2014 Sunshine Coast Monthly Sales Stats

[Skook]

At noon on November 17, this was the Globe & Mail website’s top news story:

“Canada's housing market a ‘3-city show’ as sales score best October since 2009”

The headline line caught my eye as did remarks within the article. This is what CREA’s chief economist, Gregory Klump, had to say about October’s sales...

• “While the strength of national sales activity is far from being a Canada-wide phenomenon, it extends beyond Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto,”
  
• “Sales in a number of B.C. markets have started to recover from weaker demand over the past couple of years,”
  

As you will see in the August, September and October Sunshine Coast stats below sales are the best since 2009; however, the operative word here is “sales”. You see there is a significant difference between 2009 and 2014: in 2009, property values on the SC were still rising despite the unfolding worldwide financial meltdown that year. In fact, the HPI Detached Benchmark Price would continue to rise until July, 2010 when it peaked at $457,777. As of October, 2014, that Benchmark Price sits at $353,700 – a drop of -22.7%.

Now, when you look at the Benchmark data that will be posted in Part 2, you will notice that in 2014 it has been increasing albeit slowly. In my opinion, this increase is due to two factors:

• the number of property sales valued at $1 million dollars and over
  
• the number of properties sold less than 10 years old
  

Anyone who has been following BC Assessment values for the SC knows that those values have continued to fall over the last 4 years. My June, 2013 post, Sunshine Coast's Million Dollar Babies: Hush now, don't you cry!, illustrated falling waterfront land values up and down the SC.

My March 2014 post, Sunshine Coast & Bowen Island - 2014 Property Assessment, pointed out that 2014 failed to show much if any improvement. There’s a waterfront property south of Sechelt whose land value has dropped a quarter of a million dollars (yep, $250,000) since its 2011 assessment. When SC property owners get their 2015 assessment there will be more gnashing of teeth if there was any hope of a turnaround in falling property values. That assessment will be based on market value as of July 1, 2014 and if you wanted to give 2014 SC Real Estate sales a title my suggestion would be: 2014: The Year of Listing Price Drops.

Yes, sales are the best they’ve been since 2009; but, I’m not hearing any cheering, are you?

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August, September, October SC Sales Stats – Part 1

Total real estate sales on the SC took a substantial jump in August after July’s holiday break but June’s smoking hot 93 sales will prove to be the 2014 peak. October’s -5% drop heralds the beginning of the end of this year’s turnaround in real estate sales; however, on a year-over-year basis October 2014 total sales are still +39% above 2013 sales; +21% above 2012 total sales; and, a whopping +79% above 2011 sales. This is nicely reflected in the “Total Sales by Month 2011 – 2014” chart below.

Roberts Creek continues to be the one market area of the Sunshine Coast that failed to join the party as illustrated in the “Year to Date Sales by Area” tables on the right above. Its total sales are in the red for all three months when compared to 2013 YTD sales. Perhaps there were fewer listings this year compared to 2013? If so, then my guess is that home owners are waiting for property values to rise. Well, for sure, that won’t be happening in 2015.

Single Detached Home Sales

It is here with detached home sales that we see 2014 proving to be the best year since 2009 for August and September; but look at October sales – you have to go back to 2005!

Again, I point out that in the 2001-2014 tables I use REBGV sales figures which include Manufactured on Pad (MOP) sales and may include sales on Gambier and Keats Islands. In the monthly YOY tables, I show those MOP sales (e.g. Gibsons: 12+1) while in the YTD-YOY, I have combined those MOP sales into the totals. Also, a reminder that the percentage change in the tables is 2014 vs 2013, 2014 vs 2012 and 2014 vs 2011; so, in August, Gibsons’ YOY sales for 2014 were up +18% vs 2013, on par versus 2012 sales and up +30% compared to 2011. Gibsons’ January – August 2014 sales were up 29% compared to 2013 YTD sales, down -8% compared to 2012 and up +13% compared to 2011.

Right, so we know that 2014 has been a great year for detached home sales compared at least to the last 5 years. Now, let’s look at the REBGV’s SC detached home sales by price range to find out where most buyers are heading with their money. I have broken down the data for all three months: August, September and October.

$300,000 - $399,999 continues to be “the” price point for the majority of SC buyers and by the end of October accounted for 34.8% of single detached home sales. What is noteworthy in “sales by price range” is that in August the $400,000 - $499,999 range matches the $200,000 - $299,999 range with each at 15.9% of sales, but then begins to pull ahead in September and by October is at 17.7% versus 15.3%. The reason – significant and continuous price drops for properties initially listed in the $500,000 - $599,999 range and these properties were often acreages which made those price drops doubly attractive.

The table below shows the overall single detached sales by price range. Sales of SC million dollar plus properties are posted separately here in the forum and the August, September, and October tables and chart can be found here.

to be continued...