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2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
11-27-2015, 11:47 AM,
#21
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
(11-14-2015, 01:26 PM)Skook Wrote: September – October 2015 BI Sales Stats

I’m constantly playing catch-up with these 2015 sales stats...ah, so much to do and so little time and energy. Oh well, maybe by the end of the year.

Hopefully, JimmyWW will pad out the numbers above with his thoughtful insights into the BI market. How goes the packing, Jimmy? (He and his family are moving to BI in January.)

Outstanding as ever, Skook - and please forgive the late response. My wife and I have just been dealing with the fifth hospitalization of four family members in the last 15 months. Not a good record, but yes we are still on track to move to the "dreaming isle" in January.

So here's what I know: basically your figures tally with what I am seeing. Bear in mind that from mid-November onwards, listings start to expire. That said, all that is left is the stuff no-one wants or can afford; the exception is one property on the south side of the island which is so ludicrously over-priced that not even the refugees from Kitsilano etc will touch it.

Three interesting questions from this point, maybe four:

1. What are these properties actually selling for vs list price, and how does that compare to assessment? Historically (2012-2015) the average sale price on Bowen was 4% over assessment, with outliers coming in at 15-20% above or below. My evidence (anecdotal at this stage) suggests that this was smashed in 2015, with a number of sales going at 15-20% above assessment and only a 5-10% discount to list. At least one buyer has been burned by paying list price only to discover serious repairs were required.
2. How many of the refugees from Kits, Toronto, West Side, etc who constitute the buyers - and there's no doubt about that, that's who is buying - will manage the commute, especially if both parents have to work off-island? There's a well-documented island phenomenon of folks turning up and turning back once they find out two careers are incompatible with the commute and having kids on the island.
3. What will happen to supply in 2016? Two schools of thought: 1. supply is now tapped out and you will be lucky to get a place; 2. relists at higher prices/new listings will appear and it's the buyer community that's tapped out. I really can't say about this but obviously I have a vested interest in the outcome. It seems to me that there is a pain barrier Bowen RE can't logically rise above, in that if you start paying in the 900s for a home you may as well live on the mainland. Another factor in all this is consumer debt - there may just be no more people who can take on any new money.
The fourth possible question/issue is the role of realtor hype in all this. One realtor (if you are reading this you know who you are) was in the Canadian national media talking about the ease of commuting and the low prices; we also know someone shilled the island to The Sunday Times. I hope these people understand the short-term nature of what they are doing, since this kind of hype only serves to undermine the very community spirit of which they love to boast; again anecdotally, I have heard of increases in crime, graffiti and schoolyard disputes on the island over the last 18-24 months.

Be careful what you wish for would appear to be the motto.

Let's see what 2016 brings. In all honesty - and I speak for the entire region here, not just the islands - if there's no moderation in prices this year then I struggle to believe it will ever happen.

With thanks again, Skook, for your outstanding work: we don't deserve you, and I hope you continue well.

Jimmy
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11-27-2015, 12:25 PM,
#22
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
Hey Jimmy,

So sorry to read about your family woes. I sincerely hope the worst is behind for you and your wife.

Great follow-up to my stats post - as usual. I going to sit and think about all that you've written. Would be interesting to get some "boots-on-the-ground" follow-up, too. Hey, ttul - long time no hear. Are you still following these posts? If so, what's the talk on the island?
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12-04-2015, 10:18 AM, (This post was last modified: 12-04-2015, 10:20 AM by Skook.)
#23
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
November 2015 BI Sales Stats

November single detached sales are down on a year-over-year basis just as they were in October. I’m not sure if this is significant or just a reflection of that -54% drop in inventory compared to last year – potential buyers just can’t find a property that appeals to them at their price points.

November sales were up by +4 compared to October and the median sales price suggests buyers were looking for more “modestly” priced properties then the month before. It’s interesting to note that the median sales price is down compared to 2014, too.

The mix of active listings has barely changed since my previous post. And my 2014 sales comparison table still has me scratching my head. See the previous post as well for an explanation about this table.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1213]

So, detached sales were up in November but the median sales price was down and the benchmark price dipped, too – I assume this reflects the mix of homes sold (Older? Less stainless steel? Standard countertops? No electricity? Outhouses? Aw, who knows...)

[Image: attachment.php?aid=1214]

November’s benchmark dip is still +1.4% above the May 2012 peak price.


Attached Files Thumbnail(s)
       
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12-05-2015, 09:27 AM, (This post was last modified: 12-05-2015, 09:30 AM by JimmyWW.)
#24
RE: 2015 Bowen Island/Gulf Islands Sales Stats
(12-04-2015, 10:18 AM)Skook Wrote: November 2015 BI Sales Stats

November single detached sales are down on a year-over-year basis just as they were in October. I’m not sure if this is significant or just a reflection of that -54% drop in inventory compared to last year – potential buyers just can’t find a property that appeals to them at their price points.

November sales were up by +4 compared to October and the median sales price suggests buyers were looking for more “modestly” priced properties then the month before. It’s interesting to note that the median sales price is down compared to 2014, too.

November’s benchmark dip is still +1.4% above the May 2012 peak price.

Hey Skook,

My read is it's the absence of suitable inventory. The lowest-priced home on the island has just dropped its price by $25000 to $425000. Worthy of note is that the lowest priced property a year ago was $250,000 - ominous for those of us seeking to buy?

I therefore predict, and God and Skook know I've been wrong before, that we will see no sales in December and few in January. Some of the cruddier rental properties on the island have even sold, and there is a real "renter's crisis" now, with folks who have rented on-island for >5 years unable to find any affordable accommodation.

My contacts here in TO are telling me CMHC is going to mandate 10% down minimum for all properties below $1m as well. Be interesting to see if that, plus this month's rumoured collapses in HK and Australia, have any effect on the property market in YVR and area. I stick by what I've said for years, though - no moderation by 2016 means we are stuck with this level of price for a very long time.


Jimmy

Prospective 2016 buyers might also be concerned that 1 in 4 of the properties currently listed on the island is in the >$1m bracket... yikes...
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