for monthly SC sales data, SC Royal LePage Realtor Gary Little, does not include the islands’ sales. So, three local realty companies count the sales stats differently - something to keep in the back of your mind.

   
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02-28-2014, 01:13 PM, (This post was last modified: 03-01-2014, 03:45 PM by Skook.)
#3
RE: Sunshine Coast, BC: 2013 Real Estate Sales - The Big Picture
February 28, 2014 Update:

I have just replaced the pie chart and its data table in the first post above after discovering a significant error. I was double checking single detached home sales a few weeks back and noticed that when I added Gary Little’s year end detached home sales summary (detached 422 + MOP 26 = 448) in the first table that the total was substantially lower than what I had in my pie chart table (see below).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=742]

The data used in the table comes from the REBGV Sales by Price Range table that I include with my monthly SC sales post. When I went back to double check December’s table, I discovered that I had used the “TTL” Year-to-Date data (all types) instead of the “DET” Year-to-Date data…me bad.

There is still a 10 sales difference in Little’s and my corrected data and this is because he is including $1mill+ detached sales in his summary. If I add those 15 sales to my data table I get 438 + 15 = 443. Now, there is still an overall 5 sale shortfall between Little’s figures and the REBGV data and this is likely due to single detached “sales” falling through, but which Little hasn’t corrected for as yet. I discovered he corrected 2012 sales data sometime near the end of 2013 and you can see how those corrections played out in the table below. If Little follows the same pattern, we will likely notice a change to 2013 data sometime towards the end of this year. (Hope this makes sense…LOL).

[Image: attachment.php?aid=743]


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